Reds trade RHP Tanner Rainey, acquire RHP Tanner Roark

[mth123]

I don't know. That feels dangerously close to how they did things in the lost decade to me. Getting middling pitching that they hope works out and leaves them semi-competitive for most of the year. Hoping that a strong offense can carry most of the load.

The thing is I believe you either need to be truly going for it, or not. This dipping a toe into the water stuff is pointless to me. Either go get some actual good pitching or don't. But, don't try and be middling. I think it's the worst thing you can do.

What's funny is I think if they tried to do something like this in 2014 most here would have a different reaction. I think at that point most would've agreed that the middling approach doesn't work usually. I honestly think the last 4 years has made people so desperate for anything that middling actually sounds good.

These one year guys are not the way to build a rotation.

Roark was a good acquisition because he didn't cost anything and the Reds are desperate for somebody to provide some base of innings while they try to get some younger in house guys to establish themselves. These types of acquisitions are what the Reds should have been doing the last three seasons, but since they didn't, and they've kind of mishandled the young kids they were hoping to develop into the base of a rotation by now. The rotation that this team can compete with isn't going to develop in one off-season of acquisitions. These types aren't the guys you win with, but I just don't think you can develop the guys that you do win with until you have them. You don't win with Harang and Arroyo, but, IMO, you don't develop Cueto, Bailey and Leake, or put yourself in position to go after a Latos, without them.

I'm fine with the Reds churning a spot or two with proven, solid, inning eating one year guys, but some kids still need to step up and they still need to go after a longer term, higher end guy at some point. It's why I don't waste any more time with Bailey or Disco. They don't really fall into either category. They are no longer proven guys who can lay down an inning foundation and they aren't guys you can develop as your long term competitive window guys. Disco is down to two years of control. He's a major question mark going into that. I don't understand wasting time with him. If he continues to be a HR prone, injury prone arm, you've added nothing and made zero progress. If he does return to form and stays healthy, you've basically got a one year guy who isn't going to be in the core going forward with probably little trade value given his history and one year of control. I'd invest that spot in the rotation into a younger guy I think is most likely to become Cueto, Bailey or Leake. Hopefully Castillo is this team's Cueto. Maybe Mahle or Reed (or some other younger guy they acquire) can be Leake. I'm fine with Roark eating innings a la Arroyo and replacing him with another vet next year to do the same thing. That still leaves two spots open. I'm not comfortable putting two more kids in there for fear that we'd wind up with the same development curbing over-exposure that we've been watching the last couple of years. I'd acquire a middle of the rotation vet who they can keep for 3 or 4 years to be this team's Bailey (my current choice is Alex Cobb if he can be had for not a lot of prospect capital) and another vet similar to Roark who seems sturdy and capable of carrying an innings load above all. Hopefully the Reds can get the dump Bailey and take on Wood and Kemp thing done to fill that spot. Next year at this time, I'd try to replace Roark or Wood (or whoever they get as another inning eating vet) with a higher end, longer term guy (the Latos deal).

Immediately, I'd shop Disco to some team looking to play the lotto ticket game with him. Probably I'd look for a similar lotto ticket who is a capable defender in CF. Disco for Jake Cave might be a deal I'd propose. The Reds may need to add a middling prospect, but nothing too much. Maybe a younger version of Cave. Say Stuart Fairchild or Michael Beltre. Maybe less.

[Rijo's Ghost]

Be careful with Leake - he's signed thru 2020 around 18 million per.

The Cardinals are paying 9 million of the 36 he's owed.

[757690]

The Nationals signed Anibel Sanchez to a two year $19M deal to replace Roark. It seems they miscalculated the market. I think they would have been wiser to just keep Roark, as costs about the same per year, but for only one season, and I think he will be better than Sanchez,

It will be interesting to watch these two, to see if the Nationals made the right move.

[Kc61]

The Nationals signed Anibel Sanchez to a two year $19M deal to replace Roark. It seems they miscalculated the market. I think they would have been wiser to just keep Roark, as costs about the same per year, but for only one season, and I think he will be better than Sanchez,

It will be interesting to watch these two, to see if the Nationals made the right move.

Oh, I think the Nats understood the market. Fully. They made the choice they wanted. They had lots of choices.

[757690]

Oh, I think the Nats understood the market.

Well, if they did, then the Reds did not. If they Nats understood the market, then it was better for the Reds to sign Sanchez, then to trade for Roark.

[Kc61]

Well, if they did, then the Reds did not. If they Nats understood the market, then it was better for the Reds to sign Sanchez, then to trade for Roark.

Not necessarily.

Reds may have different budgetary considerations for a No. 4 starter.

Maybe Sanchez made the choice, not the Reds.

Lot of possible factors.

But Nats had Roark and didn’t have to trade him. They chose their path with eyes open.

[membengal]

He’s been REALLY sharp and impressive the entire spring, and was absolutely dealing tonight against the Dodgers. 8 Ks in five innings, one hit, no runs , no walks.

I’ve happened to see him three times this spring and his stuff is better than I had recalled from his Nats days. I admit to not seeing a ton of him and I would guess on a staff with strasburg and scherzer that stuff by other pitchers paled by comparison. But from what I’ve seen this spring his command has been really good and he absolutely has an idea of how he wants to attack batters. He sorta reminds me in command and approach on the mound to the good years from Harang.

[JFLegal]

opening day starter? sure feels that way to me.

[RustyJ]

I can't tell if he actually looks great, or I just haven't seen an actual pitcher in four years. Thumbs up either way.

[scotly50]

I still believe the Reds made a bad desicion in trading for Roark. The better play was to sign Sanchez for a year rather than giving up Rainey for a year of Roark.

[GaiusBallstar]

He’s been REALLY sharp and impressive the entire spring, and was absolutely dealing tonight against the Dodgers. 8 Ks in five innings, one hit, no runs , no walks.

I’ve happened to see him three times this spring and his stuff is better than I had recalled from his Nats days. I admit to not seeing a ton of him and I would guess on a staff with strasburg and scherzer that stuff by other pitchers paled by comparison. But from what I’ve seen this spring his command has been really good and he absolutely has an idea of how he wants to attack batters. He sorta reminds me in command and approach on the mound to the good years from Harang.

That sinking slider? he threw inside to strike out the lefty Verdugo was very prime Harangesque, saw that pitch a lot from Harang to strike out lefties.

I too like what I see. Hopefully Roark has a big year like he did a couple times before, and the Reds can have some success and also get a comp pick out of him.

[GaiusBallstar]

I still believe the Reds made a bad desicion in trading for Roark. The better play was to sign Sanchez for a year rather than giving up Rainey for a year of Roark.

Sanchez got two years of Roark's salary this year. Why would he sign with the Reds for one at that price? Especially considering he would have to pitch in the Reds' ballpark on a contract year.

Assuming he would take a one year deal for extra coin, are you going to overpay him by 3 or 4 million just to keep a dime a dozen throws hard but has no control relief prospect? I sure wouldn't. The best way to get value from such dime a dozen prospects might be to trade them to teams that overvalue them. I'm glad the Reds did, even if Rainey beats the odds and figures it out.

[JaxRed]

I still believe the Reds made a bad decision in trading for Roark. The better play was to sign Sanchez for a year rather than giving up Rainey for a year of Roark.

While we're comparing spring numbers.... Rainey's ERA this spring is 17.18

[JFLegal]

I still believe the Reds made a bad desicion in trading for Roark. The better play was to sign Sanchez for a year rather than giving up Rainey for a year of Roark.

can't tell if this is sarcasm.

[CaiGuy]

I think we have a pretty good idea of what Roark is at this point...he's been nothing if not consistent over the last few years. He's probably good for ~180 innings of league average pitching if healthy.

That definitely has its value, but I wouldn't get really excited for more based on a handful of spring innings.