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Thread: Reds pick 7th next year

  1. #31
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Reds pick 7th next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    That's a pretty nice pick. I'll take it.

    Why is our comp pick so much better than last yr?
    I don’t fully get it, but it takes some formula into account:

    Competitive Balance Rounds A and B take place after the completion of the first and second rounds, respectively. No longer determined by lottery, all teams that fell in the bottom 10 in revenue or bottom 10 in market size got a pick in Round A in 2017, after the first round, or Round B, following the second round. A formula that takes revenue and winning percentage into account was used to award six Round A picks in 2017, with eight teams getting Comp Round B picks that year.

    Last year, the groups of teams switched places, with eight Comp Round A picks and six in Round B, with Major League Baseball re-running the aforementioned formula. No teams dropped out, but the order in each round changed as a result.

    The 2019 Comp Round A will be back to six picks, with the Marlins, Rays, Reds, A's, Brewers and Twins, in that order, getting selections that currently will be picks 34 through 40 (the Pirates have a supplemental pick at No. 37 for not signing Gunnar Hoglund, the 36th pick in 2018). The Round B order will be Royals, Orioles, Prates, Padres, D-backs, Rockies, Indians and Cardinals. As of now, those selections will be picks No. 71 through 78.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    REDREAD (11-21-2018)

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  4. #32
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    Re: Reds pick 7th next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    That's a pretty nice pick. I'll take it.

    Why is our comp pick so much better than last yr?
    Because Competitive Balance teams were broken up into two groups. Teams in both groups get an extra, Comp Balance selection.

    The two groups alternate getting picks after Round 1 (group A) and picks after Round 2 (group B).

    The Reds’ group was designated “A” in the 2017 draft, so Reds drafted earlier and got Taylor Trammel.

    The Reds’ group then alternated to B for the 2018 draft, so Reds drafted later.

    The Reds’ group is now A again, so Reds will get a better pick again in the 2019 draft. Currently slated at pick 36, could change slightly.

    Reds should get three picks in the top 50 in the 2019 draft including Round 1, Competitive Balance, and Round 2.
    Last edited by Kc61; 11-20-2018 at 12:18 PM.

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    757690 (11-20-2018),drowg14 (11-20-2018),REDREAD (11-21-2018),Sea Ray (11-20-2018)

  6. #33
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Reds pick 7th next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Reds should get three picks in the top 50 in the 2019 draft including Round 1, Competitive Balance, and Round 2.
    Should mean an influx of talent.

    Fwiw, fangraphs has Zack Thompson as #35 on their draft board.

  7. #34
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Reds pick 7th next year

    Anybody catch this from Paul Daugherty from the Cin Enquirer? He certainly makes a case that first rd HS pitchers are to be avoided. What do you all think?

    After four to seven years, your fireballing No. 1 pick is almost as likely to be out of affiliated baseball as he is to be in your rotation. From 2011-14 major league teams took 47 high school pitchers in the first round of the draft. Here are the ugly numbers with how those picks have turned out:

    • 51% never reached the big leagues (24).

    • 40% had elbow or shoulder surgery (19).

    • 17% are pitching in the majors with their original team (8).

    • 13% are no longer pitching in affiliated baseball (6).

    From 2011–18, major league teams took 40 high school pitchers with one of the top 30 picks in the draft. Those 40 pitchers averaged 95.1 mph—38 of the 40 threw 93 and above.

    Within the last decade, the effects of Generation Velocity are becoming evident: kids are throwing harder and breaking down more often, but teams keep drafting them early and handing them seven-figure bonuses.

    What pitchers are dominating this year? Take a look at the leading contenders for the Cy Young Award in each league, and whether they were signed out of high school or college:

    NL

    Jacob deGrom / College
    Max Scherzer / College
    Aaron Nola / College
    Kyle Freeland / College
    Patrick Corbin / College

    AL

    Blake Snell / High school
    Justin Verlander / College
    Corey Kluber / College
    Chris Sale / College
    Gerrit Cole / College

    Hunter Greene sprained the ulnar collateral ligament in his elbow last summer.

    I’ve always agreed with Verducci re drafting HS flamethrowers. They’re like salmon swimming upstream to spawn, like baby turtles making a successful waddle from nest to sea. So much can happen in the 4-5-6 years it takes them to get from Billings to (Pretty Good American) Ball Park.

    The best pitcher the Reds have drafted in forever was Mike Leake. He went to college.
    https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...mp/2065360002/

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    REDREAD (11-21-2018)

  9. #35
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Reds pick 7th next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Anybody catch this from Paul Daugherty from the Cin Enquirer? He certainly makes a case that first rd HS pitchers are to be avoided. What do you all think?



    https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...mp/2065360002/
    I think you follow the numbers. College pitchers with an exception if you have a generational type talent available (Greene) - then you almost have to take the risk on. Just be very judicious with that label....
    99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...

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    REDREAD (11-21-2018)

  11. #36
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Reds pick 7th next year

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    I think you follow the numbers. College pitchers with an exception if you have a generational type talent available (Greene) - then you almost have to take the risk on. Just be very judicious with that label....
    I disagree. I think expecting a 17 yr old to navigate through the "sharks" to an age where he can be your ace is not very realistic. In the early 90s the Hunter Greene was Todd Van Poppel. Van Poppel sent out signals that he'd be tough to sign so the Braves decided not to screw with him and ended up drafting a high school hitter instead. The A's drafted Van Poppel and to the surprise of many, signed him. To Van Poppel's credit he did make it to the big leagues. To say he was a mediocre pitcher would be overly kind IMO. He never amounted to much of anything. Meanwhile that HS hitter ended up in the Hall of Fame, Chipper Jones

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    REDREAD (11-21-2018)

  13. #37
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Reds pick 7th next year

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Anybody catch this from Paul Daugherty from the Cin Enquirer? He certainly makes a case that first rd HS pitchers are to be avoided. What do you all think?

    https://www.cincinnati.com/story/spo...mp/2065360002/
    I think it's silly to use the years that he did. Guys taken in HALF of those years just finished up being 23-year-olds. That's the age many college guys are making their MLB debuts.

    Pitchers, college or high school, are high risk. Guys get hurt when they throw a baseball for a living.

  14. #38
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    Re: Reds pick 7th next year

    If you are a small market team and you want improved return on your investment -- why would you draft a pitcher at all in the first round (vs an everyday player)? You should fill up those first couple of rounds with everyday players - the teams are better at projecting that talent, than they are at projecting pitchers. If i was building a team and it came down to Senzel or Hunter -i'd pick Senzel every time -- why would it make sense to draft and pay that kind of price (taking Hunter over Senzel) at that level of volatility? Maximize the positions that you can project (everyday players) and stay away from uncertainty until you have a better idea of what you are getting (cost certainty).

    Right now, aren't all WAR wins created equal? I've never understood a poor teams philosophy on drafting a pitcher with a high pick.

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    Sea Ray (11-21-2018)


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