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Thread: Hunter Greene

  1. #256
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Greene needs to spend at least two or three seasons building innings. He's hardly pitched since he was a Junior in High school. For me he doesn't pitch at all in 2020. 100 IP in 2021 and 130 or so in 2022 to maybe 150 or 160 in 2023. After that, he's a viable big league starter, IMO, assuming he performs. He could go faster if we want to make a reliever out of him.
    I doubt the Reds will wait that long.

    If Greene returns throwing 99-100 MPH, Reds will not want to wait until his talent fades. You want to get the great arm to the bigs while it’s still great.

    Once Reds think Greene can regularly pitch 5 innings, he’ll be up. He may need a reduced schedule at first, but Reds aren’t going to leave that ability in the minor leagues.

    My guess is he’s on the radar screen in 2022 and will be in the bigs by OD 2023 barring setbacks.
    Last edited by Kc61; 05-12-2019 at 03:56 PM.


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  3. #257
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I doubt the Reds will wait that long.

    If Greene returns throwing 99-100 MPH, Reds will not want to wait until his talent fades. You want to get the great arm to the bigs while it’s still great.

    Once Reds think Greene can regularly pitch 5 innings, he’ll be up. He may need a reduced schedule at first, but Reds aren’t going to leave that ability in the minor leagues.

    My guess is he’s on the radar screen in 2022 and will be in the bigs by OD 2023 barring setbacks.
    I hope they don't rush him. He just had surgery at the end of Spring. If they wait the 18 months that they should, he'll miss all of this year and next. In 2021 he'll be coming off of two missed seasons, a season with less than 70 innings and a year where he basically sat out as a high school senior. I hope the heck they go slow. I want six good years not six weeks.
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  4. #258
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    An interesting thing that he brought up in the interview was an observation on major league hitters. He noted how sharp they were in picking up how the slightest variation in a pitcher's delivery tips off the type of pitch. To me, that shows a level of maturity beyond most pitchers his age. I think he will be ready sooner than most.

    That said, 15 months is a framework. It does not factor in possible delays along the way. I think the Reds will be cautious. He is a special talent.

  5. #259
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    I hope they don't rush him. He just had surgery at the end of Spring. If they wait the 18 months that they should, he'll miss all of this year and next. In 2021 he'll be coming off of two missed seasons, a season with less than 70 innings and a year where he basically sat out as a high school senior. I hope the heck they go slow. I want six good years not six weeks.
    There’s a balance to this. “Going slow” ignores the other side of the equation.

    Top raw talent doesn’t hang around forever. Delaying until the pitcher’s a fully finished product may get you a readier pitcher - but whose stuff is not quite so devastating. Or, waiting may get you fewer years of the pitcher’s top stuff.

    It’s a balance, and delay can be just as damaging as “rushing.” I expect the Reds will bring Greene up the moment they feel he can effectively work five innings against big league hitting.
    Last edited by Kc61; 05-13-2019 at 04:28 PM.

  6. #260
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    There’s a balance to this. “Going slow” ignores the other side of the equation.

    Top raw talent doesn’t hang around forever. Delaying until the pitcher’s a fully finished product may get you a readier pitcher - but whose stuff is not quite so devastating. Or, waiting may get you fewer years of the pitcher’s top stuff.

    It’s a balance, and delay can be just as damaging as “rushing.” I expect the Reds will bring Greene up the moment they feel he can effectively work five innings against big league hitting.
    Except he needs to develop two other pitchers, learn to control the heater and raise his IP total (last year he threw 68.1) after missing two seasons. There's a lot to put together before you've got a good pitcher. Maybe it all happens fast, but that's mostly wishing on a star. Seems like a fast track for Greene would involve him being a closer. Then he could ride the fastball and not worry about the IP.
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  7. #261
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Except he needs to develop two other pitchers, learn to control the heater and raise his IP total (last year he threw 68.1) after missing two seasons. There's a lot to put together before you've got a good pitcher. Maybe it all happens fast, but that's mostly wishing on a star. Seems like a fast track for Greene would involve him being a closer. Then he could ride the fastball and not worry about the IP.
    All fine, but the Reds are going to try and get Greene to the bigs as quickly as possible. They didn’t pay him $7+ million in 2017 to wait until 2024 IMO. Assuming that he recovers in the normal course and doesn’t suffer major setbacks.

  8. #262
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    I doubt the Reds will wait that long.

    If Greene returns throwing 99-100 MPH, Reds will not want to wait until his talent fades. You want to get the great arm to the bigs while it’s still great.

    Once Reds think Greene can regularly pitch 5 innings, he’ll be up. He may need a reduced schedule at first, but Reds aren’t going to leave that ability in the minor leagues.

    My guess is he’s on the radar screen in 2022 and will be in the bigs by OD 2023 barring setbacks.
    Agree re what the Reds are likely to do. Not saying it’s the right or wrong move, but I think that’s the most realistic timeline the Reds will put him on. Castellini isn’t getting any younger.
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  9. #263
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    All fine, but the Reds are going to try and get Greene to the bigs as quickly as possible. They didn’t pay him $7+ million in 2017 to wait until 2024 IMO. Assuming that he recovers in the normal course and doesn’t suffer major setbacks.
    Hopefully they paid him $7M+ to realize his potential and not to see if he can survive strapping a jetpack on his back. They already kind of tried the latter and it went horribly wrong. Hopefully they learn a lesson from it.

    Yet betting on the Reds to be hasty with developing an arm and botching it is always a sound wager.
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    Screwball (05-14-2019)

  11. #264
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Hopefully they paid him $7M+ to realize his potential and not to see if he can survive strapping a jetpack on his back. They already kind of tried the latter and it went horribly wrong. Hopefully they learn a lesson from it.

    Yet betting on the Reds to be hasty with developing an arm and botching it is always a sound wager.
    Just being realistic. Reds aren’t going to wait 7 or more years from signing for Greene unless absolutely necessary. With the TJ the wait will be long enough.
    Last edited by Kc61; 05-14-2019 at 12:34 AM.

  12. #265
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    IMO, the Reds screwed the pooch when they didn't opt for the surgery when Greene went down with the injury, when anyone with half a brain knew he was headed for TJ. If they had done that, then by this time next season, he might be throwing, instead of still recovering.

  13. #266
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Tuff Nut View Post
    IMO, the Reds screwed the pooch when they didn't opt for the surgery when Greene went down with the injury, when anyone with half a brain knew he was headed for TJ. If they had done that, then by this time next season, he might be throwing, instead of still recovering.
    It was hunter and his family's request that they don't do the surgery right away and let him try to rehab his arm instead. it's always better if you don't need to be cut open.
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    HammerTime (05-14-2019)

  15. #267
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Just being realistic. Reds aren’t going to wait 7 or more years from signing for Greene unless absolutely necessary. With the TJ the wait will be long enough.
    They should have been prepared to wait 6-7 years because that was the most realistic timeline for him developing into a good MLB pitcher. If there was a way to speed up when a kid arm is ready, everybody would be doing it. There isn't. I think you're right the Reds will do something desperate to shave his time to the majors, but I'm going to quote myself from the first page of this thread.

    If you wanted to create a scenario for how to injure a young pitcher, this would be it.
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    mth123 (05-14-2019)

  17. #268
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    They should have been prepared to wait 6-7 years because that was the most realistic timeline for him developing into a good MLB pitcher. If there was a way to speed up when a kid arm is ready, everybody would be doing it. There isn't. I think you're right the Reds will do something desperate to shave his time to the majors, but I'm going to quote myself from the first page of this thread.
    My only quibble, M2, is that Greene is not your typical high school pitcher. I think the Reds would have pushed him a bit to get his stuff on the major league team, even if he wasn't fully formed.

    Now with the injury, it will be delayed, still not sure how much patience the team will ultimately have. We'll know soon enough (LOL, or maybe not so soon).

  18. #269
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    My only quibble, M2, is that Greene is not your typical high school pitcher. I think the Reds would have pushed him a bit to get his stuff on the major league team, even if he wasn't fully formed.

    Now with the injury, it will be delayed, still not sure how much patience the team will ultimately have. We'll know soon enough (LOL, or maybe not so soon).
    Well, supposedly he had a clean delivery that would help him avoid injury. The Reds definitely pushed him. All it accomplished was TJ surgery before age 20. They should have tried patience. When he comes back, they should try patience. I have said many times over the years that the worst thing for a young pitcher in this organization is if they love you. The chances that they let Hunter Greene fully recover and then ease into a regular pitching routine while he develops the secondary pitches/control/stamina he'll need seem slim.
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.

  19. #270
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    BUMP

    Hunter Greene is back and throwing a baseball.

    https://www.milb.com/ (Scroll down a little to see the tweet/Instagram/whatever it is)

    A couple of nice easy tosses.

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    BillDoran (09-05-2019)


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