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Thread: 2019 Draft Class

  1. #241
    TyrannoSuarez Wrecks WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    I think they'd take Vaughn if he falls just because, and then Lodolo of course. But yeah, the big question is do they have Greene next or one of Stott, Bishop, Manoah or Thompson? I'd stay away from Bishop (K machine) and Thompson (injury), but maybe the scouts see something I don't.
    I would add Rutledge to your "after Vaughn and Lodolo" group.
    The world is a messy place. People are inconsistent and complicated. Maybe we should see how different things could be if we gave grace and forgiveness to our fellow human beings when they fail to be perfect in our eyes. -- me

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  3. #242
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kiley-mc...-chat-5-15-19/

    John: On Andrew Vaughn’s fall: How likely do you think it is that he could fall as far as #7 for the Reds?

    1:15
    Kiley McDaniel: Unlikely. We outlined the chance he falls all the way to 11 since it’s technically possible if all clubs act in a need-based way. He’s still consensus top 3, maybe 4th for like every team, so it’s hard to see him getting past 5 or 6, regardless or what we’re hearing their preferences are. 7 may be the lowest reasonable spot he could fall.
    Spider Puig: The Reds have been mentioned as a team that is especially high on Jackson Rutledge. Would they take him over Lodolo? Or is he more of a guy they wanted in the 2nd round before his stock went through the roof?

    1:18
    Kiley McDaniel: Yep, heard them tied to him over a month ago and now he looks like he’ll go in the 7-15 area, so if they think all of the top tier of pitching looks the same, they could go underslot with Rutledge
    Andrew: Loved all the details in the mock! Do the Reds consider the HS route if Witt, Abrams or Greene fall to them, or are they all in on the college guys?

    1:18
    Kiley McDaniel: I think they would talk any of those if they got there, but college hitter is what they’d like, all things being equal
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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    BillDoran (05-15-2019),RED VAN HOT (05-15-2019)

  5. #243
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    but college hitter is what they’d like, all things being equal
    A little surprised this hasn't generated much discussion yet. I'd say a few weeks ago I was of the opinion that they should go arm, but the more I've thought about it the more I like the college bat strategy. Of course if there's a pitcher there who you are in love with it makes sense to grab him, but if all things are equal the college bat seems like the smarter play. Less volatility.

    Assuming Vaughn does go off the board, I'd guess it would be between JJ Bleday (also possibly gone), Hunter Bishop, Bryson Stott, and maybe Shea Langeliers.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

  6. #244
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    Ooooof. No thanks. JUCO flamethrower?
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  7. #245
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    I like the sound of Rutledge a lot. 2 years out of HS, so essentially he's like a draft eligible college sophomore. Big guy at 6'7 and throws 5 pitches. Still prefer a hitter at 7 but as long as it's a college guy I'm ok.
    The lowest acceptable payroll amount for ownership to show they are not greedy pigs is 15 million more than they are currently paying. No matter what that currently is.

  8. #246
    TyrannoSuarez Wrecks WrongVerb's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    2019 MLB Draft Big Board 2.0

    This is one of the weaker drafts in recent memory. The college pitching class is as bad as it has been in decades. The high school classes top arm would have rated sixth or seventh for me a year ago. The high school bats are not as strong as most years either. The one area that is very strong compared to recent classes are the college bats. This is one of the better classes for college bats of the last three years; I have never had my top ten this college heavy.

    The overall depth is not as strong as last year and again a bit below average. I do like the talent for round two and three and think that is where the value might be in this draft. The issue is from pick 20 to 90 all the players are very close and will likely be all over the place based on the board you see. This is a sign of close grading and the overall issues in this class.
    3. JJ Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt

    The underproduction of Vandy players be damned; Bleday has been too good to ignore and the record for players who crush the SEC is very good. Not only did he crush the SEC all year, but he also set the Vandy record for home runs in a season and is still going. His walk percentage is strong and his contact numbers have been stellar over the last two years. He is a right fielder all the way as well, due to his strong arm. The only knocks are lack of foot speed and Vandy’s lack of production once drafted. Bleday’s performance shows a player with potential plus hit and power. Again, players who put up historic production in the SEC have been some of the safest picks over the last few years.
    5. Bryston Stott, SS, UNLV

    Stott is higher on my list than most, and a lot of this is due to how safe he is as a pick. He has one of the highest floors in this class and it would be a genuine shock if he was not a utility player worst case. His walk percentage this year is nearly 20%, which has doubled from a year ago. His strikeout percentage has more than doubled to 14%, but he is still walking more than he strikes out. He had five home runs the last two years combined; so far this year, he has 10 home runs. His BABIP has been higher every year, which is a great indicator of success. If he slides a bit on draft day, I expect it to be due to the fact that he lacks wow factor. He does everything well, but nothing great. His makeup is likely the only future plus, though I would argue so are his on-base skills, even though that is not a traditionally graded area. While there is some debate about whether he can stick at short, I think he can handle it. He has the potential to be an average shortstop with a 55-grade hit, 50-grade power, and 60-grade eye; that is a top of the lineup bat, with no major detracting factors.
    9. Nick Lodolo, LHP, TCU

    Nick Lodolo started out a little slow but has finally had the year we have been waiting for from him the last few years. I think he has the lowest ceiling of the top three college arms but also has the highest floor by far. Lodolo has kept his strikeout rate up over ten this year while nearly cutting his walk rate in half, at 1.87 walks per nine. He is a massive kid, at 6’6”, but is not overpowering. He shows three pitches, none of which look like consistent plus pitches, but all are usable in game. Lodolo has the look for a number four type of arm, maybe a number three. I don’t see a front of the rotation starter, but there is a chance for more as he fills in his frame and gets stronger. He is an extremely safe arm, though, and should move quickly through the minors. He has reached consensus top arm in the class right now.
    11 Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia

    Not long after my first list, I quickly acknowledged that my two biggest mistakes were leaving off Manoah and Jackson Rutledge. Manoah is a hulking pitcher, at 6’6” and 260 pounds. He is the fourth straight arm to parlay leading the Cape in strikeouts to a large jump up draft boards and becoming a day one pick. He should go higher than any of the previous three as well, as he looks like a top ten lock. Manoah actually got some work as a hitter his first two years, but this year has been his first one just pitching and just working as a starter. He had just 18 starts the previous two years combined. This year he has combined a strikeout rate of nearly 12 per nine with a walk rate under 2.5 per nine. His fastball touches 97 and has a nice sink, which means that when hitters do make contact, the ball often does not go far. Right now, he is mostly a fastball/slider pitcher. There has been some debate early on if he would develop his change enough to be a third pitch as a starter. I think Manoah if he goes to the right team, could be the perfect opener pitcher or multi inning heavy usage reliever. I think he could be a mid-rotation arm, but even if the third pitch does not come, then he will still have a role in the majors of value and significance.
    21. Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto JC

    Rutledge is one of those players who could easily be higher on my list, but there is one factor that scares me on him, and that is his size. I have stated over the years that I am more afraid of the developmental curves for players 6’7” and larger than I am for those 5’10” and smaller. Rutledge is 6’8” and, as one would expect from a player of his size, he has one of, if not the best, fastballs in the class. It has hit triple digits at points this year and he complements it well with a slider and curve that both flash plus. He has been on a different level all year, striking out over 14.5 per nine and allowing just eight earned runs in 13 starts over 80+ innings. One has to wonder if Arkansas had put him on their postseason roster, which might have caused him to stay, what he would have done this year facing SEC competition. If he had performed even 90% as well in the SEC he would be getting top ten talk if not top five. So through that prism, Rutledge could be a steal for a team middle of the first or later. There are some command and control concerns which, again, are very common for a player his size. The ceiling is significant and, with slight improvements to his command, there should be a rather safe floor in the back of the pen.
    If you're looking for a guy to watch if he falls to the Reds in the 2nd round, check this one out:

    37 Tyler Callihan, 3B, Providence HS (FL)

    Callihan has one of the better offensive profiles among the prep hitters in this class. It only takes one look at him to see the strength he possesses. He already has a grown man’s body and the power he shows is a natural extension of this. His natural physical strength combines with good bat speed to produce plus power. He is pretty maxed out physically, but since he can already hit 400 foot home runs, that is not a big issue. He has a strong eye at the plate as well. He has played second and catcher this year. If he could handle catcher for sure, he would be much higher on the board, or if I was sure he could stick at third long term. There is a chance he could end up at first long term. He is also old for the class, turning 21 in June. If he makes it to South Carolina, he would be a draft-eligible sophomore in two years and could be a top ten pick then.
    Good hitter out of high school could be similar to Winker, but at 1b. Reds need to draft Joey's replacement sooner rather than later, and I think this guy fits that bill.
    Last edited by WrongVerb; 05-16-2019 at 12:38 PM.
    The world is a messy place. People are inconsistent and complicated. Maybe we should see how different things could be if we gave grace and forgiveness to our fellow human beings when they fail to be perfect in our eyes. -- me

  9. #247
    Member Spanky's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    20 years old and still in high school... no wonder he can hit 400 ft Homers he's a grown man.
    The television crews left and about 10 reporters remained in the room. That's when Price took his turn doing the talking.
    What followed was a five-minute, 34-second expletive-filled tirade. The final tally was 77 uses of the "F" word or a variant and 11 uses of a vulgar term for feces (two bovine, one equine).

  10. #248
    Member Mitri's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    When it comes to the college hitters who might be there at 7, I’d say it’s Bleday or bust. I like Lodolo or Manoah much more than Stott and Bishop.

    Greene is interesting but I think they want to avoid taking a prep bat so early. They’ve found more success in the 2nd round, but if Greene falls it will be tempting.

  11. #249
    Member Spanky's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    When it comes to the college hitters who might be there at 7, I’d say it’s Bleday or bust. I like Lodolo or Manoah much more than Stott and Bishop.

    Greene is interesting but I think they want to avoid taking a prep bat so early. They’ve found more success in the 2nd round, but if Greene falls it will be tempting.
    It would be great if the 6 teams ahead of The Reds had brain cramps and Vaughn fell all the way to 7.
    The television crews left and about 10 reporters remained in the room. That's when Price took his turn doing the talking.
    What followed was a five-minute, 34-second expletive-filled tirade. The final tally was 77 uses of the "F" word or a variant and 11 uses of a vulgar term for feces (two bovine, one equine).

  12. #250
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    If the Reds want to take a college bat, I sure hope it is Stott.

  13. #251
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    Quote Originally Posted by WrongVerb View Post
    2019 MLB Draft Big Board 2.0













    If you're looking for a guy to watch if he falls to the Reds in the 2nd round, check this one out:



    Good hitter out of high school could be similar to Winker, but at 1b. Reds need to draft Joey's replacement sooner rather than later, and I think this guy fits that bill.
    Could definitely go for that. He's right here in Jax !!
    The lowest acceptable payroll amount for ownership to show they are not greedy pigs is 15 million more than they are currently paying. No matter what that currently is.

  14. #252
    Member adkindo's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    Quote Originally Posted by JaxRed View Post
    Could definitely go for that. He's right here in Jax !!
    Duuval!

  15. #253
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    was listening to Randy Mazey last night on SportsLine (a WV radio show/podcast), and he claimed that Alek Manoah is the best pitcher he has ever coached in college baseball, and specifically stated that included Jake Arrieta while @ TCU.

  16. #254
    Member NC Reds's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    Lodolo tossed 8 shutout innings against Texas Tech tonight. 13 strikeouts and no walks.

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  18. #255
    malingered here too long malcontent's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Draft Class

    Quote Originally Posted by NC Reds View Post
    Lodolo tossed 8 shutout innings against Texas Tech tonight. 13 strikeouts and no walks.
    Probably threw a lot of usable pitches.

    I really hope he's there at 7, and that Vaughn isn't.
    Last edited by malcontent; 05-17-2019 at 12:44 AM.
    Everything is perfect, but there is a lot of room for improvement. --- Shunryu Suzuki-roshi

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