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Thread: Hunter Greene

  1. #61
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    I didn't hear any complaints after his 1st two starts when his FIP was less than 1.00 and K/BB ratio was 11.0.

    Perhaps the league got a scouting report on him after two starts, perhaps what he was doing doesn't work and he needs to learn to adjust. That is absolutely a huge part of pitching. His recent control issues concern me a bit in the sense that control issues are usually the first sign of undisclosed injury. They don't concern me under the assumption he is healthy...growing pains trying to adjust.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    If he's a child coddle him like one.

    He should have started in Arizona and then gone to Billings this year like all the other children. The guy had an ERA over 10 last year in Billings too, and as mentioned before he's raw, was shut down, and was a two way player. They should have coddled the bejesus out of him.

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  5. #63
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    A lot of comments in this thread from many different perspectives. Some I agree with, some I mildly disagree with, and some I strongly disagree with. I think the nature of message boards encourages interested parties to express opinions often based on incomplete information or based on information available today that could easily change tomorrow, and then lead to a completely different opinion, maybe even the opposite opinion. When Nick Senzel was hitting .170 for Billings, there were a lot of alarms going off on RedsZone. Here is what I think:

    First of all, it doesn't really matter how good Greene is at the age of 18, does it? So that is kind of the basis for how I feel, but, here is what we know at this point:

    1) He has a power arm that is extremely rare from a historical perspective. He has hit 100 mph in most every start and 101 in one start, at the age of 18. That has not helped him much in terms of getting people out, but it does indicate a quality that you can't teach, and a quality that, over time, should give him an advantage that few pitchers have ever had. If he has the arm/body to throw a fastball at 101 in cold weather, he can also do things with his other pitches that others could only dream of.

    2) He has struggled mightily in the Midwest League. He has been in constant trouble and has pitched with runners in scoring position in almost every inning. In fact, he has given up runs in most innings, but those scoreless innings he has put up have generally involved pitching out of a tough jam.

    3) Every batter he faces is fired up to go to the plate, wants to be able to say he got a hit off this phenom, is playing with a higher than normal level of energy, thus his bat speed is just a little quicker, etc.

    4) Based on conversation with scouts who sit behind home plate, his fastball is extremely straight and the ball is easy to see out of his hand. His fastball is also too flat at this point, meaning it can be hit with a level swing at various points (batter can be a little late and still make solid contact because the pitch stays on the same plane, or even be a little early--polar opposite of Chapman's tilt, where the ball is coming in at more of a downward angle and there is a very small potential contact point available to the hitter). The fact that his pitches are both straight and flat make it easier for a hitter to "cheat" and make contact, meaning the hitter is swinging too early, but is guessing where the ball will be, and the straightness and flatness keep it on that path. These things would all seem to be correctable in time. I would take the 100 mph fastball and take my chances with fixing these issues.

    I don't know if Greene was ready to pitch in Dayton at the start of 2018. Maybe he was, maybe he wasn't. I think there was probably a desire to start him in a full-season league based on his draft position and probably a belief that even if things didn't go as well as planned, he would still be able to hold his own. But if he was not ready to pitch here, then the current results are what you would expect, even though that may not mean he is necessarily behind where he should be. He could have some things that, once corrected, allow him to show the dominance that you might have hoped for, and then he is back on track. For those people that hoped he would be in Cincinnati in 2019, that was just not realistic. The package was not refined to that point.

    Lastly, I will definitely disagree with the folks that are saying he has been unlucky because of high batting average on balls in play. This was the case in one start, the fourth last Saturday night, the 28th. In the other four starts, there were many lucky outs, far more than unlucky hits. When the ball goes in at 100 and comes back out at 100, it is usually going to be a hit somewhere. To look at traditional data and draw a conclusion that he has been unlucky is a flawed use of the data. You are ignoring the actual exit speed in your deductive process about what should be expected to be happening, and you are assuming the exit speed in his games is typical or within a standard deviation. Today, he gave up two rockets that were caught in the first inning and allowed no runs in that inning, stranding runners at first and third. In the second inning, he gave up two runs and then came out of the game with the bases loaded and all three of those runners were stranded. That could easily have been a four, five, six run outing. All that being the case, if you asked every manager he has faced to name the top pitching prospect they have seen this season, I have no doubt that there would be no hesitation in saying Hunter Greene. You can't teach 101 mph by an 18 year old.
    Last edited by redsof72; 05-04-2018 at 12:15 AM.

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  7. #64
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Good stuff '72, thanks.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

  8. #65
    Wait... What? Vander's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by redsof72 View Post
    A lot of comments in this thread from many different perspectives. Some I agree with, some I mildly disagree with, and some I strongly disagree with. I think the nature of message boards encourages interested parties to express opinions often based on incomplete information or based on information available today that could easily change tomorrow, and then lead to a completely different opinion, maybe even the opposite opinion. When Nick Senzel was hitting .170 for Billings, there were a lot of alarms going off on RedsZone. Here is what I think:

    First of all, it doesn't really matter how good Greene is at the age of 18, does it? So that is kind of the basis for how I feel, but, here is what we know at this point:

    1) He has a power arm that is extremely rare from a historical perspective. He has hit 100 mph in most every start and 101 in one start, at the age of 18. That has not helped him much in terms of getting people out, but it does indicate a quality that you can't teach, and a quality that, over time, should give him an advantage that few pitchers have ever had. If he has the arm/body to throw a fastball at 101 in cold weather, he can also do things with his other pitches that others could only dream of.

    2) He has struggled mightily in the Midwest League. He has been in constant trouble and has pitched with runners in scoring position in almost every inning. In fact, he has given up runs in most innings, but those scoreless innings he has put up have generally involved pitching out of a tough jam.

    3) Every batter he faces is fired up to go to the plate, wants to be able to say he got a hit off this phenom, is playing with a higher than normal level of energy, thus his bat speed is just a little quicker, etc.

    4) Based on conversation with scouts who sit behind home plate, his fastball is extremely straight and the ball is easy to see out of his hand. His fastball is also too flat at this point, meaning it can be hit with a level swing at various points (batter can be a little late and still make solid contact because the pitch stays on the same plane, or even be a little early--polar opposite of Chapman's tilt, where the ball is coming in at more of a downward angle and there is a very small potential contact point available to the hitter). The fact that his pitches are both straight and flat make it easier for a hitter to "cheat" and make contact, meaning the hitter is swinging too early, but is guessing where the ball will be, and the straightness and flatness keep it on that path. These things would all seem to be correctable in time. I would take the 100 mph fastball and take my chances with fixing these issues.

    I don't know if Greene was ready to pitch in Dayton at the start of 2018. Maybe he was, maybe he wasn't. I think there was probably a desire to start him in a full-season league based on his draft position and probably a belief that even if things didn't go as well as planned, he would still be able to hold his own. But if he was not ready to pitch here, then the current results are what you would expect, even though that may not mean he is necessarily behind where he should be. He could have some things that, once corrected, allow him to show the dominance that you might have hoped for, and then he is back on track. For those people that hoped he would be in Cincinnati in 2019, that was just not realistic. The package was not refined to that point.

    Lastly, I will definitely disagree with the folks that are saying he has been unlucky because of high batting average on balls in play. This was the case in one start, the fourth last Saturday night, the 28th. In the other four starts, there were many lucky outs, far more than unlucky hits. When the ball goes in at 100 and comes back out at 100, it is usually going to be a hit somewhere. To look at traditional data and draw a conclusion that he has been unlucky is a flawed use of the data. You are ignoring the actual exit speed in your deductive process about what should be expected to be happening, and you are assuming the exit speed in his games is typical or within a standard deviation. Today, he gave up two rockets that were caught in the first inning and allowed no runs in that inning, stranding runners at first and third. In the second inning, he gave up two runs and then came out of the game with the bases loaded and all three of those runners were stranded. That could easily have been a four, five, six run outing. All that being the case, if you asked every manager he has faced to name the top pitching prospect they have seen this season, I have no doubt that there would be no hesitation in saying Hunter Greene. You can't teach 101 mph by an 18 year old.
    Well reasoned post as always. Thanks.

  9. #66
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Let me first frame this by saying I'm not a professional scout and won't pretend to be one but I was at last Saturday's game in the 7th row directly behind home plate and will echo redsof72's assessment that Greene's fastball looked very straight and while a couple of the hits were pretty fluky, it appeared that the Fort Wayne batters had an easier time tracking his pitches than I'd have expected for someone throwing as hard as Greene. The velocity was excellent and the slider looked pretty good, but more than anything I think he's going to have to work on FB command and focus on trying to get FB movement on a more consistent basis, even if it means working in the mid to high 90s rather than in the 98-101 range.

    Ultimately I still like the pick, I just don't think he's going to move quite as quickly through the system as some might have hoped or expected.

  10. #67
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Maybe him not pitching nearly as much as the average high school senior pitcher had a larger effect on his development then some think. He was overhyped based off a fastball alone and hasn't faced any decent competition. With that said I'd have taken him 2nd everytime. He's so young and smart. This will make him way better in the long run. Cant wait to watch him develop.
    Last edited by ochoa30; 05-04-2018 at 01:55 AM.

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    REDREAD (05-04-2018)

  12. #68
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Unless I am having some input errors, here's how Hunter Greene's batted ball profile breaks down this year

    Line Drives: Guys are 9-10 on them. That's an easy one, they are hitting .900.
    Pop Ups: 0-1.
    Ground Balls: Guys are 9-14 on them. That's a .643 average.
    Fly Balls: Guys are 4-9 on them. That's a .444 average.

    Here's what Major Leaguers hit on those types of batted balls in 2017:
    Line drives: .633
    Ground balls: .245
    Fly balls: .217

    I'll let you guys use that information however you'd like.

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  14. #69
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by Vander View Post
    High school draftees are children. I was willing to give Santillan a year to figure things out too. I remember this forum during his 1st season after he was drafted after he got destroyed in Dayton. People were claiming he was a bust right away, that he was never going to learn any kind of control. They were being reactionary, which seems to be what this forum has turned into during the rebuild. And now? He's one of the top prospects in the system. He had to learn how to pitch.

    Hunter Greene has a minuscule amount of pitching experience under his belt. He was shut down early in his senior year and was a two-way player for the rest of high school. He had never fully devoted himself to pitching before being drafted. However, he has insane pure talent and that led to him showing very high quality pitching in his first few starts this year. The pitch count and era sucked from those starts, but it was inflated by him having insanely bad luck. Does "rushing" a kid suddenly mean every bloop and dribler is going to go for a single? He actually pitched pretty well. Over the last few starts, his control has wavered and he's been punished for it. But again, that's pretty normal for an 18 year old kid.

    Panicking at this point is just silly. Is he healthy? Seems so. Is he still maintaining his velocity? Sure is. Is he still overmatching some hitters when his control is there? You bet he is. Given all that, I could not possibly care less what is ERA is. As long as he's learning, then I'm happy.

    But next year, I want to see him kicking some ass.

    @M2 - Just stop. I said we're done talking about this.
    Seems like you are making the case for him being rushed. Yes, they are children. In his case, he didn't even pitch much as a senior in high school. Not panicking at all over Greene, but I don't think a .700 BABIP is a product of bad luck. That screams overmatched IMO. In his 9 and two thirds innings, he's walked 10, has a hit batsmen and given up 2 HR. It's not all bad luck. That small sample BABIP is just quirk of small samples and doesn't indicate much of anything other than he's getting hit.

    I'm not criticizing Greene here. I am criticizing an organization whose actions and track record reveal them to be terrible at doing just what they are trying to do with Greene. I am concerned that the organization that seems to lead young pitchers to their oblivion seems to be promoting him so aggressively. After the last couple years, he's not going to pitch a bunch of innings this season. Starting him out in full season ball doesn't accomplish much. He'll need to be shut down anyway. A season of rookie or short season ball would have been plenty of innings and seems a logical step for a kid who was basically a high school junior last time he pitched regularly. The only reason I can see for starting him at Dayton is because the Reds are anxious for a savior for it's historically awful pitching staff and are trying to speed the timeline. If the goal is help that fast, then trade him and his enormous potential for somebody closer to ready or pick somebody else with the second pick. If they want Greene to be all he can be, then do what is best for him and forget about forcing an early arrival. Rush 'em and ruin 'em. Has all the markings of a fantasy baseball GM in charge. Greene's big league timeline is 2021 or 2022. Probably 2023 for him to be an actual mid-rotation starter or better. Given his short track record, 15 or so starts of around 5 innings each seemed the right plan for 2018. Not sure why full season ball was necessary and what it accomplishes. He's not pitching deep enough into the game to be getting any real development and it just seems a wasted year that is only setting the timeline back.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  16. #70
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Seems like you are making the case for him being rushed. Yes, they are children. In his case, he didn't even pitch much as a senior in high school. Not panicking at all over Greene, but I don't think a .700 BABIP is a product of bad luck. That screams overmatched IMO. In his 9 and two thirds innings, he's walked 10, has a hit batsmen and given up 2 HR. It's not all bad luck. That small sample BABIP is just quirk of small samples and doesn't indicate much of anything other than he's getting hit.

    I'm not criticizing Greene here. I am criticizing an organization whose actions and track record reveal them to be terrible at doing just what they are trying to do with Greene. I am concerned that the organization that seems to lead young pitchers to their oblivion seems to be promoting him so aggressively. After the last couple years, he's not going to pitch a bunch of innings this season. Starting him out in full season ball doesn't accomplish much. He'll need to be shut down anyway. A season of rookie or short season ball would have been plenty of innings and seems a logical step for a kid who was basically a high school junior last time he pitched regularly. The only reason I can see for starting him at Dayton is because the Reds are anxious for a savior for it's historically awful pitching staff and are trying to speed the timeline. If the goal is help that fast, then trade him and his enormous potential for somebody closer to ready or pick somebody else with the second pick. If they want Greene to be all he can be, then do what is best for him and forget about forcing an early arrival. Rush 'em and ruin 'em. Has all the markings of a fantasy baseball GM in charge. Greene's big league timeline is 2021 or 2022. Probably 2023 for him to be an actual mid-rotation starter or better. Given his short track record, 15 or so starts of around 5 innings each seemed the right plan for 2018. Not sure why full season ball was necessary and what it accomplishes. He's not pitching deep enough into the game to be getting any real development and it just seems a wasted year that is only setting the timeline back.
    No, it's not all bad luck. His fastball has been too straight and he has struggled with control in his past few starts. The same thing happens to a huge percentage of pitchers when they're exposed to Low-A for the first time. But there has also been a great deal of bad luck. If you choose to disregard that, then that's on you.

    The Reds have definitely had issues developing pitching. However, I don't see how Greene is being "ruined" by having some bad outings in Dayton.

  17. #71
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    In other news, I have started an umbrella business because they sky is apparently falling every time Hunter takes the mound

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    Vander (05-04-2018)

  19. #72
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Everything about this start to his season makes me nervous.

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    Re: Hunter Greene

    I come back to two questions that, to me, lead to serious indictments of the organization:

    1. Why? This kid was treated with kid gloves in high school and in his first exposure to professional baseball last summer, so why go from 0-100 by pushing him to Dayton? What's the upside? Why not ease him in? It's the easiest thing in the world to promote him if he dominates at a level. If you push him and he struggles, it's much tougher to bump him down a level. I just can't see any reason for doing what the Reds did.

    2. Whether his fastball is too straight or his location is poor or his secondary pitches aren't good enough ... why didn't the Reds see this? They had an up close look at him last summer and this spring, why couldn't their evaluators see these issues? I expect fans to focus excessively on velocity, but professional evaluators should be able to recognize far more than that.

    So, it all comes back to organizational decision-making and talent evaluation -- the two chief reasons the big league club is staring down the barrel of a 100-loss season.

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  22. #74
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Teams don't expect pitchers to have a BABIP of .633. That's not something you "can see". There are a ton of guys with straight fastballs. They aren't rocking out with a BABIP of .633.

    I'm amazed at the idea that a BABIP of .700 before last night is being talked about as not involving plenty of bad luck. You guys do know how crazy that idea is don't you? Guys in the Midwest League don't hit .700 in batting practice. On straight fastballs at 55 MPH.
    Last edited by dougdirt; 05-04-2018 at 10:34 AM.

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  24. #75
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Hunter Greene

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Teams don't expect pitchers to have a BABIP of .633. That's not something you "can see". There are a ton of guys with straight fastballs. They aren't rocking out with a BABIP of .633.

    I'm amazed at the idea that a BABIP of .700 before last night is being talked about as not involving plenty of bad luck. You guys do know how crazy that idea is don't you? Guys in the Midwest League don't hit .700 in batting practice. On straight fastballs at 55 MPH.
    I'll quote redsof 72 here:

    Based on conversation with scouts who sit behind home plate, his fastball is extremely straight and the ball is easy to see out of his hand. His fastball is also too flat at this point, meaning it can be hit with a level swing at various points (batter can be a little late and still make solid contact because the pitch stays on the same plane, or even be a little early--polar opposite of Chapman's tilt, where the ball is coming in at more of a downward angle and there is a very small potential contact point available to the hitter). The fact that his pitches are both straight and flat make it easier for a hitter to "cheat" and make contact, meaning the hitter is swinging too early, but is guessing where the ball will be, and the straightness and flatness keep it on that path.
    Sounds like scouts have spotted the problem pretty well. What concerns me is the people who make the decisions were given this information and ignored it.

    I also think you're taking the wrong lesson from the BABIP. Obviously it's a crazy high number that will come down. Yet no one with Greene's heat should be getting tagged like that at that level. It's beyond luck distribution. There is an actual reason driving his uncanny hittability. Take some time to fix the things redsof72 mentioned, then you'll probably see some crazy low BABIPs.
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