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Thread: ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

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    Moderator Plus Plus's Avatar
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    ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    Welcome to the inaugural Old Red Guard weekly discussion thread! This will be a new idea implemented for this forum to help promote discussion and recognize high-quality contributions.

    Discussion will be expected to remain on the topic posted in the initial post of the thread. Readers are encouraged to like posts that they feel are quality contributions to the discussion at hand. After one week, the RedsZone member who has the post with the most likes will be recognized in the thread, and the user will have a trophy posted in their user signature with a link to the post that was identified as the best contribution to the weekly discussion.

    For our first discussion, the topic will be recent Reds' draft picks. Discussion might contain analysis of draft trends, how the previous draft picks worked out, ways that the Reds could succeed or fail in the 2018 draft, or any related information. Here are the Reds first round picks from 2004 (the year that Homer Bailey was drafted). I apologize for formatting errors; if anyone can make this more readable, please let me know!


    Year Player Position School
    2004 Homer Bailey Right-handed pitcher La Grange High School
    2005 Jay Bruce Outfielder West Brook Senior High School
    2006 Drew Stubbs Outfielder University of Texas at Austin
    2007 Devin Mesoraco Catcher Punxsutawney Area High School
    2007 Todd Frazier Third baseman Rutgers University–New Brunswick
    2007 Kyle Lotzkar Right-handed pitcher South Delta Secondary School
    2008 Yonder Alonso First baseman University of Miami
    2009 Mike Leake Right-handed pitcher Arizona State University
    2009 Bradley Boxberger Right-handed pitcher University of Southern California
    2010 Yasmani Grandal Catcher University of Miami
    2011 Robert Stephenson Right-handed pitcher Alhambra High School
    2012 Nick Travieso Right-handed pitcher Archbishop Edward A. McCarthy High School
    2012 Jesse Winker Outfielder Olympia High School
    2012 Jeff Gelalich Outfielder University of California
    2013 Phillip Ervin Outfielder Samford University
    2013 Michael Lorenzen Right-handed pitcher California State University - Fullerton
    2014 Nick Howard Right-handed pitcher University of Virginia
    2014 Alex Blandino Shortstop Stanford University
    2015 Tyler Stephenson Catcher Kennesaw Mountain High School
    2016 Nick Senzel Third Baseman University of Tennessee
    2016 Taylor Trammell Outfielder Mount Paran Christian School
    2017 Hunter Greene Right-handed pitcher Notre Dame High School
    2017 Jeter Downs Shortstop Monsignor Edward Pace High School

    Looking forward to seeing how our first weekly discussion thread works out! Please PM me with any suggestions for future discussion topics.
    Last edited by Plus Plus; 06-02-2018 at 08:24 AM.
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    Re: ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    If anybody has ever been able to figure out a particular pattern, I'll give them a shiny dime because I really haven't. It is clear from past comments as well as the proof in the pudding that the Reds like college players who perform well in the Cape Cod League (which makes sense as it shows an ability to hit with a wooden bat), and for a while they were into the controversial 'closers who they wanted to turn into starters' thing, but that's about it. I guess they do like catchers though.

    That 2007 draft, with adding Cozart in the 2nd round, is the stuff you dream of. Three solid or better regulars, boom boom boom just like that. Tremendous. I was 17 at the time and added a lot of those guys on Facebook as friends when they were drafted lol.

    2012-2014 is where things get rough, and that's just the first rounds of them. Winker, Lorenzen, Mahle, and Blandino might be the only real production they get out of those drafts. I think the failures of Travieso (who might still carve out a career but obviously not as an impact guy) and Howard (who obviously will not ever make it) show that drafting pitchers is such a crapshoot and unless you have either a Mike Leake polished product or a Hunter Greene type upside there, you're probably better off going with a bat more times than not.

    Too early to say from about 2015-on, but I think they've found the sweet spot again for the top picks, I really like all of those guys.
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

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    Re: ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    From 2004 to 2010 the players they drafted were pretty good except for Lotzkar. Whatever happened to him BTW? Bust?Injury?......

    But after that there is a noticeable drop off of talent. Were there changes in the scouting department at that time? I'm hoping the 2016 and 17 drafts prove to be a turnaround. The Reds can't afford to miss on high picks now especially since they are drafting so high.
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    Re: ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    Looking at this list points out the difficulty in nailing draft picks. I don't see more success evident in picking college vs. high school talent.

    It would be great to hit on some later picks, like the Cards seem to do on a regular basis. Something like a Rosenthal in the 21st round, or Reds killer Matt Adams in the 23rd (both in the same draft). What Reds pick that was a later-round pick stands out? I have full confidence that the answer will come quickly on this board.
    Last edited by RedsfaninMT; 05-31-2018 at 11:12 AM.

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    Re: ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsfaninMT View Post
    Looking at this list points out the difficulty in nailing draft picks. I don't see more success evident in picking college vs. high school talent.

    It would be great to hit on some later picks, like the Cards seem to do on a regular basis. Something like a Rosenthal in the 21st round, or Reds killer Matt Adams in the 23rd (both in the same draft). What Reds pick that was a later-round pick stands out? I have full confidence that the answer will come quickly on this board.
    In terms of guys who are still prospects, Shed Long came in the 12th round. Tucker Barnhart was taken in the 10th round and has turned into something special. Amir Garrett was from the 22nd round, but he signed for $1m, so I don't know if he necessarily counts. I'm sure there are more, but those are just off the top of my head.

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    Re: ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsfaninMT View Post
    It would be great to hit on some later picks, like the Cards seem to do on a regular basis. Something like a Rosenthal in the 21st round, or Reds killer Matt Adams in the 23rd (both in the same draft). What Reds pick that was a later-round pick stands out? I have full confidence that the answer will come quickly on this board.
    That was all Jeff Luhnow, they haven't had as much success in that regard, though they still draft and develop well, since his departure.


    Quote Originally Posted by Vander View Post
    Amir Garrett was from the 22nd round, but he signed for $1m, so I don't know if he necessarily counts.
    And Romano was a round later after Garrett, at $450K.
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

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    Re: ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    That was all Jeff Luhnow, they haven't had as much success in that regard, though they still draft and develop well, since his departure.



    And Romano was a round later after Garrett, at $450K.
    I think Romano is TBD at this point
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    Re: ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    Mahle was selected in the 7th round.
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    Re: ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I think Romano is TBD at this point
    1.2 fWAR so far in his career, I'd say that reaches the "stands out" qualification for later round selections.
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

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    Re: ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by cumberlandreds View Post
    From 2004 to 2010 the players they drafted were pretty good except for Lotzkar. Whatever happened to him BTW? Bust?Injury?......

    But after that there is a noticeable drop off of talent. Were there changes in the scouting department at that time? I'm hoping the 2016 and 17 drafts prove to be a turnaround. The Reds can't afford to miss on high picks now especially since they are drafting so high.
    One big reason for a falloff from 12-14 is that the Reds were winning and thus drafting lower in the rounds. It is easier to get a "big talent" with the 2nd pick than the 22nd.

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    Re: ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    Reds have had only limited success from the top draft choices in the years just preceding the rebuild, 2011-2014. This is not only reflected at the big league level, but also at the AAA and AA levels. The Louisville team is 16-33, Pensacola is 21-31.

    While minor league records are not a perfect proxy for drafting success, I'd argue that these are shocking records when one considers that the Reds have been losing and rebuilding for so long. Maybe even more shocking than the MLB record.

    But these records probably are more representative of the pre-rebuilding drafts than the more recent drafts. Indeed, the A-ball teams are quite a bit better and obviously are deeper in prospects. Daytona is at 27-20, Dayton 26-24 (although neither has a strong team ERA).

    I guess, in a way, this is a hopeful sign that the more recent drafts appear to have been better. But it's not very hopeful in terms of expected major additions to the Reds from the farm in the next year or maybe two. Nick Senzel is obviously the biggest exception.
    Last edited by Kc61; 05-31-2018 at 12:06 PM.

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    Probably not Patrick Bateman's Avatar
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    ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    The biggest thing that stands out at me is, whatever scout that was chief on the Jeff Gelalich train, I sincerely hope is not heavily involved in the process anymore.

    Every single other pick I understood the reasoning behind, to some degree. I didnt necessarily agree with them, but I understood them.

    The other thing that stands out from reviewing the list is that the organization doesnt need to have the philosophy of never trading any of these prospects. Obviously the payoff from waiting on certain players can be huge, but many of them were highly ranked at various points while struggling to produce in many ways, and many have have not improved enough to shake those issues (Travieso, Stephenson, Ervin, Stubbs). The internal talent evaluation doesnt need to stop at the time of draft day, and there could be some benefit derived through trade if the reds get to know these guys early and cash in ahead of the curve. It worked in the one instance from the players traded from this list (as prospects).

    As for the draft itself, I would suggest that excepting especially special talents the reds have faired better with the college picks. The reds developmental program has been poor for pitchers, and reducing the developmental time to the majors has appeared to bear more fruit.


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    Last edited by Patrick Bateman; 05-31-2018 at 12:51 PM.

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    Re: ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    Quote Originally Posted by Patrick Bateman View Post
    The other thing that stands out from reviewing the list is that the organization doesn’t need to have the philosophy of never trading any of these prospects. Obviously the payoff from waiting on certain players can be huge, but many of them were highly ranked at various points while struggling to produce in many ways, and many have have not improved enough to shake those issues (Travieso, Stephenson, Ervin, Stubbs). The internal talent evaluation doesn’t need to stop at the time of draft day, and there could be some benefit derived through trade if the reds get to know these guys early and cash in ahead of the curve. It worked in the one instance from the players traded from this list (as prospects).
    I agree with this. And I get it, the idea of trading any of the last few first rounders or top performers certainly makes me cringe a little, but ultimately if you can acquire quality, affordable big league talent for prospects, you have to be willing to make that move at times.
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

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    Re: ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    Reds have been good, but not great at drafting in the 1st round. The good is that they turn guys into big leaguers. The not so good is that they have gone a very, very long time at turning anyone in the draft into an actual star player.

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    Re: ORG Weekly Discussion #1 - Recent Reds' Draft Picks

    https://www.fangraphs.com/community/...picks-by-slot/

    My summary:

    From 2000-2010 (55 players in each range). Study conducted in June 2016.

    Majors: Appeared in a major league game.
    Bust: <1.5 WAR per 500 AB or 25 Pitching Appearances
    Successful: 1.5-2.5 WAR per 500 AB or 25 Pitching Appearances
    Superior: 2.5+ WAR per 500 AB or 25 Pitching Appearances

    Code:
    Overall Pick	Majors	Bust	Success Superior
    1-5		87%	60%	11%	29%
    6-10		75%	65%	15%	20%
    11-15		82%	71%	11%	18%
    16-20		78%	85%	5%	 9%
    21-25		65%	76%	11%	13%
    26-30		58%	84%	5%	11%
    
    TOTAL		74%	74%	10%	17%
    Big takeaway: Only 1 in 4 1st rounders turn in to every day players -- at least early in their career. That ranges from about 40% at the top of the first round to less than 20% at the bottom.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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