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Thread: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

  1. #286
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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    I think they are going to get AJ Pollack and salary dump Kemp. Just a feeling.
    Agree, at least on the Kemp part. Reds are overloaded at corner outfield; they have a $21 million player who might be better as a DH; he can still hit and has some trade value. Reds could save, say, $8-10 million if they trade him. That has to be part of the discussion. Inconceivable Reds aren't considering this possibility.

    If Reds - as the article says - Reds have another $17-22 million to spend, with a Kemp deal that amount could easily grow to $25-30 million (ballpark). That would give Reds lots of flexibility to add free agents.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-12-2019 at 04:05 PM.

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Kemp is better than What we have coming back. I think we hold onto Kemp. Puig starts in CF is my guess.


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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by alexad View Post
    Kemp is better than What we have coming back. I think we hold onto Kemp. Puig starts in CF is my guess.


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    Winker has a career .924 ops vs RHP. He'll be in the lineup over Kemp a majority of the time. I'll be very surprised if Puig starts a game in CF.

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    They’ll dump Kemp but it will only save $3-4MM. That still would leave around $20MM.

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    They’ll dump Kemp but it will only save $3-4MM. That still would leave around $20MM.
    Nobody knows how much Reds will save on that Kemp trade.

    If they take back weak prospects they’ll save more. If they insist on a meaningful prospect they’ll save less.

    Nobody ever thought Reds would get back any value for Bailey. Some of us urged creative thinking on that, many said forget it, sunk cost, eat it.

    Nobody knows.

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    Old school 1983 (01-12-2019)

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Nobody knows how much Reds will save on that Kemp trade.

    If they take back weak prospects they’ll save more. If they insist on a meaningful prospect they’ll save less.
    I don't think prospects have anything to do with it, unless the Reds are giving away a good prospect to get a team to take on Kemp's salary.

    I think Mitri's math mostly checks out. The most likely scenario is that they'd trade Kemp for someone else's sunk cost who has a salary a few million dollars lower than Kemp's 2019 salary.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by alexad View Post
    Kemp is better than What we have coming back. I think we hold onto Kemp. Puig starts in CF is my guess.


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    I’m speculating, but I don’t think the Reds ever intended Kemp to play for them.

    He’s the successor to the Bailey salary spot. His inclusion in the trade was necessary to give Dodgers the luxury tax relief they were seeking. He was the biggest salary LA sent away.

    But Reds didn’t acquire him to play a vacant position, they have plenty of corner outfielders.
    Thankfully he can still hit and has some trade value.

    Reds have an aggressive agenda this off-season, any dollars they can save off the current payroll helps them in the market. Kemp at $21 milliion is the logical candidate for those savings.

    Kemp has been a very good player, but it’s how I conceive this situation.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-12-2019 at 06:08 PM.

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    I don't think prospects have anything to do with it, unless the Reds are giving away a good prospect to get a team to take on Kemp's salary.

    I think Mitri's math mostly checks out. The most likely scenario is that they'd trade Kemp for someone else's sunk cost who has a salary a few million dollars lower than Kemp's 2019 salary.
    There are several ways the deal could be structured.

    1. Reds trade Kemp and cash to Team X for modest prospects. The cash off-sets some part of Kemp’s salary. The prospects are simply filler to provide consideration for the deal.

    2. Reds trade Kemp for Team X’s “bad” contract. Could include other players or prospects. Balance of salaries favor Reds.

    The problem with #2 is that the other team GAINS salary. Seems unlikely unless Reds add a sweetener such as a prospect.

    There’s no “math” it’s just a question of Kemp’s dollar value to the acquiring team.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-12-2019 at 06:29 PM.

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The problem with #2 is that the other team GAINS salary. If their goal is to dump salary not sure why they would do that.
    Part of it could be the Reds taking on a guy with a salary lower by several million than Kemp in 2019 but who is also under contract for a similar amount in 2020.

    As an example: The Mariners already have Edwin who they're trying to dump into the DH market (as well as another old friend Jay Bruce) but something like Kemp for Dee Gordon would make sense. Gordon's making $13.3 mill for the upcoming season and $13.8 for 2020. He'd be an expensive utility player for 2019 but it saves you about $10 million from dumping Kemp. Whether you keep Gordon around in 2020 or eat his last year or once again try and flip the contract is something you deal with in 2020, it's not really that important.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    Part of it could be the Reds taking on a guy with a salary lower by several million than Kemp in 2019 but who is also under contract for a similar amount in 2020.

    As an example: The Mariners already have Edwin who they're trying to dump into the DH market (as well as another old friend Jay Bruce) but something like Kemp for Dee Gordon would make sense. Gordon's making $13.3 mill for the upcoming season and $13.8 for 2020. He'd be an expensive utility player for 2019 but it saves you about $10 million from dumping Kemp. Whether you keep Gordon around in 2020 or eat his last year or once again try and flip the contract is something you deal with in 2020, it's not really that important.
    Yes, still another variation.

    Here’s another one. Reds trade Kemp and a prospect for Greinke and (meaningful) cash. Or, if not Greinke, substitute another high salaried pitcher on an LTC. Sending Kemp’s contract off-sets some of the inherited salary.

    In that scenario Reds actually take on substantial salary, probably for three years, but get an important player.

    It’s just a question of using Kemp’s contract, as best as possible, to gain something that fits the Reds. Whether it be salary relief, a player, or a combination of both.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-12-2019 at 06:49 PM.

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    People has some interesting ideas. The Reds payroll is 120M. Just because they are getting money towards that payroll does not affect what the payroll is. That money is revenue for the Reds because of this maybe why they say their payroll can be 130 million.

    So I see us only having 10 million to spend or increase payroll.

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    757690 (01-12-2019)

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    People has some interesting ideas. The Reds payroll is 120M. Just because they are getting money towards that payroll does not affect what the payroll is. That money is revenue for the Reds because of this maybe why they say their payroll can be 130 million.

    So I see us only having 10 million to spend or increase payroll.
    The Reds have been doing this forever. They even have been counting deferred money against the current year’s payroll. Both Jr, and BP were furious about that, because they deferred money so the Reds could afford a better team that season..
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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    People has some interesting ideas. The Reds payroll is 120M. Just because they are getting money towards that payroll does not affect what the payroll is. That money is revenue for the Reds because of this maybe why they say their payroll can be 130 million.

    So I see us only having 10 million to spend or increase payroll.
    We can only posit how to raise some money for payroll flexibility.

    We can’t predict how much of it will actually be spent on player talent.

    But the Reds are becoming utterly irrelevant. Not sure that’s good for the ownership. So there’s a chance they will spend more.
    Last edited by Kc61; 01-12-2019 at 10:12 PM.

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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    Highest payroll compared to the mean is all that matters.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  23. #300
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    Re: “We’ll have the highest payroll we’ve ever had (next year)”

    I believe Kemp's trade value is negligible unless the Reds pay most of his salary. At that point, why not keep him?

    Kemp went .273/ .320/ .508/ .828 vs. LH last season in nearly 200 ABs. For his career, he's a .314/ .373/ .538/ .911 lefty killer.

    Winker went .183/ .302/ .293/ .595 against southpaws in just under 100 ABs. And, while the split wasn't as egregious in the minors, he still has a pretty large one-- well over 100 OPS points between LH and RH over the past three years.

    Who could replace those ABs with similar production? Puig's going to be playing full time somewhere else. Schebler might (especially if you factor defense). So might Winker if he develops. Ervin doesn't seem to be the answer. Senzel may-- but if he's in the OF, it's probably in CF.

    If Williams can get a solid return on Kemp, fine. Great. However, I suspect Kemp's similarly viewed as most expensive, limited guys. Right now, teams tend to not value that production very much, especially when compared to the cost.

    BTW, there's very little wrong with a LF position that could possibly OPS 900+. Career numbers suggest that's possible.


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