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Thread: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

  1. #46
    Member RustyJ's Avatar
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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Consensus is his ceiling is MOR. How close he ever gets to it is a matter of conjecture. My take is the Reds need to trade some bodies to get some bodies and he's likely at his prospect apex (where we pretend his ceiling is an easy projection). My bet would be he's worth more as a chip than as a keeper.
    The problem people have I think is this assumption that he’s reached his apex seems rooted in a small batch of failures we’ve had recently in the upper minors. Not sure there’s a good reason that should influence our valuation of Santillan. I see a guy with a big arm making fast strides that could just as easily raise his stock and make us look like dummies for trading him.

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  3. #47
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Consensus is his ceiling is MOR. How close he ever gets to it is a matter of conjecture. My take is the Reds need to trade some bodies to get some bodies and he's likely at his prospect apex (where we pretend his ceiling is an easy projection). My bet would be he's worth more as a chip than as a keeper.
    Nah.

    Consensus is that he's a top 100-ish prospect and a MOR prospect.

    His fastball is a 70, as per fangraphs. So, too, is this comment:
    With some additional polish, he should have three average-or-better offerings.
    That profile has a higher ceiling than MOR guy.

    And, not to put too fine a point on it, but of course your opinion is that he's nothing special and needs to be dealt before he turns into a pumpkin. That's been your opinion since he was drafted. You hated that draft pick and have remained steadfast since, first claiming that his fastball would surely lose zip within five years, then, when that turned out to be bunk, that he'd never find the strike zone. After that, it was that he'd almost assuredly get injured. Now, you've changed to Nothing to see here. But Santillan keeps proving you wrong. He's progressed as a pitcher.

    Maybe he never pans out. Because he's a prospect, that's the safe bet. But at this point, you may want to reevaluate your opinion of the 21-year-old in AA.

  4. #48
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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by RustyJ View Post
    The problem people have I think is this assumption that he’s reached his apex seems rooted in a small batch of failures we’ve had recently in the upper minors. Not sure there’s a good reason that should influence our valuation of Santillan. I see a guy with a big arm making fast strides that could just as easily raise his stock and make us look like dummies for trading him.
    Mine is rooted in his pedestrian peripherals.
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  5. #49
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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Nah.

    Consensus is that he's a top 100-ish prospect and a MOR prospect.

    His fastball is a 70, as per fangraphs. So, too, is this comment:


    That profile has a higher ceiling than MOR guy.

    And, not to put too fine a point on it, but of course your opinion is that he's nothing special and needs to be dealt before he turns into a pumpkin. That's been your opinion since he was drafted. You hated that draft pick and have remained steadfast since, first claiming that his fastball would surely lose zip within five years, then, when that turned out to be bunk, that he'd never find the strike zone. After that, it was that he'd almost assuredly get injured. Now, you've changed to Nothing to see here. But Santillan keeps proving you wrong. He's progressed as a pitcher.

    Maybe he never pans out. Because he's a prospect, that's the safe bet. But at this point, you may want to reevaluate your opinion of the 21-year-old in AA.
    He's come much farther than I ever would have guessed. I'd still cash him in. Act like MOR is an easy leap all you want. It's not. "Maybe he never pans out" is exactly the position the Reds can't afford to take. They have burned through a pile of prospect value with their hold-em strategy. It has been a miserable failure to date. If they want to operate in the trade market, they don't have a lot of assets. Figure it out or don't. I'd like it if the Reds stopped pushing the "don't" button.
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    Mitri (11-28-2018)

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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Mine is rooted in his pedestrian peripherals.
    What is pedestrian about his peripherals? 8.8 K/9 and 2.31 BB/9 for a 21 year old in AA whose biggest weakness was his command, is better than pedestrian, IMO. It was actually pretty on par with top prospects like Mitch Keller and Triston McKenzie in AA this year at similar ages. The knock on Santillan compared to those guys was he was more hittable, but there could be numerous explanations for that, good or bad.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    What is pedestrian about his peripherals? 8.8 K/9 and 2.31 BB/9 for a 21 year old in AA whose biggest weakness was his command, is better than pedestrian, IMO. It was actually pretty on par with top prospects like Mitch Keller and Triston McKenzie in AA this year at similar ages. The knock on Santillan compared to those guys was he was more hittable, but there could be numerous explanations for that, good or bad.
    And combined with his 1.16 HR/9, that was good for a 3.94 FIP. He's yet to land a FIP on the underside of 3.50.
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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    And combined with his 1.16 HR/9, that was good for a 3.94 FIP. He's yet to land a FIP on the underside of 3.50.
    Not true. He posted a 3.48 xFIP in AA last year (as a 21-year-old). If you want to be pedantic, he posted a 3.51 FIP in A+ last year.

    What I like most about Santillan is that he's improved his xFIP at every stop of his minor league career. For a guy who was drafted as an unrefined big arm, I love that continued development.

    Mark me down as bullish on Santillan. Big arm, continues to learn how to pitch. Has earned it at every step and will likely be a 22-year-old in AAA next year.
    Last edited by BillDoran; 11-28-2018 at 11:04 PM.

  10. #53
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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    Not true. He posted a 3.48 xFIP in AA last year (as a 21-year-old). If you want to be pedantic, he posted a 3.51 FIP in A+ last year.
    I said FIP, not xFIP. Yet 3.48 in the FSL isn't terribly exciting.
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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    And combined with his 1.16 HR/9, that was good for a 3.94 FIP. He's yet to land a FIP on the underside of 3.50.
    Mitch Keller and Triston McKenzie failed to carry a 3.50 FIP in AA this year as well. I care very little about what a guy has done in prior seasons when the knock on him coming out of the draft was command and consistency issues and those issues, combined with performance are much improved.

    The 1.16 HR/9 sticks out sure, but the number itself doesn't necessarily imply reason for major concern. Is Pensacola a launching pad compared to other AA stadiums? Was he working on command/throwing more strikes and as a result left more mistakes over the plate that were hit hard? Was he working using certain less refined pitches more often to develop them? Are there organizational philosophies at work leading to more HRs? After all, Blue Wahoo pitchers gave up a ton of HRs.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/minorleade...ers=0&sort=6,d

    Aside from the HR's, his numbers weren't far off Kyle Wright either.
    Last edited by Griffey012; 11-29-2018 at 11:53 AM.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

  12. #55
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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    Mitch Keller and Triston McKenzie failed to carry a 3.50 FIP in AA this year as well. I care very little about what a guy has done in prior seasons when the knock on him coming out of the draft was command and consistency issues and those issues, combined with performance are much improved.

    The 1.16 HR/9 sticks out sure, but the number itself doesn't necessarily imply reason for major concern. Is Pensacola a launching pad compared to other AA stadiums? Was he working on command/throwing more strikes and as a result left more mistakes over the plate that were hit hard? Was he working using certain less refined pitches more often to develop them? Are there organizational philosophies at work leading to more HRs? After all, Blue Wahoo pitchers gave up a ton of HRs.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/minorleade...ers=0&sort=6,d

    Aside from the HR's, his numbers weren't far off Kyle Wright either.
    If you want to throw out everything before last season, you still end up with pedestrian peripherals last season. It is what it is. If he pitches in AA this season like he pitched in A+ last season, chances are the results would be somewhere around all right. I prefer pitching prospects who blow the doors off.
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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    If you want to throw out everything before last season, you still end up with pedestrian peripherals last season. It is what it is. If he pitches in AA this season like he pitched in A+ last season, chances are the results would be somewhere around all right. I prefer pitching prospects who blow the doors off.
    The only real pedestrian peripheral is HR/9. Unless your standard of non-pedestrian is 10 K/9, 1.5 BB/9. But there's gotta be more than just a binary pedestrian/stud scale.

    Everyone here would prefer pitching prospects who blow the doors off, but there are very few of those across baseball, and I don't think anyone is confusing Santillan with Forrest Whitley.
    "Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.

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    BillDoran (11-29-2018)

  15. #57
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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    I don't think anyone is confusing Santillan with Forrest Whitley.
    They do look awfully similar.

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  16. #58
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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by Griffey012 View Post
    The only real pedestrian peripheral is HR/9. Unless your standard of non-pedestrian is 10 K/9, 1.5 BB/9. But there's gotta be more than just a binary pedestrian/stud scale.

    Everyone here would prefer pitching prospects who blow the doors off, but there are very few of those across baseball, and I don't think anyone is confusing Santillan with Forrest Whitley.
    So let's not pretend he's Forrest Whitley and declare him untouchable.

    It wasn't just his HRs in A+ ball. And I'm not cherrypicking which ones I'm going to pay attention to and ignore in order to paint a sunnier picture. If you look at the sum total of his peripherals at any level, they fall into the okay category (at least over the last two seasons). To me he looks a bit Sal Romano-ish. So, if there was some MLB player I really wanted and Santillan could help get that player, I'd be willing to move him.
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  17. #59
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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    So let's not pretend he's Forrest Whitley and declare him untouchable.

    It wasn't just his HRs in A+ ball. And I'm not cherrypicking which ones I'm going to pay attention to and ignore in order to paint a sunnier picture. If you look at the sum total of his peripherals at any level, they fall into the okay category (at least over the last two seasons). To me he looks a bit Sal Romano-ish. So, if there was some MLB player I really wanted and Santillan could help get that player, I'd be willing to move him.
    I think you undersell Santillan's progress, upside, and production, but totally agree with your larger point.

    Remarkably few prospects should be untouchable.

  18. #60
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    Re: Sickels' 2019 top 20 is out

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    I think you undersell Santillan's progress, upside, and production, but totally agree with your larger point.

    Remarkably few prospects should be untouchable.
    And that last sentence is what I'm driving at. Santillan getting some prospect recognition increases his value.

    Mind you, any sense of "maybe Santillan"s the kid you deal" is based on the Reds coming out of their transactional turtle shell. That's far from a given.
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