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Thread: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

  1. #211
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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    Senzel and Greene should both be traded to upgrade the rotation. Hanging on to them will turn out to be foolish just like they hung on to Stephenson.
    This organization has no problem with offense and positional players so Senzel with his value should be traded. I would go after Pivette of the Phillies.
    The Reds have shown no ability to properly develop a pitcher like Greene so he should be traded too. Maybe Gray of the Rockies or Ray of the D-backs, One of the Mets guys, Urena

    Speaking of getting pitchers last year it was predicted that the Reds would sign Chacin (MLBTR) instead the Brewers did. How would he look in a Reds uniform 192 IP 3.50 ERA. he signed a 2 year contract 8M last year and 6M this year.
    there was also a bunch of people that wanted Mikolas 200IP of 2.83 ERA. If the Reds had gotten those two guys this team would be relevant.

    We are two starters from being competitive IMO
    I'm not 100% against trading Greene or Senzel but if we have to include those guys for Pivetta, Gray, or Urena we probably messed up.

    I think your latter point on Chacin and Mikolas shows the Reds can make quality upgrades to the rotation without breaking the monetary or prospect banks, but it will require some FO/Ownership competency.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 10-11-2018 at 11:00 AM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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  4. #212
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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    Senzel and Greene should both be traded to upgrade the rotation. Hanging on to them will turn out to be foolish just like they hung on to Stephenson.
    That is absolutely insane. No.
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  5. #213
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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Hear me out on this one..i know..not a good way to start a comment, lol.....but I dont think the pitching is as far off as everybody else does. I know, the analytics back it up, but like i said, hear me out. I see everybody saying they need 2 TOR arms in the rotation. I think its more like 1 TOR (not even saying Ace material...a solid #2 level pitcher), and a solid MOR guy (#3 or #4 that eats innings.....an arroyo comp for lack of better comparison). Even just the middle of road guy....if they increase to just .500 on the 20 games Bailey pitched, plus win a couple extra of the 30 starts I'm estimating out of said MOR, this team is at .500 for the season....just by replacing Bailey with an average guy. The TOR, plus replacing Billy, getting Senzel in the lineup, and a healthy Winker, I think would shoot this team right into contention...but even two MOR arms would get them close IMHO.

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    Senzel and Greene should both be traded to upgrade the rotation. Hanging on to them will turn out to be foolish just like they hung on to Stephenson.
    This organization has no problem with offense and positional players so Senzel with his value should be traded. I would go after Pivette of the Phillies.
    The Reds have shown no ability to properly develop a pitcher like Greene so he should be traded too. Maybe Gray of the Rockies or Ray of the D-backs, One of the Mets guys, Urena

    Speaking of getting pitchers last year it was predicted that the Reds would sign Chacin (MLBTR) instead the Brewers did. How would he look in a Reds uniform 192 IP 3.50 ERA. he signed a 2 year contract 8M last year and 6M this year.
    there was also a bunch of people that wanted Mikolas 200IP of 2.83 ERA. If the Reds had gotten those two guys this team would be relevant.

    We are two starters from being competitive IMO
    Greene is the highest rated pitcher drafted by the Reds since???????

    The Reds have been poor at drafting and developing pitchers through their entire history. I would argue that they did a good job with Cueto, Bailey, and Leake, all of whom came into the Reds organization either via draft or international signing. Cueto was a Cy Young caliber pitcher, Bailey was trending in the right direction, and Leake was a quality starting pitcher. Stephenson was headed in the right direction early into his career and had quite a bit of value prior to the past few seasons.

    The Reds are in a position where they can't afford to give up their prized prospects. The Reds have to roll the dice and hope that Senzel and Greene become the players they think they can. The first six years of their career are really the only years the Reds can afford.

    There were some pretty legendary debates around here about trading for the likes of Joe Blanton and Erik Bedard. In both the trades Votto and Cueto were being thrown out there as guys to trade. They Reds needed pitching and those guys were never going to amount to much because that is what happens to all the Reds prospects. The Reds did start to swing big deals when they had guys blocked, but also when it was the piece they needed to get them over the top. Grandal and Alonso were blocked, and the Reds were a pitcher away from being a WS contender. Same thing can be said about Didi, get the player when you need him. I have doubts that India will ever see the field as a Red, but that doesn't mean to go trade him right now.

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Grandal and Alonso were blocked, and the Reds were a pitcher away from being a WS contender. Same thing can be said about Didi, get the player when you need him. I have doubts that India will ever see the field as a Red, but that doesn't mean to go trade him right now.
    Good post, but I can't agree with the last part of it. If Jonathan India is untouchable, you're telling me Reds need to hold onto all their valuable prospects. That's code for a 2022-24 plan, which is unacceptable to me.

    If the Reds are going to improve in the near term, they need to trade from strength to bolster weak areas. The greatest strength they have now is their organizational talent. They will have to trade some valuable parts of that depth to improve in the near term.

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    If the Reds are going to improve in the near term, they need to trade from strength to bolster weak areas. The greatest strength they have now is their organizational talent. They will have to trade some valuable parts of that depth to improve in the near term.
    They could sign Gio Gonzalez and Lance Lynn this off-season and immediately improve. They don't have to improve through trading prospects, but if the right opportunity comes along to acquire a main piece of the puzzle, then yes go along and trade some better prospects like India.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  11. #217
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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    So the Reds need to sell the farm for guys that are locked in to long term, affordable contracts, but also ship out everyone on the current roster and start over.

    Isn't that perpetual rebuilding at its finest?

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    Something tasty that has 1-2 years left on their deal or in arbitration (like Cole last year, or Gausman at the deadline)...which is pointless to acquire since they will be gone before 2021, no?
    I don't like that the Reds are where they are. If you'll recall I was pretty adamant they were doing all the wrong things leading up to this. Now they're here, holding a terrible hand with no chance of winning. Time to fold.

    You're clearly not paying attention to what I've said (value moves are fine, but ultimately they need a bigger score). It's not that complicated. Step 1 is stop pretending this team is close.
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    Robert Stephenson should be cut. That's just unconscious knowledge.

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    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Good post, but I can't agree with the last part of it. If Jonathan India is untouchable, you're telling me Reds need to hold onto all their valuable prospects. That's code for a 2022-24 plan, which is unacceptable to me.

    If the Reds are going to improve in the near term, they need to trade from strength to bolster weak areas. The greatest strength they have now is their organizational talent. They will have to trade some valuable parts of that depth to improve in the near term.
    Not necessarily. The key really for any prospect is to understand where the peak value is. Some GM's were great and knowing and understanding which prospects were going to make it and which weren't. Knowing when someone was at peak value, and then to trade him, as opposed to keeping him as he began to show some cracks. For example, Bob Steve's value was pretty high a few years ago when hew as tearing apart AA ball. But when cracks began to show with his control issues he lost a ton of value. Had the Reds traded him three years ago, they would have gotten a lot more value than they would now.

    With India, I just think you don't really know what type of player he is. Maybe he is the next great player, maybe he is a career utility player. I think you hold onto him right now for this season because his value to the Reds his higher than what you would get in return. I don't think India becomes a Red because IMO he will be blocked by both Suarez and Senzel. That's ok, but trading him at the right time would bring a heck of a lot more value than trading him right now.

  14. #219
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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    but if the right opportunity comes along to acquire a main piece of the puzzle, then yes go along and trade some better prospects like India.
    You do realize you have spent pages arguing against me saying exactly that.
    Wanted: Big Red Mechanic

    Robert Stephenson should be cut. That's just unconscious knowledge.

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I don't like that the Reds are where they are. If you'll recall I was pretty adamant they were doing all the wrong things leading up to this. Now they're here, holding a terrible hand with no chance of winning. Time to fold.

    You're clearly not paying attention to what I've said (value moves are fine, but ultimately they need a bigger score). It's not that complicated. Step 1 is stop pretending this team is close.
    No, I am paying attention, it just seems like a plan to run in circles. If the Reds aren't currently close and you say they aren't, then they need to focus on a new cost-controlled core to build around. That core is going to almost certainly have to come from within (Senzel, Greene, Trammell, Peraza, etc). If it comes from the outside, they are going to have to trade those guys I just mentioned, and as a result, we haven't moved forward.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    You do realize you have spent pages arguing against me saying exactly that.
    Hmm...where?

    Perhaps it seems that way, but a #2-3 type starter with 2 years left before free agency would be a main piece of the puzzle for me. I'm not hung up on guys under control for 3+ years.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  17. #222
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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    Not necessarily. The key really for any prospect is to understand where the peak value is. Some GM's were great and knowing and understanding which prospects were going to make it and which weren't. Knowing when someone was at peak value, and then to trade him, as opposed to keeping him as he began to show some cracks. For example, Bob Steve's value was pretty high a few years ago when hew as tearing apart AA ball. But when cracks began to show with his control issues he lost a ton of value. Had the Reds traded him three years ago, they would have gotten a lot more value than they would now.

    With India, I just think you don't really know what type of player he is. Maybe he is the next great player, maybe he is a career utility player. I think you hold onto him right now for this season because his value to the Reds his higher than what you would get in return. I don't think India becomes a Red because IMO he will be blocked by both Suarez and Senzel. That's ok, but trading him at the right time would bring a heck of a lot more value than trading him right now.
    It's easy enough to eliminate every prospect of value:

    Senzel - too close, too good.
    Greene - injured, lowers value for now.
    Trammel - the answer for CF in the future.
    India - too soon.
    Santillan/Guttieriez - why trade pitching it's what you need?
    Tyler Stephenson - catchers' value won't emerge until later.

    And on and on and on.

    I'm all for maximizing value in trades. But you can get stuck in neutral too. It's time for the Reds to put the car in drive.

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  19. #223
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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Hmm...where?

    Perhaps it seems that way, but a #2-3 type starter with 2 years left before free agency would be a main piece of the puzzle for me. I'm not hung up on guys under control for 3+ years.
    It's a piece of a puzzle for how to win 75 games the next couple of years. Yet apparently you do recognize there's a bigger picture.
    Wanted: Big Red Mechanic

    Robert Stephenson should be cut. That's just unconscious knowledge.

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    It's easy enough to eliminate every prospect of value:

    Senzel - too close, too good.
    Greene - injured, lowers value for now.
    Trammel - the answer for CF in the future.
    India - too soon.
    Santillan/Guttieriez - why trade pitching it's what you need?
    Tyler Stephenson - catchers' value won't emerge until later.

    And on and on and on.

    I'm all for maximizing value in trades. But you can get stuck in neutral too. It's time for the Reds to put the car in drive.
    Same was said with Stephenson, Reed, Romano, etc.
    how did that work out?
    The television crews left and about 10 reporters remained in the room. That's when Price took his turn doing the talking.
    What followed was a five-minute, 34-second expletive-filled tirade. The final tally was 77 uses of the "F" word or a variant and 11 uses of a vulgar term for feces (two bovine, one equine).

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  22. #225
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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It's a piece of a puzzle for how to win 75 games the next couple of years. Yet apparently you do recognize there's a bigger picture.
    Then what exactly is the point of cashing in prospects now to get a guy with 3-4 years of control, if the Reds are so far away that they can't win in 2019-2020? You are paying for 2 meaningless years of production from that player.

    It doesn't make sense to trade for player X who predicts to post ERAs for 3.75/3.85/4.00/4.00 then hit FA if it doesn't make sense to trade for player Y who predicts to post ERAs of 3.75/3.85 then hit FA because your team will stink during those years. You might as well wait until the 2020-2021 off-season to make the splash and maximize the useful years you get out of the acquired player.

    That's kinda like saying "I think an investment will be bad in 2019 and 2020, but itll have a chance to be good in 2021, so I am going to go ahead and buy into it now." When you could instead hang onto your money, invest in other things that look to be good for 2019 and 2020, and then jump in come 2021.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 10-11-2018 at 12:25 PM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.


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