Success rate of NFL internal hires

[kaldaniels]

Sea Ray....

You said 18 of the last 20, and the last 10 hires from within have been failures (or something to that extent).

Where did you get those numbers and are you counting interim coaches?

[kaldaniels]

Sea Ray...

You said 18 of the last 20, and the last 10 hires from within have been failures (or something to that extent).

Where did you get those numbers and are you counting interim coaches?

Ok I was wondering where this post in the Browns thread went...

Here’s the deal. It seems some posts by others were deleted as things went the personal route? And this got moved.

Anyway Sea Ray used the fact that Kitchens was an in-house hire as a reason to “poo-poo” the hire. That’s fine. But he then said the last 10 in-house hires were failures and 18 of the last 20 in-house guys were failures. As a decent follower of the NFL I know guys aren’t typically hired in-house so I wondered about the list. (This doesn’t prove or disprove anything but Jason Garrett is the only other “in house” guy right now.)

I respectfully ask that this be further explained...maybe it already was but got deleted. Can anyone help me out here? Specifically Sea Ray, I’m curious about how you came to those numbers and if it counts interim coaches.

[GAC]

Ok I was wondering where this post in the Browns thread went...

Here’s the deal. It seems some posts by others were deleted as things went the personal route? And this got moved.

Anyway Sea Ray used the fact that Kitchens was an in-house hire as a reason to “poo-poo” the hire. That’s fine. But he then said the last 10 in-house hires were failures and 18 of the last 20 in-house guys were failures. As a decent follower of the NFL I know guys aren’t typically hired in-house so I wondered about the list. (This doesn’t prove or disprove anything but Jason Garrett is the only other “in house” guy right now.)

I respectfully ask that this be further explained...maybe it already was but got deleted. Can anyone help me out here? Specifically Sea Ray, I’m curious about how you came to those numbers and if it counts interim coaches.

I was wondering the same thing when the statement was made. There was no further explanation, nor "evidence" shown to back it up. Not saying it isn't true - because I have no idea (LOL) - just that the position wasn't further supported when questioned.

I would think hiring in-house would have more positives then negatives (but I could be wrong there too). The person was brought up in, mentored, and familiar with your system, knows the players, knows how it works, and how is to be implemented. I would think that would provide for a smoother transition. If you got a good thing going, and the GM feels that in-house candidate is qualified, will continue to carry out that scheme with little ripples, then why not hire them? Have we not seen situations where a highly successful head coach retires or gets promoted, and they hand the reins to one of the in-house coaches (coordinators) who was part of that success and possibly being groomed to step in.

I also could understand how hiring in-house could also be seen as laziness on an owner's part too.

I saw this interesting article on the Do's and Don'ts of hiring a head coach .....

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap300...ach-in-the-nfl

No mention either way when it comes to hiring in-house. The fact that some teams have been bad at it, or maybe not had much luck, doesn't, IMO, mean it's a general rule to be followed.

[JaxRed]

Ok I was wondering where this post in the Browns thread went...

Here’s the deal. It seems some posts by others were deleted as things went the personal route? And this got moved.

Anyway Sea Ray used the fact that Kitchens was an in-house hire as a reason to “poo-poo” the hire. That’s fine. But he then said the last 10 in-house hires were failures and 18 of the last 20 in-house guys were failures. As a decent follower of the NFL I know guys aren’t typically hired in-house so I wondered about the list. (This doesn’t prove or disprove anything but Jason Garrett is the only other “in house” guy right now.)

I respectfully ask that this be further explained...maybe it already was but got deleted. Can anyone help me out here? Specifically Sea Ray, I’m curious about how you came to those numbers and if it counts interim coaches.

I would say that Doug Marrone of Jags was in house hire Book is still out on him.

[Assembly Hall]

More often than not "in house" hires happen when a successful coach "retires" and someone on the current staff is named HC. There are some exceptions such as Belechick. But to be honest, I can't even think of 20 in house hires in my lifetime. Now when a coach is fired in season, the organization names an "Interim" HC.....but more often than not, he is a lame duck.

[Sea Ray]

Do you notice how Sea Ray uses the 1976 hire of Bill Johnson to help his cause...but eliminates Parcells and Seifert from the discussion.

What does that matter? That ain't the way you posed the question to begin with. So now we are talking from within and a time frame?

The point is most hires from within fail. Rarely do they work out. Here are the last ten hires and I'd only consider one a modest success:

Ben McAdoo-2016
Dirk Koetter-2016
Jim Tomsula-2015
Mike Mularkey-2015
Mike Munchak-2011
Romeo Crennell-2011
Jason Garrett-2010
Tom Cable-2008
Leslie Frazier-2008
Mike Tice-2002

If you want to call Jason Garrett a success I won't argue but it's very debatable. All the rest of those were definitely failures.

If you want to go back further, the failures far outweigh the successes. I'd consider Mike Martz a success in 2000 but he inherited a good team and it went down hill on his watch. But you've also got Dick LeBeau in 2000. Bruce Coslet in 1996. Wade Phillips in 1998 (Bills).

Before you guys go and pick this apart in evey minutia possible, here's my point:

Hires from w/i rarely work out. Of course there are exceptions and your mileage may vary but by far they rarely work out.

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I get that Kitchens is “technically” an in-house hire, but the dude has been with the Browns for only 1 year. It’s not like this dude was an assistant for all of Hue’s tenure or a browns coach for a decade. It’s basically a hire from outside the org. Flame away, but it’s the truth.

My list includes guys who were only there a yr

[kaldaniels]

More often than not "in house" hires happen when a successful coach "retires" and someone on the current staff is named HC. There are some exceptions such as Belechick. But to be honest, I can't even think of 20 in house hires in my lifetime. Now when a coach is fired in season, the organization names an "Interim" HC.....but more often than not, he is a lame duck.

Yeah I missed Marrone...but I’ve with you...it is so rare. That’s why I went back to Parcells and others to Seifert. I’m glad to be shown otherwise. But again I was just wondering the parameters of those numbers.

I almost suspect it includes interim guys but that’s why I’m asking.

[JaxRed]

I'm also thinking maybe Caldwell in Indy.

[kaldaniels]

I would say that Doug Marrone of Jags was in house hire Book is still out on him.

I'm also thinking maybe Caldwell in Indy.

Marrone at least makes me feel like something is off with those numbers. They fell apart this year but an AFC Championship appearance in a couple years is hardly a failure. Caldwell was alright as well.

Unless we are playing real loose with the term and demanding a Super Bowl win or something. At least for me it’s not simply a choice between great coach or failure.

[Chip R]

I think first of all, you have to quantify what being a success would be for all coaches and not just internal hires. Obviously the platinum standard is Belichick and the lowest standard would be someone like Hue Jackson. I think winning percentage is a major consideration. Then playoff appearances, playoff wins, Super Bowl appearances and Super Bowl wins. Once you establish that then you have to look at how many overall are successful. I think if you look at coaching hires overall the percentage of successful coaches is low. You don't need to look any farther than Cleveland to see that. But you have to have reasonable objective standards. Some may say Marv Levy wasn't successful since he never won a Super Bowl and lost four straight. Personally I think that's unreasonable but since there is no criteria everyone has their own opinion.

[kaldaniels]

I think first of all, you have to quantify what being a success would be for all coaches and not just internal hires. Obviously the platinum standard is Belichick and the lowest standard would be someone like Hue Jackson. I think winning percentage is a major consideration. Then playoff appearances, playoff wins, Super Bowl appearances and Super Bowl wins. Once you establish that then you have to look at how many overall are successful. I think if you look at coaching hires overall the percentage of successful coaches is low. You don't need to look any farther than Cleveland to see that. But you have to have reasonable objective standards. Some may say Marv Levy wasn't successful since he never won a Super Bowl and lost four straight. Personally I think that's unreasonable but since there is no criteria everyone has their own opinion.

Absolutely. I’m totally open here.

But when it’s said only 2 of the last 20 failures weren’t failures...it’s ok to ask “alright, who are we talking about?”

[Sea Ray]

Ok I was wondering where this post in the Browns thread went...

Here’s the deal. It seems some posts by others were deleted as things went the personal route? And this got moved.

Anyway Sea Ray used the fact that Kitchens was an in-house hire as a reason to “poo-poo” the hire. That’s fine. But he then said the last 10 in-house hires were failures and 18 of the last 20 in-house guys were failures. As a decent follower of the NFL I know guys aren’t typically hired in-house so I wondered about the list. (This doesn’t prove or disprove anything but Jason Garrett is the only other “in house” guy right now.)

I respectfully ask that this be further explained...maybe it already was but got deleted. Can anyone help me out here? Specifically Sea Ray, I’m curious about how you came to those numbers and if it counts interim coaches.

It does not count coaches who were exclusively interim coaches. They had to at least be hired beyond interim in order to be on this list. I gave the list in the Browns section so please refer to that

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I think first of all, you have to quantify what being a success would be for all coaches and not just internal hires. Obviously the platinum standard is Belichick and the lowest standard would be someone like Hue Jackson. I think winning percentage is a major consideration. Then playoff appearances, playoff wins, Super Bowl appearances and Super Bowl wins. Once you establish that then you have to look at how many overall are successful. I think if you look at coaching hires overall the percentage of successful coaches is low. You don't need to look any farther than Cleveland to see that. But you have to have reasonable objective standards. Some may say Marv Levy wasn't successful since he never won a Super Bowl and lost four straight. Personally I think that's unreasonable but since there is no criteria everyone has their own opinion.

I gave the list on the Browns section. If you want to quibble about who's a success, have at it but I think you'll agree the hires were very underwhelming. For the most part these coaches did not get renewed beyond their initial contracts.

[Assembly Hall]

I'm also thinking maybe Caldwell in Indy.

Yes, absolutely. Rookie season, won 14 and a SB appearance. The Colts also had Lindy Infante who took over for Marchibroda.

[Sea Ray]

Yes, absolutely. Rookie season, won 14 and a SB appearance. The Colts also had Lindy Infante who took over for Marchibroda.

I'd argue Jim Caldwell was/is not a good head coach in the NFL and that he deserves as much credit as Barry Switzer in Dallas. Kudos to him for keeping a good thing going but as soon as there was no Peyton there was no more winning. Furthermore I would not want my Bengals to hire Jim Caldwell now.

That's not to say that I'd be against every internal hire. I'd have been ecstatic if the Bengals had replaced Marvin Lewis with Mike Zimmer before he left for Minny. After what I'd seen from Zim in his time in Cincinnati I felt like he had the chops to be a good head coach. I still feel that way even though he's probably one more bad season away from getting fired in Minny

[Assembly Hall]

The point is most hires from within fail. Rarely do they work out. Here are the last ten hires and I'd only consider one a modest success:

Ben McAdoo-2016
Dirk Koetter-2016
Jim Tomsula-2015
Mike Mularkey-2015
Mike Munchak-2011
Romeo Crennell-2011
Jason Garrett-2010
Tom Cable-2008
Leslie Frazier-2008
Mike Tice-2002

If you want to call Jason Garrett a success I won't argue but it's very debatable. All the rest of those were definitely failures.

If you want to go back further, the failures far outweigh the successes. I'd consider Mike Martz a success in 2000 but he inherited a good team and it went down hill on his watch. But you've also got Dick LeBeau in 2000. Bruce Coslet in 1996. Wade Phillips in 1998 (Bills).

Before you guys go and pick this apart in evey minutia possible, here's my point:

Hires from w/i rarely work out. Of course there are exceptions and your mileage may vary but by far they rarely work out.

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My list includes guys who were only there a yr

Where is Jim Caldwell?