Reds acquire Sonny Gray from Yankees

[Kc61]

Or....he could say, if I have another bad year I could find myself signing a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. He could do a 3 year, 30 million deal, at which time he'd still be 32 and ready for another good deal.

It could go either way.

Professional athletes who have tasted success are not that negative. Presumably he has confidence in himself, he’s only 29, and expects to bounce back.

$8-10 million is not a contract that would entice a good SP free agent, and I’m sure Gray thinks of himself that way.

I expect he’ll want a minimum of $12-13 million in AAV to forego free agency. Maybe they bridge the gap with incentives or some other sweetener. Maybe a buy-out option.

[RiverRat13]

This number is determined by guessing what the player would get if he were an unrestricted free agent right now.

Jonathan Singleton got a 5 year $10M contract, when he wasn’t even a free agent, but just a prospect. I think if a 50 FV prospect was on the open market, $28M sounds about right for what he’d get offered.

There are 131 prospects with a 50 FV or better. You really think 131 prospects would be offered $28 million or more if they were on the free market?

[757690]

There are 131 prospects with a 50 FV or better. You really think 131 prospects would be offered $28 million or more if they were on the free market?

RMR brought up this point, and it’s a valid one. He projected that if all of them were free agents, they would each be signed for around $11M. But that is not how Fangraphs figures it. You can take it up with them

[757690]

I’m not a smart man but I don’t believe Shed Long would get 28 million guaranteed as a free agent right now.

Maybe not, but Fangraphs considers his too, set to hav PED an overall fair value of 50, which translates to a likely average MLB starter. I think if a team had a chance to lock up a player who was still in AA, who they project to be an average MLB starter, they would offer him around $28ma for his first six years before free agency.

Now, maybe you don’t think Long is a 50 FV prospect, and that’s fair. But a Fangraphs thinks he is, and their math tells them that a 50 FV prospect would get around $28M if he were a free agent.

[Tom Servo]

$8-10 million is not a contract that would entice a good SP free agent, and I’m sure Gray thinks of himself that way.

I expect he’ll want a minimum of $12-13 million in AAV to forego free agency. Maybe they bridge the gap with incentives or some other sweetener. Maybe a buy-out option.

I'd be fine with those numbers too. Incentives could definitely play a part.

[kpresidente]

I’m not a smart man but I don’t believe Shed Long would get 28 million guaranteed as a free agent right now.

Well we gave Iglesias $27M when he was a 23 yo prospect, although he was probably a little better than Long. I don’t remember what people put his FV at at the time.

Edit: Looks like FG had Iglesias as a 55 FV.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/evaluati...ncinnati-reds/

[Assembly Hall]

Just get it done.

[kaldaniels]

Let’s chop around 15% from that 28 million that redsminorleagues.com cited and use 24 million that FG actually cites.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-updat...ect-valuation/

I will object to Long being the 71st or so rated prospect so yeah, it makes sense that my objection is with FG here.

That said, they value 50 guys outside the top 100 at 9-17 million. That sounds about right.

[Assembly Hall]

Why do I feel like I am in a classroom right now and everybody is speaking Latin?

[OhioRiverBarge]

You know something else that might incentivize him is the guarantee he’s playing his walk year at GABP. If he knows he’s going to the reds and if he’s as wary of the park as pitchers are said to be, he might be less willing to gamble on getting a better contract in ‘20.

[Big Klu]

Why do I feel like I am in a classroom right now and everybody is speaking Latin?

Gallia est omnis divisa in partes tres.

[OhioRiverBarge]

Gallia est omnis divisa in partes tres.

Come on fellas; we don’t want any trouble here—not in any language.

[kpresidente]

The numbers being reported on the potential extension ($8-$10 million annual) seem very reasonable, I’d like to see it get done.

All the sudden, Tom Servo likes seeing a guy get underpaid. I agree, though, $8-10M sounds very reasonable.

[M2]

Professional athletes who have tasted success are not that negative. Presumably he has confidence in himself, he’s only 29, and expects to bounce back.

$8-10 million is not a contract that would entice a good SP free agent, and I’m sure Gray thinks of himself that way.

I expect he’ll want a minimum of $12-13 million in AAV to forego free agency. Maybe they bridge the gap with incentives or some other sweetener. Maybe a buy-out option.

I was thinking along similar lines. This essentially is Gray's big free agent negotiation.

[Assembly Hall]

Gallia est omnis divisa in partes tres.

Julius Caesar, is that you?