Second baseman are available everywhere. If Gennett could bring back a real improvement, trade him and sign Brian Dozier or somebody. The problem is that anybody I'd want wouldn't be available for Scooter because so many guys are out there who teams could get to play 2B. AT this point, I'd rather have Scooter than any of The others plus whatever you could get for him. The return for Scooter will be some other team's Robert Stephenson. Do not want.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Big Klu (12-09-2018)
Keuchel signed and an OF acquired, along with engagement on Kikuchi.
Kikuchi, Keuchel, and a new starting CF would be perhaps the biggest Reds' off-season since... Griffey?
At least two prospective Red SP will be dealt.
Other team predictions:
I also think the Yankees will deal Gray during the meetings. Whether that's to the Reds or not, who knows.
The Astros will make a deal for Cleveland's Bauer.
DiPoto will make trades. Lots of them.
The Angels have been quiet. Signing Harper would be a huge deal and might make them the wildcard favorite. A deal matching Trout's exactly? Might not happen yet. Both Machado and Harper seem to be playing the long game, hoping one of the big pocket owners spends huge coin.
I like this thinking. I'd be content with two SPs - Keuchel and Kikuchi along with a new CF.Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee
I'd be thrilled, but I'll take a scrap heap defender in CF and use that money on a third starting pitcher. I'm not at all impressed with any of the Reds non-Castillo in house options. If they end up with more than one in the rotation, they'll still struggle to reach .500 IMO. One of Mahle or Reed with the other as depth and then guys like Sims, Romano and maybe Santillan late in the year or a Lorenzen hail Mary pass if it becomes necessary. Please no Bailey, no Disco, no Finnegan, no Stephenson making any starts for this team.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
If we got Kuechel and Kikuchi (which meant no trades) I'd be ecstatic. Even if Senzel can't make it as a CF, I'd be willing to go with Schebler and a cheap defensive whiz (even one named Hamilton) for a year while we see how the Trammells, Siri's and Friedls of the world do in 2019. Would leave our fram system intact.
The only trade that wouldn't bother me much is if we got something good for Gennett.
So a rotation of
Kuechel
Kikuchi
Castillo
Disco probably is best bet at #4 and audition for #5 but my 2 best names are Mahle and Reed.
Leaves Sims, Romano, and Santillan in AAA ready as needed.
Bud Selig: "I'm the worst commissioner ever"
Rob Manfred: "Hold my beer"
https://redsintelligence.com/smforum/index.php
Your assumption precludes absolutely no improvement by any of the young guys (including Mahle and Castillo) and continued health issues for DeSclafani.
Old school 1983 (12-09-2018)
Disco was supposedly healthy last year and gave up 2 HR per 9 innings. That doesn't play no matter what else he may have shown.
Improvement and development may happen (in fact, I'm counting on it out of Castillo) get some solid additions and leave one spot for the question marks to compete.
Last edited by mth123; 12-09-2018 at 11:47 AM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
M2 (12-09-2018)
HR are, IIRC, pretty much a luck stat, yes? Pitchers can't control their HR rate, right?
If Castillo improves and the Reds sign two good free agent pitchers, they're definitely a .500 team, even with DeSclafani and Mahle as BOR guys. Both struggling pitchers had xFIPs of far more successful SP. Mahle ranked between Luke Weaver and Gio Gonzalez, and DeSclafani tied Mike Clevinger just below Dallas Keuchel on the MLB list (min. 100 IP).
(BTW, we both know DeSclafani wasn't healthy to start the season. He only pitched in 21 games.)
Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 12-09-2018 at 12:12 PM.
The issue with Disco wasn't the games he missed. It was the games he pitched. His HR rate was scary stuff, and it stretched through the whole season.
Last edited by M2; 12-09-2018 at 12:19 PM.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
Why no Disco? The guy was a very solid starter before he got hurt. I have no issue with making him the 4th or 5th starter.
I don't buy into xFIP. Giving up HR is a true outcome and normalizing it doesn't make sense to me. If a guy just didn't give up HR, he'd be good. But he does give up HR. That isn't due to defense or the way the ball bounces, it's because he leaves too many fat ones over the plate. As far as Disco goes, I buy more into his FIP of 4.83 and while that would be OK as a fifth starter, I'd rather devote that 5th spot to a longer term guy with a similar profile (Mahle, Reed). Disco is only two years from FA and I'm not sure its really worth devoting time to him any more. I'm also still not sold on his elbow holding up.
If the Reds are going with a shorter term vet, I want him to be less a question mark. If they are going to devote a spot, or even two, to a question mark, I'd prefer a longer term pay-off than a guy who will be a FA after 2020.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
DeSclafani's FIP is nearly a carbon copy of Atlanta's Julio Teheran, their fourth starter this season.
Again, if he and Mahle are in the rotation as the BOR guys, the Reds should be pretty good.
See the post above for my reasoning on Disco. I'll just add that I think the big mistake made around here is assuming the guy we have now is the same guy we had before he was hurt. The pre-injury Disco doesn't exist any more. Neither does the pre-injury Finnegan or Bailey IMO. These guys are who they are now not who they were then. If we could go back in time to when guys were good, I'd bring Soto and Rijo back to solve the problems.
Last edited by mth123; 12-09-2018 at 12:29 PM.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
Except, Teheran has made over 30 starts for 6 years in a row. He's a bankable 4th starter and not the question mark Disco is. Still, given his short two years of control and bottom of the rotation profile, I wouldn't give up much for Teheran either.
All my posts are my opinion - just like yours are. If I forget to state it and you're too dense to see the obvious, look here!
They have to take the tram to Excalibur for $5 Blackjack. I don't think Mandalay Bay has any $5 tables.
Somehow, this is the perfect expectation for the winter meetings.
Hugs, smiling, and interactive Twitter accounts, don't mean winning baseball. Until this community understands that we are cursed to relive the madness.
Posting Permissions
|
Board Moderators may, at their discretion and judgment, delete and/or edit any messages that violate any of the following guidelines: 1. Explicit references to alleged illegal or unlawful acts. 2. Graphic sexual descriptions. 3. Racial or ethnic slurs. 4. Use of edgy language (including masked profanity). 5. Direct personal attacks, flames, fights, trolling, baiting, name-calling, general nuisance, excessive player criticism or anything along those lines. 6. Posting spam. 7. Each person may have only one user account. It is fine to be critical here - that's what this board is for. But let's not beat a subject or a player to death, please. |
Reply With Quote