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Thread: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

  1. #31
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    That's...not a huge range of possibilities. So we do indeed know who he is, the only question is if he has it in him to pop enough HRs to stick around.
    Not a huge difference between a solid, everyday starter, and a failure as a MLB player?
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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  3. #32
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Not a huge difference between a solid, everyday starter, and a failure as a MLB player?
    The latter seems like a pretty harsh way to describe your guy Duvall if he indeed is more of his 2018 self moving forward. He had a nice run, I wouldn't call him a failure.

    I'll be bold and say the days of Duvall as a "solid, everyday starter" are long over. It's very unlikely anybody is gonna give him 600 PAs again, nor should they.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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    Chip R (08-12-2019)

  5. #33
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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    The latter seems like a pretty harsh way to describe your guy Duvall if he indeed is more of his 2018 self moving forward. He had a nice run, I wouldn't call him a failure.

    I'll be bold and say the days of Duvall as a "solid, everyday starter" are long over. It's very unlikely anybody is gonna give him 600 PAs again, nor should they.
    He was sent to the minors. He was an MLB failure by definition.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  6. #34
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    He was sent to the minors. He was an MLB failure by definition.
    Shed Long was sent to the minors but you seem to say he’s been a success.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    Tom Servo (08-12-2019)

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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    He was sent to the minors. He was an MLB failure by definition.
    It's hard to call a player who at one time made the all star team an MLB failure. You need to change the definition.

    Any player who plays in the majors for any kind of extended period is not an MLB failure.

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    Ron Madden (08-12-2019)

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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    It's hard to call a player who at one time made the all star team an MLB failure. You need to change the definition.

    Any player who plays in the majors for any kind of extended period is not an MLB failure.
    I mean, he was an All-Star (and Gold Glove FINALIST) for crying out loud.

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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    It's hard to call a player who at one time made the all star team an MLB failure. You need to change the definition.

    Any player who plays in the majors for any kind of extended period is not an MLB failure.
    The point is that Duvall has been two types of players.

    He was a solid league average MLB starting LF.

    Then he was a guy banished to the minors. That by definition is an MLB failure.

    So he’s been both a solid MLB starter and an MLB failure. All during his prime years.

    Right now, he’s not an MLB failure, but he certainly was last year.

    Again, we really don’t know who he is as a player, he’s been all over the place in just a short time.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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  12. #38
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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    Duvall is what he is.

    Sometimes he gets hot, often he is not.

    He'll hit some HR's at the expense of a low BA.

    He's not suddenly a different guy.
    I'm good with this characterization...

    Duvall has a sufficient track record to be defined by the larger data set, rather than picking and choosing 300 at-bat samples to define him with.

    Much like he's not really an All-Star, he's not really a .650 OPS guy. He's a streaky player that has holes in his swing that can be pretty rough at times, but also pretty excellent.

    Let the team spot him in favourable match-ups (primarily against lefties) and he can be a decent complimentary player on a roster... basically how the Reds have been treating Phil Ervin....

  13. #39
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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The point is that Duvall has been two types of players.

    He was a solid league average MLB starting LF.

    Then he was a guy banished to the minors. That by definition is an MLB failure.

    So he’s been both a solid MLB starter and an MLB failure. All during his prime years.

    Right now, he’s not an MLB failure, but he certainly was last year.

    Again, we really don’t know who he is as a player, he’s been all over the place in just a short time.
    You sure like to argue don't ya? LOL

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    westofyou (08-12-2019)

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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The point is that Duvall has been two types of players.

    He was a solid league average MLB starting LF.

    Then he was a guy banished to the minors. That by definition is an MLB failure.
    So, every time a player gets sent to the minors he becomes an MLB failure?

    Regardless of what he does in between.

    Who knew?

    I'm guessing no one.

  16. #41
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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    So, every time a player gets sent to the minors he becomes an MLB failure?

    Regardless of what he does in between.

    Who knew?

    I'm guessing no one.
    Lol, and I’m the one who likes to argue.

    This is a very silly semantic argument that no one else cares about. Moving on...
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  17. #42
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Again, we really don’t know who he is as a player, he’s been all over the place in just a short time.
    One of the challenges you have with guys whose overall talent level is mediocre is that they sometimes don't get the opportunity bounce back after a down cycle. That is, the guy struggles and gets demoted and then that's the end of the story. We don't know whether that's because his success was a fluke or because he just was having a bad stretch and would have returned to an acceptable level of production given the opportunity to do so.

    I think what may also be true is that guys like Duvall who derive a substantial portion of their production from homers is that they are prone to having production collapses due to bad HR "luck". In 2018, Duvall's HR rate plummeted as did his BABIP. And yet, when you look at his statcast data, he was hitting the ball harder, more often. Sure, it was an objective step back from 2016, but there was no evident reason why he went from a 30 HR guy to hitting them at a 20 HR clip. All the peripherals suggested his 2018 should have been more productive than his 1.6 WAR 2017.

    So who is Duvall? He looks like a ~1-2 WAR guy who had an outlier good ("career") season in 2016 and an outlier bad season in 2018.

    In short, I think we often fail to give too little wiggle room in our assessment of the degree to which a guy's performance in a given year is indicative of his true talent. True talent can change, but it tends not to change that much. We should be wary of conflating changes in results with changes in talent, especially if the peripheral indicators that are closer to measures of skill don't seem to match up.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    757690 (08-12-2019)

  19. #43
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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    One of the challenges you have with guys whose overall talent level is mediocre is that they sometimes don't get the opportunity bounce back after a down cycle. That is, the guy struggles and gets demoted and then that's the end of the story. We don't know whether that's because his success was a fluke or because he just was having a bad stretch and would have returned to an acceptable level of production given the opportunity to do so.

    I think what may also be true is that guys like Duvall who derive a substantial portion of their production from homers is that they are prone to having production collapses due to bad HR "luck". In 2018, Duvall's HR rate plummeted as did his BABIP. And yet, when you look at his statcast data, he was hitting the ball harder, more often. Sure, it was an objective step back from 2016, but there was no evident reason why he went from a 30 HR guy to hitting them at a 20 HR clip. All the peripherals suggested his 2018 should have been more productive than his 1.6 WAR 2017.

    So who is Duvall? He looks like a ~1-2 WAR guy who had an outlier good ("career") season in 2016 and an outlier bad season in 2018.

    In short, I think we often fail to give too little wiggle room in our assessment of the degree to which a guy's performance in a given year is indicative of his true talent. True talent can change, but it tends not to change that much. We should be wary of conflating changes in results with changes in talent, especially if the peripheral indicators that are closer to measures of skill don't seem to match up.
    Seems like part of this can apply to Schebler as well - mediocre player, down cycle, shipped to the minors and that’s it.

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    757690 (08-12-2019)

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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Quote Originally Posted by PuffyPig View Post
    So, every time a player gets sent to the minors he becomes an MLB failure?

    Regardless of what he does in between.

    Who knew?

    I'm guessing no one.
    Tony Gonsolin: MLB Failure. Shouldn't have given up those 3 baserunners in 6 IP against STL the other day.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  22. #45
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    Re: Duvall the Red is way better than Duvall the Brave

    Back to the minors for Duvall. They've optioned him today.


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