Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

[757690]

That's...not a huge range of possibilities. So we do indeed know who he is, the only question is if he has it in him to pop enough HRs to stick around.

Not a huge difference between a solid, everyday starter, and a failure as a MLB player?

[Tom Servo]

Not a huge difference between a solid, everyday starter, and a failure as a MLB player?

The latter seems like a pretty harsh way to describe your guy Duvall if he indeed is more of his 2018 self moving forward. He had a nice run, I wouldn't call him a failure.

I'll be bold and say the days of Duvall as a "solid, everyday starter" are long over. It's very unlikely anybody is gonna give him 600 PAs again, nor should they.

[757690]

The latter seems like a pretty harsh way to describe your guy Duvall if he indeed is more of his 2018 self moving forward. He had a nice run, I wouldn't call him a failure.

I'll be bold and say the days of Duvall as a "solid, everyday starter" are long over. It's very unlikely anybody is gonna give him 600 PAs again, nor should they.

He was sent to the minors. He was an MLB failure by definition.

[RedTeamGo!]

He was sent to the minors. He was an MLB failure by definition.

Shed Long was sent to the minors but you seem to say he’s been a success.

[PuffyPig]

He was sent to the minors. He was an MLB failure by definition.

It's hard to call a player who at one time made the all star team an MLB failure. You need to change the definition.

Any player who plays in the majors for any kind of extended period is not an MLB failure.

[Joey Blotto]

It's hard to call a player who at one time made the all star team an MLB failure. You need to change the definition.

Any player who plays in the majors for any kind of extended period is not an MLB failure.

I mean, he was an All-Star (and Gold Glove FINALIST) for crying out loud.

[757690]

It's hard to call a player who at one time made the all star team an MLB failure. You need to change the definition.

Any player who plays in the majors for any kind of extended period is not an MLB failure.

The point is that Duvall has been two types of players.

He was a solid league average MLB starting LF.

Then he was a guy banished to the minors. That by definition is an MLB failure.

So he’s been both a solid MLB starter and an MLB failure. All during his prime years.

Right now, he’s not an MLB failure, but he certainly was last year.

Again, we really don’t know who he is as a player, he’s been all over the place in just a short time.

[Patrick Bateman]

Duvall is what he is.

Sometimes he gets hot, often he is not.

He'll hit some HR's at the expense of a low BA.

He's not suddenly a different guy.

I'm good with this characterization...

Duvall has a sufficient track record to be defined by the larger data set, rather than picking and choosing 300 at-bat samples to define him with.

Much like he's not really an All-Star, he's not really a .650 OPS guy. He's a streaky player that has holes in his swing that can be pretty rough at times, but also pretty excellent.

Let the team spot him in favourable match-ups (primarily against lefties) and he can be a decent complimentary player on a roster... basically how the Reds have been treating Phil Ervin....

[Ron Madden]

The point is that Duvall has been two types of players.

He was a solid league average MLB starting LF.

Then he was a guy banished to the minors. That by definition is an MLB failure.

So he’s been both a solid MLB starter and an MLB failure. All during his prime years.

Right now, he’s not an MLB failure, but he certainly was last year.

Again, we really don’t know who he is as a player, he’s been all over the place in just a short time.

You sure like to argue don't ya? LOL

[PuffyPig]

The point is that Duvall has been two types of players.

He was a solid league average MLB starting LF.

Then he was a guy banished to the minors. That by definition is an MLB failure.

So, every time a player gets sent to the minors he becomes an MLB failure?

Regardless of what he does in between.

Who knew?

I'm guessing no one.

[757690]

So, every time a player gets sent to the minors he becomes an MLB failure?

Regardless of what he does in between.

Who knew?

I'm guessing no one.

Lol, and I’m the one who likes to argue.

This is a very silly semantic argument that no one else cares about. Moving on...

[RedsManRick]

Again, we really don’t know who he is as a player, he’s been all over the place in just a short time.

One of the challenges you have with guys whose overall talent level is mediocre is that they sometimes don't get the opportunity bounce back after a down cycle. That is, the guy struggles and gets demoted and then that's the end of the story. We don't know whether that's because his success was a fluke or because he just was having a bad stretch and would have returned to an acceptable level of production given the opportunity to do so.

I think what may also be true is that guys like Duvall who derive a substantial portion of their production from homers is that they are prone to having production collapses due to bad HR "luck". In 2018, Duvall's HR rate plummeted as did his BABIP. And yet, when you look at his statcast data, he was hitting the ball harder, more often. Sure, it was an objective step back from 2016, but there was no evident reason why he went from a 30 HR guy to hitting them at a 20 HR clip. All the peripherals suggested his 2018 should have been more productive than his 1.6 WAR 2017.

So who is Duvall? He looks like a ~1-2 WAR guy who had an outlier good ("career") season in 2016 and an outlier bad season in 2018.

In short, I think we often fail to give too little wiggle room in our assessment of the degree to which a guy's performance in a given year is indicative of his true talent. True talent can change, but it tends not to change that much. We should be wary of conflating changes in results with changes in talent, especially if the peripheral indicators that are closer to measures of skill don't seem to match up.

[kaldaniels]

One of the challenges you have with guys whose overall talent level is mediocre is that they sometimes don't get the opportunity bounce back after a down cycle. That is, the guy struggles and gets demoted and then that's the end of the story. We don't know whether that's because his success was a fluke or because he just was having a bad stretch and would have returned to an acceptable level of production given the opportunity to do so.

I think what may also be true is that guys like Duvall who derive a substantial portion of their production from homers is that they are prone to having production collapses due to bad HR "luck". In 2018, Duvall's HR rate plummeted as did his BABIP. And yet, when you look at his statcast data, he was hitting the ball harder, more often. Sure, it was an objective step back from 2016, but there was no evident reason why he went from a 30 HR guy to hitting them at a 20 HR clip. All the peripherals suggested his 2018 should have been more productive than his 1.6 WAR 2017.

So who is Duvall? He looks like a ~1-2 WAR guy who had an outlier good ("career") season in 2016 and an outlier bad season in 2018.

In short, I think we often fail to give too little wiggle room in our assessment of the degree to which a guy's performance in a given year is indicative of his true talent. True talent can change, but it tends not to change that much. We should be wary of conflating changes in results with changes in talent, especially if the peripheral indicators that are closer to measures of skill don't seem to match up.

Seems like part of this can apply to Schebler as well - mediocre player, down cycle, shipped to the minors and that’s it.

[Griffey012]

So, every time a player gets sent to the minors he becomes an MLB failure?

Regardless of what he does in between.

Who knew?

I'm guessing no one.

Tony Gonsolin: MLB Failure. Shouldn't have given up those 3 baserunners in 6 IP against STL the other day.

[NebraskaRed]

Back to the minors for Duvall. They've optioned him today.