Homer Bailey, no one said goodbye

[SteelSD]

You want me to search for your opinions from over 10 years ago. You clearly think too highly of yourself. I didnt argue he was perfect. I clearly said he was rushed. He was very flawed at 21. Big deal. Maybe you should look up his stats because he did not have one good year and then regress. He pitched well in his age 26 and 27 seasons. Fell back a bit the next season before being shut down with what later turned out to he a torn UCL. Yeah he sucked after that and the other surgeries but that happens. You seem to have a clear bias against him regardless of who you blamed in one of your prior long winded posts. If he had stayed healthy and continued to pitch exactly as he did in his last 2 healthy full seasons he would have been worth the money. The reds gambled and lost. Thank the baseball gods for that. Either way I'm good with this conversation. Its pointless and hes gone so time to move on.

Now see, that's "salty" and overgrown with "feelings". Bailey only put up significant Innings and pitched well in 2013. The guy put up a 4.00+ FIP in the 340 Innings before that over two seasons (4.06 FIP, 3.97 FIP). That's bordering on "decent", but not "well". As I stated earlier, Homer had a one-year performance spike in 2013, threw up a 3.93 FIP in 2014. Then poof...he was gone. Whatever improvement you think would have surely happened had Bailey not been injured really doesn't matter because it didn't actually happen and, frankly, wasn't likely to.

And yes, you'd have done well to research my previous positions on Bailey before you went into reactionary attack mode.

[kaldaniels]

I’m curious how Bailey’s 100+ innings of 6 ERA ball last year only resulted in a -0.2 fWAR.

Now a vast majority will say “because fWAR sucks.”...ok, but I’m wondering about the nuts and bolts of it. Bailey was basically replacement level last year. What would it take to be say a -1 or -2 WAR guy?

And he was 0.7 WAR in 90 innings of 6 ERA ball in 2017!

[ochoa30]

Now see, that's "salty" and overgrown with "feelings". Bailey only put up significant Innings and pitched well in 2013. The guy put up a 4.00+ FIP in the 340 Innings before that over two seasons (4.06 FIP, 3.97 FIP). That's bordering on "decent", but not "well". As I stated earlier, Homer had a one-year performance spike in 2013, threw up a 3.93 FIP in 2014. Then poof...he was gone. Whatever improvement you think would have surely happened had Bailey not been injured really doesn't matter because it didn't actually happen and, frankly, wasn't likely to.

And yes, you'd have done well to research my previous positions on Bailey before you went into reactionary attack mode.

You clearly started with the attacks first but whatever. Have fun being the Homer Bailey expert. It obviously means a great deal to you for whatever reason. All I said was the guy put up a few good seasons and then got hurt but somehow that offended you and was "100% incorrect". I'm sorry you lost your 100 million dollars. Also funny that a dude entering his prime cant possibly improve but that's not bias at all. Posters like you are why I rarely enter these meaningless discussions. Nice friendly discussion. Have yourself a happy holiday.

[SteelSD]

I’m curious how Bailey’s 100+ innings of 6 ERA ball last year only resulted in a -0.2 fWAR.

Now a vast majority will say “because fWAR sucks.”...ok, but I’m wondering about the nuts and bolts of it. Bailey was basically replacement level last year. What would it take to be say a -1 or -2 WAR guy?

And he was 0.7 WAR in 90 innings of 6 ERA ball in 2017!

It's FIP that factors into fWAR for pitchers. Mike Pelfrey (120 IP, 6.35 FIP, -1.1 fWAR), Derek Holland (135 IP, 6.45 FIP, -1.0 fWAR) and Chris Tillman (93 IP, 6.93 FIP, -1.0 fWAR) circa 2017 are probably pretty close to what you're looking for. Bailey was terrible last year, but his 5.55 FIP was likely at least a run (or more) lower than what he'd have needed over 200 Innings to reach a -2.0 fWAR level.

[kaldaniels]

It's FIP that factors into fWAR for pitchers. Mike Pelfrey (120 IP, 6.35 FIP, -1.1 fWAR), Derek Holland (135 IP, 6.45 FIP, -1.0 fWAR) and Chris Tillman (93 IP, 6.93 FIP, -1.0 fWAR) circa 2017 are probably pretty close to what you're looking for. Bailey was terrible last year, but his 5.55 FIP was likely at least a run (or more) lower than what he'd have needed over 200 Innings to reach a -2.0 fWAR level.

I guess I’m just just stunned that when all is said and done, Homer’s ~200 IP over the past 2 years have actually been 0.5 wins over replacement.

[SteelSD]

I guess I’m just just stunned that when all is said and done, Homer’s ~200 IP over the past 2 years have actually been 0.5 wins over replacement.

Yeah, that far below replacement requires a special kind of suck.

[SteelSD]

You clearly started with the attacks first but whatever. Have fun being the Homer Bailey expert. It obviously means a great deal to you for whatever reason. All I said was the guy put up a few good seasons and then got hurt but somehow that offended you and was "100% incorrect". I'm sorry you lost your 100 million dollars. Also funny that a dude entering his prime cant possibly improve but that's not bias at all. Posters like you are why I rarely enter these meaningless discussions. Nice friendly discussion. Have yourself a happy holiday.

If telling people that they're wrong is an "attack", then that's something I definitely 100% promise to not work on.

Anything else you have to say, take it the PM route.

[757690]

I guess I’m just just stunned that when all is said and done, Homer’s ~200 IP over the past 2 years have actually been 0.5 wins over replacement.

This is my very uneducated guess at it.

FIP, the basis for fWAR, doesn’t include hits. Homer gave up lots of hits these past two seasons, and that was the cause of his high ERA more than his HR or BB’s. So his FIP was significantly lower than his ERA, which meant a better fWAR than his performance suggested.

Usually, if a pitcher is doing that, it’s because he was unlucky, and over time, he would give up less hits. His BABIP would normalize. But that’s if the pitcher is actually good. When you get to be as bad as Homer, those hits will likely keep on coming, and his BABIP will not normalize. I think anyone who saw him pitch these last two seasons will agree with that.

And we’ve never really seen a pitcher, as bad as Homer has been, get as many starts over two seasons,as he has. At least not in recent memory. So this theory, that if you get to a certain level of bad, your BABIP will also be high, had yet to be tested.

[Sea Ray]

The hill that Doug died on re: Homer Bailey was the mound where he planted the projected ace-level starting pitcher flag when Bailey was a teenager. Ever since, we've heard about how Bailey should be better than he actually was, was somehow better than he actually was, and should be remembered as better than he actually was. Stories about how he will be/is/was really worth what he actually wouldn't be/isn't/hasn't been worth. Whatever justification to narrow the gap between what Doug thought he would be and what Bailey unfortunately turned into.

Homer Bailey was never "innings eater"; posting over 180 IP only twice (2012, 2013). He was never actually the best starting pitcher on his own team and possibly the second best only once- during his best season (2013).

Bailey's entire legacy is built off his draft position, having one more no-hitter than Mike Warren, and getting a contract that didn't match his actual performance. Without that, he's a bit more than a Jack Armstrong-level afterthought, I guess. But if we're going to throw Bailey in the Reds' HOF, then we best start sculpting the bust for Mat Latos and any other pitcher who pops up and has a couple of decent seasons. I understand that we're starved for starting pitching and give medals for the attribute of "home grown prospect". We're Reds fans, after all. But Bailey establishes a really low bar.

So, Homer, darn you for getting people's hopes up. And thank you for the two no-hitters. And bless you for putting up a couple 200-Inning seasons. And it wasn't your fault that someone would pay you more than you were worth. Yes, yes. All of that.

But in the end, the only enshrinement Home Bailey deserves is in the Hall of Cautionary Tales. In fact, he could probably rate a large monument in the central room; to be viewed and studied evermore by those who so dramatically overrate teenage talent that they spend years defending them after it's obvious that they're done. No eternal flame at Bailey's statue though. It's not just that fire burned out around 2014. It was just really never much more than a spark to begin with.

I was totally against the signing when it happened and I still am. It just wasn't a risk the Reds could afford, being a small market team. You make good points about Homer's career but I will add that he was a wonderful 1st rd pick by Reds standards. At the time he was drafted, it's an easy call to say that he was the best 1st rd starting pitcher the Reds had drafted since Don Gullett. Granted this might say more about our Reds drafting history than performance but we sure don't want to give the impression that he was in any way a disappointment. He was one of our better 1st rd picks.

[M2]

I’m curious how Bailey’s 100+ innings of 6 ERA ball last year only resulted in a -0.2 fWAR.

Now a vast majority will say “because fWAR sucks.”...ok, but I’m wondering about the nuts and bolts of it. Bailey was basically replacement level last year. What would it take to be say a -1 or -2 WAR guy?

And he was 0.7 WAR in 90 innings of 6 ERA ball in 2017!

The answer in this case really is that fWAR sucks. It uses FIP, which is fine for making projections (in combination with other stats), but an incomplete representation of what actually happened when you were out on the field. It completely misses that Homer's easy to hit because he can't repeat his pitches. That fuels his ERA, which fWAR ignores, which is why there's the discrepancy between that and his -1.5 bWAR. My codicil to "never use fWAR" is especially never use it for pitchers.

[Sea Ray]

I’m curious how Bailey’s 100+ innings of 6 ERA ball last year only resulted in a -0.2 fWAR.

Now a vast majority will say “because fWAR sucks.”...ok, but I’m wondering about the nuts and bolts of it. Bailey was basically replacement level last year. What would it take to be say a -1 or -2 WAR guy?

And he was 0.7 WAR in 90 innings of 6 ERA ball in 2017!

This gets into the whole WAR debate. In looking at the macro, Homer started 20 games last yr and the team only won one of them. How many should a replacement player have won? Seems to me at least 6. That's a .300 winning percentage. Homer's WAR should have been no better than -5.0.

[dfs]

At the time he was drafted, it's an easy call to say that he was the best 1st rd starting pitcher the Reds had drafted since Don Gullett. Granted this might say more about our Reds drafting history than performance but we sure don't want to give the impression that he was in any way a disappointment. He was one of our better 1st rd picks.

I was going to claim Tomko, but he's a second rounder.

[SteelSD]

I was totally against the signing when it happened and I still am. It just wasn't a risk the Reds could afford, being a small market team. You make good points about Homer's career but I will add that he was a wonderful 1st rd pick by Reds standards. At the time he was drafted, it's an easy call to say that he was the best 1st rd starting pitcher the Reds had drafted since Don Gullett. Granted this might say more about our Reds drafting history than performance but we sure don't want to give the impression that he was in any way a disappointment. He was one of our better 1st rd picks.

Yeah, that says way more about the Reds' abysmal record drafting arms than it does about Homer Bailey. Here's something I wrote in 2005 regarding Bailey.

I can empathize with folks who, because the Reds have pretty much nothing resembling an "Ace", feel the need to overrate success while ignoring failure. The Reds pitching situation stinks. It's human nature to desperately want a guy like Bailey to be better than he has been because of it.

I feel no differently 13 years later. Compared only to a bar set at "abject failure", Bailey was really good. But that's sort of a funhouse mirror frame job, isn't it? To me, he's going to go down in Reds history as a neat oddity due to the two no-no's and someone who, over a very short stint, performed a bit better than I hoped he would. But that's not Hall of anything material. To others who were counting on him to be the next big thing, he's a big disappointment.

[cumberlandreds]

Bailey's two no hitters and his playoff start were easily his highlights. His career was very inconsistent at best. Injuries certainly derailed any chance of him making a lasting ans long impact. But he always seemed like someone who just didn't enjoy playing. He always had that frown of discontent on his face. Even after one of no hitters he seemed joyless. I think he played just because he thought he had to and of course for the money. Of which he should be swimming in green forever. He just wasn't a very likeable person and that's a shame. Also he should not be in the Reds HOF. Just not consistent enough for me even with the two no hitters.

[TRF]

Arroyo is way more famous. Maybe two no-nos will do the trick, but it's a flimsy rationale for a guy whose Reds career stacks up with Brett Tomko.

At some point the numbers have to matter a little, right?

Tomko quit on the Reds. Bailey wanted to start when his body said no.