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Thread: Analytics in Cincinnati

  1. #46
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    I'm pretty sure Doug would deem it an honor to be killed by Anna Kendrick.

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  4. #47
    Member tripleaaaron's Avatar
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    How many of the 11 are solely responsible for running the numbers on who’s Bobblehead will bring the best return? Seems likely at least half.

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  6. #48
    Sprinkles are for winners dougdirt's Avatar
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    Quote Originally Posted by BernieCarbo View Post
    Now you’re being silly. Dating and running a billion company are completely different. Bob is a successful businessman, and if people provide him with solid data, he could be drconvinced. I mean, I do this stuff for a living, and I’m a DBA. I’ve met with many people in management over the years and they are always open to new ideas. That’s what analyst do.

    Even with your dating scenario, if I was hellbent on dating a girl, and then I was provided data that she had killed her previous three husbands, I would change my mind.
    Disagree (except for maybe the part where you could talk yourself out of dating a 3-time murderer).

  7. #49
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Disagree (except for maybe the part where you could talk yourself out of dating a 3-time murderer).
    Well, if you’re in the business, you’d agree. Industry, of which MLB is one, relies on analytics all the time. That isn’t to say that every single data scientists is good- i’ve seen some bad ones that have made terrible assumptions and practically ruined a company once, and even then it was more of a emotional attachment to some data that they preferred instead of looking at the real world.

    And if Bob truly refuses to listen to anyone, they may as well save that money and spend it on cool gimmicks instead. Although, they offered tickets for three dollars last year they still couldn’t get people to go.

  8. #50
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    Two recent decisions made by Reds management the paying extra to hire a pitching coach and a hitting coach away from two successful teams. Were either of those decisions based on using what is being thrown around as valuable data to "catch-up?" Could it be statistically shown that either or both new coaches used the analysis provided by their teams data-analyses to improve the pitching or hitting of those they coached? Should not the answer be at least partially Yes, and partially, at least, that it was beneficial. Without application based on some already known outcomes. How many more games (statistical probability) should the Reds win next year based solely on having hired two coaches, who eat well, sleep well, have a quiet lifestyle and ...? The only measure of success is wins; thus contributing to wins by human-beings not on the roster can never be proven to equal one win on any statistical model.

  9. #51
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    I was thinking about how when I played college baseball (D III...no scholarships) the resting pitchers in the rotation had to chart pitches. One recorded the type of pitch and location, another did a spray chart, I'm not sure what the others were since I was a 2B. The point is, we had data on other less data friendly teams that they didn't have on themselves. We weren't sharing it, of course, and the only way we got it was through gathering it ourselves. We went back 4 years on in-conference seniors that we faced....how we pitched them and their batted ball tendencies. It helped...but it took time and effort. A team that starts a system like that won't see much benefit in year one, but the benefit increases yearly with the accumulation of helpful data that is well collected. The stats we collected are Kindergarten stuff compared to MLB these days, but the point is that good analytics in baseball aren't an end that is reached with one or eleven hires. Those hires can get you there, though...in time.

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  11. #52
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    They are 15 years behind with re to strategy used on the field and they don't have a clue about how to implement it. It's as if they are saying "once we really get our ducks in a row, watch out". They do it with every decision and every program. Truth is truth -why does one have to wait to implement it?

    You don't pick the year - you get better piece by piece as soon as you can. They'd rather wait till stars align and that makes me think there's an implementation problem.

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  13. #53
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    Couldn’t it be said that the Astros and Cubs were behind other teams on analytics until they put the right people together and — boom (well, a few years of development) — they were on top?

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  15. #54
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    Quote Originally Posted by BernieCarbo View Post
    Well, if you’re in the business, you’d agree. Industry, of which MLB is one, relies on analytics all the time. That isn’t to say that every single data scientists is good- i’ve seen some bad ones that have made terrible assumptions and practically ruined a company once, and even then it was more of a emotional attachment to some data that they preferred instead of looking at the real world.

    And if Bob truly refuses to listen to anyone, they may as well save that money and spend it on cool gimmicks instead. Although, they offered tickets for three dollars last year they still couldn’t get people to go.
    …..And if Bob's product ( let's say produce) is inferior, no amount of analytics is going to help sell it to the public.

  16. #55
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    Quote Originally Posted by Old NDN View Post
    …..And if Bob's product ( let's say produce) is inferior, no amount of analytics is going to help sell it to the public.
    But, if he takes the produce he has, and stores his bananas in the freezer and his fresh fish out in the sun, then he will fail. Analytics will tell the company how to get the most out of what they have. McDonald’s makes billions selling crappy food, and it’s because they analyzed the market and made smart decisions. They didn’t say, “We’ll, if we can’t use wagyu beef, then why bother?”

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  18. #56
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    Quote Originally Posted by dougdirt View Post
    Are you a robot free of emotion? Ever dated someone in your entire life? Because reality says that sometimes emotion overcomes "evidence" an awful lot.
    There was just a quote in another thread from the Athletic that said Castillini is willing to trade Billy.. So it was unclear whether Cast was just resisting trading him during the 2018 season or always has resisted it or his "I want Billy here forever" was just a throw away line that got blown out of proportion.

    In any event, Dick Williams has no excuse this offseason. Keeping Billy is somewhat defensible (he wouldn't likely bring back much, and the Reds need someone to play CF), but I don't want to hear that Dick was "not allowed" to trade him.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  19. #57
    I rig polls REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    Quote Originally Posted by Ben Zinger View Post
    I was thinking about how when I played college baseball (D III...no scholarships) the resting pitchers in the rotation had to chart pitches. One recorded the type of pitch and location, another did a spray chart, I'm not sure what the others were since I was a 2B. The point is, we had data on other less data friendly teams that they didn't have on themselves. We weren't sharing it, of course, and the only way we got it was through gathering it ourselves. We went back 4 years on in-conference seniors that we faced....how we pitched them and their batted ball tendencies. It helped...but it took time and effort. A team that starts a system like that won't see much benefit in year one, but the benefit increases yearly with the accumulation of helpful data that is well collected. The stats we collected are Kindergarten stuff compared to MLB these days, but the point is that good analytics in baseball aren't an end that is reached with one or eleven hires. Those hires can get you there, though...in time.
    I am pretty sure that most (if not all) at bats are recorded on tape now. Some pitchers and hitters watch them before a game.. In any event, those tapes are obtainable by the Reds if they don't have them already.. they could get a lot of the "real time" data by having people watch the tapes..

    Point is, it may not take years to catch up on some types of data.
    [Phil ] Castellini celebrated the team's farm system and noted the team had promising prospects who would one day be great Reds -- and then joke then they'd be ex-Reds, saying "of course we're going to lose them". #SellTheTeamBob

    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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  21. #58
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    Quote Originally Posted by tripleaaaron View Post
    How many of the 11 are solely responsible for running the numbers on who’s Bobblehead will bring the best return? Seems likely at least half.
    You say this like it's not worth knowing.

  22. #59
    Pitter Patter TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    Let's assume a few things.

    The Reds have a video archive of every AB of every player in the organization. The have access to video of every AB of every MLB player not in the organization. They probably can get video of most if not every minor league player as well.

    That's certainly not all the data, but that's a start. And that's a level playing field. None of us know exactly what the Reds are tracking, any more than we know what they are not. (St. Louis might know...).

    Teams have been collecting data for a century plus now. Let's not act like gathering data is some "new" thing. Branch Rickey revolutionized it. Since Bill James first Baseball Abstract, data miners have been looking for that secret formula to perfectly define or predict success. What is "new" or relatively new, is integrating that data in real time game situations. Hence the increased shifts.

    This is just one example. The data goes so far beyond that, but I'd posit that data from 2010 has little to know value now except in tracking trends. 2010 data tells us nothing about the minor league system.

    And it is not just the organizational data that matters. A data analytics team the size the Reds are putting together can track health trends. Like how pitchers from Region A seem to develop arm trouble early as opposed to Region R that has fewer instances.

    doug, you keep mentioning data, but in the micro. In the macro, a really good analyst can work wonders with the data they have access to and can suggest new avenues to track. The Reds with a competent staff can surpass any team in this area, and If the FO has hired coaches at the MLB and MiLB level that are in line with that, it's a recipe for success.

    I don't know that the Reds have done that. The signs point to them doing and understanding that more data properly analyzed and implemented in real time can help them. I'd say we'll see, but it's not always apparent. I do know that what Oakland did this year was remarkable. No elite hitters. No elite pitchers. None of their pitchers were real high K guys, the closest being Trevor Cahill. Only one SP exceeded 120 IP. And what did that get them? 97 wins in a division with the reigning WS Champion Astros that won 102 games this year and a pesky Mariners team that faded down the stretch and still won 89 games.

    The A's were innovative. In their approach, but more importantly their integration. The integration is the key. The Reds have done something with three hires I did not think was possible. They made the FO interesting.
    Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.

  23. #60
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    Re: Analytics in Cincinnati

    Fangraphs article with some interesting/telling nuggets regarding analytics in Cincy.

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-n...se-now-he-can/


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