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View Poll Results: Who is Reds #4 Prospect

Voters
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  • TJ Friedl

    1 1.47%
  • Josiah Gray

    2 2.94%
  • Shed Long

    0 0%
  • Jonathan India

    37 54.41%
  • Tony Santillan

    22 32.35%
  • Jose Siri

    2 2.94%
  • Tyler Stephenson

    4 5.88%
  • Other

    0 0%
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Thread: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

  1. #1
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    Hunter Greene ran away with #3 prospect with 89% of the vote

    Here are some candidates for #4

    T.J. Freidl (23) OF from Univ of Nevada - Signed as Undrafted Free Agent in 2016. Split 2018 between High and AA. AA was .276 .359 OBP, .719 OPS. 30 steal overall.
    Josiah Gray - (20) 2nd round pick in 2018 out of LeMoyne College. 2.58 ERA in 12 starts. Whip of .088 in Greeneville
    Shed Long (23) - 2b from Jacksonville (AL.) HS. Drafted 12th round of 2013 draft. .765 OPS in AA with 19 steals.
    Jonathan India - (21) 1st round pick (5th overall) in 2018 draft. .240 avg, .380 OBP, .814 OPS over 3 levels in 2018.
    Tony Santillan (21) - Drafted 2nd round of 2015 Draft. 3.08 ERA 134/38 K to walks in 2 levels ending in AA
    Jose Siri (23) - OF from Dominican Republic. Signed in 2012 as International Free Agent in 2012. Bonus Unknown to me. .743 OPS over 2 levels in 2018. 23 steals
    Tyler Stephenson (22) - C from Kennesaw Mountain, Kennesaw, GA. Drafted 1st round of 2015 Draft (#11 overall)

    Again, if I missed someone you like, vote for them and I'll add them.
    The lowest acceptable payroll amount for ownership to show they are not greedy pigs is 15 million more than they are currently paying. No matter what that currently is.

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  3. #2
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    I'm picking India, but Santillan made me pause.

    India's going to hit for power and looks like he'll work the pitcher. That in itself is valuable. His defense at 3B or 2B looks good. If he could move to SS and play there adequately, he'd bump into the next echelon of Reds' prospects and would be in the top 20 - 25 discussion in the game. (As, IMO, are Greene, Senzel, and Trammell.) As is, he's projected to be a solid first division starter somewhere on the infield. I worry about his hit tool, but can't put too much stock in ABs after the grind of a full SEC baseball schedule. We'll have a bit of a better idea of who he might be as he plays this season at Dayton and perhaps, in the second half, Daytona. (That's the advantage of signing college hitters, IMO.)

    Santillan's emerging elite(ish) control and prior stuff gives me hope he might well be able to put the two together and be something special. That he did it at so young an age in AA makes it even better. I suspect he'll be treated conservatively and kept in AA for half a season before moving onto AAA-- if he excels. A higher K rate in line with his minor league career (9.0) and the 2.3 BB rate he put up last season along with 8.5 H/9 or less would put him in conversation for a top 50 spot across the game. He can absolutely do that. At this point, without additional improvement, I think Santillan's a solid second division starter capable of eating innings at league average or slightly better rates. Think somewhere between Sonny Gray and Jon Gray.

  4. #3
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    Re: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    I think you could go any number of ways with the vote right now and not be wrong. I do think votes for India at this point have probably been influenced by Senzel's success. India hasn't shown much. Of course, he ripped the cover off the baseball during the college season, but he wasn't especially impressive as a pro. The Reds moved him through three levels last year, but he spent the most time in Dayton where he accrued 112 PA. Over those plate appearances, he posted a .229 average and struck out 25 percent of the time. This isn't necessarily damning, but it's not auspicious either. There's plenty of reason for optimism, but it's worth noting that the No. 5 pick flames out somewhat regularly. And just because he profiles similarly to our best prospect doesn't increase his chances of impacting the big league squad.
    Last edited by BillDoran; 12-09-2018 at 11:55 AM.

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  6. #4
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    There is a clear gap after the top 3 and it get's interesting from here. Santillan has the best combination of upside, success so far and proximity to the big leagues, so he get's my vote here.

    If India can have a good year, he'll shoot up the list, but so far he hasn't done anything but hit against guys he should dominate and struggle when moved up a bit in competition level (a level he should still dominate if he's as good as advertised). He's still in the top 6 or 7, but I want to see him have success against more appropriate competition before putting him ahead of guys who look like clear big leaguers. I'm also higher than most of the board on Friedl for reasons similar to Santillan, but he did experience quite a drop off in AA, so I need to see more before he makes the top 5. Tyler Stephenson would be my other candidate, but he seems like he's lacking all around at this point. Not really a strong bat (.730 OPS), strong glove or any high minors experience, but real potential to be above average all around. Again, I want to see it. He might be my number 5 at this point, but I'd prefer he step forward or somebody else clearly pass him. Siri has some big league ready tools but the bat is still a huge question, so he's lower for me. Shed Long is the guy I'm most skeptical on. I've only seen him a little, but what I saw made Scooter Gennett look like Roberto Alomar at 2B. If he's not at least an .800 OPS guy in the high minors, I have real doubts that he's a major leaguer. I think he needs a position switch.
    Last edited by mth123; 12-09-2018 at 12:06 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  7. #5
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    All right, here's my case for T.J. Friedl. Everyone left on the board has questionable ceilings and fuzzy chances of having any sort of MLB career ... except T.J. Friedl. His game looks like a solid bet to translate to the bigs, and I think his ceiling is a lot higher than he's being given credit for in the wider world.

    First off, I think his floor is left-handed Chris Denorfia, who had a 10-year career. He's got a professional approach at the plate, hits to all fields, plays quality defense and presents some danger on the base paths. He also was a tough out vs. LHPs last season. Details like that matter. Means he can hang against all comers.

    To date, Friedl has a .287/.374/.418 slash line. He ably handled the AA jump in the middle of last season, which is where a lot of guys get wrecked. His numbers are almost a carbon copy of Phil Bradley - .286/.369/.421. Bradley was a quality player through the 80s who averaged 28 D, 7 T and 12 HR per 162 games (25 SB too). Friedl's on track to get there. The combo of BA and OB translates all the way up the ladder.

    Also, check this out:

    Year - Level - wRC+

    2016 - R - 145
    2017 - A - 141
    2018 - A+ - 141

    We'll have to see how much of that shows up in the upper minors this season, but a wRC+ in the 140s is dynamite. Putting it up three seasons in a row ought to make us giddy. If Friedl can be a Phil Bradley bat with quality CF defense, that is one hell of a player. I'm talking 3+ WAR. You don't get a lot of players like that, but you love them like family when you do. All Friedl needs is a touch of power that usually comes with maturity to get there.

    Nothing against anyone else left on the board, but I don't see anyone who profiles as better than an everyday, top-og-the-lineup CF, and Friedl's closer to getting there than anyone else is to reaching their possible futures.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

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  9. #6
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    All right, here's my case for T.J. Friedl. Everyone left on the board has questionable ceilings and fuzzy chances of having any sort of MLB career ... except T.J. Friedl. His game looks like a solid bet to translate to the bigs, and I think his ceiling is a lot higher than he's being given credit for in the wider world.

    First off, I think his floor is left-handed Chris Denorfia, who had a 10-year career. He's got a professional approach at the plate, hits to all fields, plays quality defense and presents some danger on the base paths. He also was a tough out vs. LHPs last season. Details like that matter. Means he can hang against all comers.

    To date, Friedl has a .287/.374/.418 slash line. He ably handled the AA jump in the middle of last season, which is where a lot of guys get wrecked. His numbers are almost a carbon copy of Phil Bradley - .286/.369/.421. Bradley was a quality player through the 80s who averaged 28 D, 7 T and 12 HR per 162 games (25 SB too). Friedl's on track to get there. The combo of BA and OB translates all the way up the ladder.

    Also, check this out:

    Year - Level - wRC+

    2016 - R - 145
    2017 - A - 141
    2018 - A+ - 141

    We'll have to see how much of that shows up in the upper minors this season, but a wRC+ in the 140s is dynamite. Putting it up three seasons in a row ought to make us giddy. If Friedl can be a Phil Bradley bat with quality CF defense, that is one hell of a player. I'm talking 3+ WAR. You don't get a lot of players like that, but you love them like family when you do. All Friedl needs is a touch of power that usually comes with maturity to get there.

    Nothing against anyone else left on the board, but I don't see anyone who profiles as better than an everyday, top-og-the-lineup CF, and Friedl's closer to getting there than anyone else is to reaching their possible futures.
    I have similar thoughts on Friedl, but he did show a clear drop in AA. I've been fooled enough by guys who flame out in AA, so I want to see him have success there. Santillan is the only guy left on the board who has. Maybe Jimmy Herget, but he's clearly not ready for this territory.

    I currently have Friedl at number 8 on my list behind Santillan (4), Stephenson (5), India (6) and Downs (7). Mostly I'm considering what so many of the national guys are saying to keep him out of the top 5, but I'm tempted to put him 5th. Another 50 OPS points at AA last year and he'd be there.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  10. #7
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    Friedl had enough ABs in AA for it to count against him, as mth pointed out.

    That's the biggest jump on the minor league ladder. And Friedl hasn't yet mastered the level.

    If he can earn that 140 OPS+ in AA this season, he's a top five Red prospect for sure.

    Right now, though, he's among the scrum in the 7-15 range.

  11. #8
    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    I think Friedl is my next vote ahead of Santillan by a hair.
    99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...

  12. #9
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    I would argue a 108 wRC+ > 3.94 FIP.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

  13. #10
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    Re: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    Nevermind.

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    Re: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    I'm probably underrating India, but I was torn between Gray and Santillan. I've been brainwashed, apparently, and can't think about anything other than pitching. I'll be better soon.
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  16. #12
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    Re: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    Went with India here. Willing to give him a pass for a lost month in Dayton. I think he'll be a powerful infield bat, possibly for another franchise. Might take time to get his hit tool straightened out, but 3B with plus defense and his power potential are very useful. Defensive flexibility helps his case.

    I really like Friedl as well, will definitely be taking him within the next handful of picks. Friedl's placement on a few recent lists are what immediately stuck out to me - he's a no-brainer top-10 guy in this system.

    Might want to add Downs to the next group (and maybe Siani, Garcia and Gutierrez too).

  17. #13
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    Re: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mitri View Post
    Went with India here. Willing to give him a pass for a lost month in Dayton. I think he'll be a powerful infield bat, possibly for another franchise. Might take time to get his hit tool straightened out, but 3B with plus defense and his power potential are very useful. Defensive flexibility helps his case.

    I really like Friedl as well, will definitely be taking him within the next handful of picks. Friedl's placement on a few recent lists are what immediately stuck out to me - he's a no-brainer top-10 guy in this system.

    Might want to add Downs to the next group (and maybe Siani, Garcia and Gutierrez too).
    The funny thing about the month in Dayton people are freaking out about, other than it being an extremely small sample size and after bouncing around 4 different leagues (including NCAA regular season and postseason), it was really a lost 2 weeks, the other 2 weeks he hit very well.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

  18. #14
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by RedTeamGo! View Post
    The funny thing about the month in Dayton people are freaking out about, other than it being an extremely small sample size and after bouncing around 4 different leagues (including NCAA regular season and postseason), it was really a lost 2 weeks, the other 2 weeks he hit very well.
    Nobody is freaking out. I just don't think a guy is automatically a top 50 prospect until he actually does something. No matter what the reason, tired, too many leagues, voodoo or whatever, he isn't a generational talent or he wouldn't have lasted until the 5th spot in the draft and short of that, he isn't a top 50 prospect until he actually does something. Nobody is saying cut the guy. I just can't put a guy with no real track record ahead of guys who've had success at AA.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  20. #15
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    Re: Prospect Poll - Who is Reds #4 Prospect?

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Nobody is freaking out. I just don't think a guy is automatically a top 50 prospect until he actually does something. No matter what the reason, tired, too many leagues, voodoo or whatever, he isn't a generational talent or he wouldn't have lasted until the 5th spot in the draft and short of that, he isn't a top 50 prospect until he actually does something. Nobody is saying cut the guy. I just can't put a guy with no real track record ahead of guys who've had success at AA.
    Jonathan India aside, say whaaaaaaat?

    Mike Trout was drafted like 25th. Might be the best player in the history of baseball when it’s all said and done.
    What would you say.....ya do here?


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