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Thread: Success rate of NFL internal hires

  1. #16
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Cleveland Browns...We're back !!

    Quote Originally Posted by Assembly Hall View Post
    Where is Jim Caldwell?
    Oversight on my part. By all means, if you have any to add to the list, please do.

    Seeing as how the Colts did not bring him back after 3 yrs on the job, I wouldn't call him a success. But if his job was merely to continue the Peyton Manning run then OK, he was successful in doing that. Again it's debatable.

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  3. #17
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Cleveland Browns...We're back !!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    The point is most hires from within fail. Rarely do they work out. Here are the last ten hires and I'd only consider one a modest success:

    Ben McAdoo-2016
    Dirk Koetter-2016
    Jim Tomsula-2015
    Mike Mularkey-2015
    Mike Munchak-2011
    Romeo Crennell-2011
    Jason Garrett-2010
    Tom Cable-2008
    Leslie Frazier-2008
    Mike Tice-2002

    If you want to call Jason Garrett a success I won't argue but it's very debatable. All the rest of those were definitely failures.

    If you want to go back further, the failures far outweigh the successes. I'd consider Mike Martz a success in 2000 but he inherited a good team and it went down hill on his watch. But you've also got Dick LeBeau in 2000. Bruce Coslet in 1996. Wade Phillips in 1998 (Bills).

    Before you guys go and pick this apart in evey minutia possible, here's my point:

    Hires from w/i rarely work out. Of course there are exceptions and your mileage may vary but by far they rarely work out.

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    My list includes guys who were only there a yr
    Thanks.

    That's what I was looking for. It's been asked not to criticize the list piece by piece and I will oblige.

    I'd just say that whether it's an outside hire or an inside hire, most NFL coaches don't work out. And often it's due to not having the right personnel or a franchise QB. There are a handful of guys that could probably get a poorly constructed team to contend, and there are always several poorly constructed teams around the league. So to me, a list of 10 perceived failed "in-house" coaches over the past 20 years just doesn't persuade me to think that means the deck is stacked against Kitchens.

    With the recent OC/DC hires I think Kitchens has set the team up for success. He has never been a HC so how he manages that remains to be seen. But there seems to be (and Dorsey must think so as well) something special about him and the team...I'm willing to find out. They were never going to get a Belichick or Peyton level coach to come to Cleveland this off season, so I'm happy to ride or die with Dorsey's choice.

  4. #18
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Success rate of NFL internal hires

    I'm keep getting confused with which thread I'm in. I wish this had just carried on in the Browns thread - the topic of this thread just feels so lame and it looks like I started it!

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  6. #19
    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Success rate of NFL internal hires

    I mean, the vast majority of NFL head coaches are failures.

    Very very few are not failures.

    Hell, Nick Saban, the college GOAT, was an outside hire and was a complete failure.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    We are back! Assembly Hall's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Cleveland Browns...We're back !!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Oversight on my part. By all means, if you have any to add to the list, please do.

    Seeing as how the Colts did not bring him back after 3 yrs on the job, I wouldn't call him a success. But if his job was merely to continue the Peyton Manning run then OK, he was successful in doing that. Again it's debatable.
    Let me see...3 years on the job. 1 SB appearance, 2 division titles. What is debatable? He was hired from with-in, regardless. Successful...and in those 3 years he actually won a few play off games. Just sayin'.
    ...and this one belongs to the Reds.

  9. #21
    Member GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Success rate of NFL internal hires

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I'm keep getting confused with which thread I'm in. I wish this had just carried on in the Browns thread - the topic of this thread just feels so lame and it looks like I started it!
    I tried do a little research on this because, IMO, SeaRay has brought up an interesting point. But it's something that really hasn't had any kind of study/tracking done on it. At least I haven't found anything on it (LOL). And in this day and age of statistical analysis, trying to cover all your bases, you'd think someone would have investigated to see if it's a factor or not. Because all we can do right now is sight all these examples, either way. But it's still pretty subjective, there's really no sound answer either way IMO, until someone attempts to take it, put all the pieces together, and come to some sort of conclusion.

    And I suck at math, and can't remember where I put my car keys half the time, so it ain't gonna be me (LOL).
    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

  10. #22
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Cleveland Browns...We're back !!

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    Thanks.

    That's what I was looking for. It's been asked not to criticize the list piece by piece and I will oblige.

    I'd just say that whether it's an outside hire or an inside hire, most NFL coaches don't work out. And often it's due to not having the right personnel or a franchise QB. There are a handful of guys that could probably get a poorly constructed team to contend, and there are always several poorly constructed teams around the league. So to me, a list of 10 perceived failed "in-house" coaches over the past 20 years just doesn't persuade me to think that means the deck is stacked against Kitchens.

    With the recent OC/DC hires I think Kitchens has set the team up for success. He has never been a HC so how he manages that remains to be seen. But there seems to be (and Dorsey must think so as well) something special about him and the team...I'm willing to find out. They were never going to get a Belichick or Peyton level coach to come to Cleveland this off season, so I'm happy to ride or die with Dorsey's choice.
    I don't know who asked you not to criticize the list piece by piece. Feel free by me. As for the list, I only of them are head coaches now, nor were they in demand with 8 openings this yr. I don't know, did any of them even get interviewed? It's a very unimpressive list which was my original point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Assembly Hall View Post
    Let me see...3 years on the job. 1 SB appearance, 2 division titles. What is debatable? He was hired from with-in, regardless. Successful...and in those 3 years he actually won a few play off games. Just sayin'.
    Great. Why wasn't he kept on after all that success?

  11. #23
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    Re: 2019 Cleveland Browns...We're back !!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post

    Great. Why wasn't he kept on after all that success?
    Irsay went in a different direction for whatever reason. Not only did Caldwell get terminated, but Polian did as well. Let me ask you this. Would you take 3 years of 2 division titles and a SB appearance as a "Bengal" fan?
    ...and this one belongs to the Reds.

  12. #24
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    Re: 2019 Cleveland Browns...We're back !!

    Quote Originally Posted by Assembly Hall View Post
    Irsay went in a different direction for whatever reason. Not only did Caldwell get terminated, but Polian did as well. Let me ask you this. Would you take 3 years of 2 division titles and a SB appearance as a "Bengal" fan?
    Sure, but but my Bengals didn't have Peyton at his peak.

  13. #25
    We are back! Assembly Hall's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Cleveland Browns...We're back !!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Sure, but but my Bengals didn't have Peyton at his peak.
    What does Peyton have to do with the coach? It ain't the coach's fault that Manning was the QB. So why did Dungy retire when Peyton was at his "peak"?
    ...and this one belongs to the Reds.

  14. #26
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Cleveland Browns...We're back !!

    Quote Originally Posted by Assembly Hall View Post
    What does Peyton have to do with the coach? It ain't the coach's fault that Manning was the QB. So why did Dungy retire when Peyton was at his "peak"?
    I think Dungey had had enough of the grind of coaching but you'd have to ask him.

    I said it before, but if the purpose of hiring Caldwell was to keep the train rolling for a couple more yrs then he was a success

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  16. #27
    We are back! Assembly Hall's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Cleveland Browns...We're back !!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I think Dungey had had enough of the grind of coaching but you'd have to ask him.

    I said it before, but if the purpose of hiring Caldwell was to keep the train rolling for a couple more yrs then he was a success
    The "train" got derailed one year.
    ...and this one belongs to the Reds.

  17. #28
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Cleveland Browns...We're back !!

    Quote Originally Posted by Assembly Hall View Post
    The "train" got derailed one year.
    A great deal for the Colts. I think any team would suck for one yr if that meant getting Andrew Luck. But Caldwell did not survive that derailed yr. I know a lot of Lions fans. They want no part of Caldwell. He did well as Dungey's sidekick and kept the winning going kinda like Barry Switzer did with Dallas. That's probably the one time (when the team is already Super Bowl caliber) where hiring from w/i is a good idea.

  18. #29
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Cleveland Browns...We're back !!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    The point is most hires from within fail. Rarely do they work out. Here are the last ten hires and I'd only consider one a modest success:

    Ben McAdoo-2016
    Dirk Koetter-2016
    Jim Tomsula-2015
    Mike Mularkey-2015
    Mike Munchak-2011
    Romeo Crennell-2011
    Jason Garrett-2010
    Tom Cable-2008
    Leslie Frazier-2008
    Mike Tice-2002

    If you want to call Jason Garrett a success I won't argue but it's very debatable. All the rest of those were definitely failures.

    If you want to go back further, the failures far outweigh the successes. I'd consider Mike Martz a success in 2000 but he inherited a good team and it went down hill on his watch. But you've also got Dick LeBeau in 2000. Bruce Coslet in 1996. Wade Phillips in 1998 (Bills).

    Before you guys go and pick this apart in evey minutia possible, here's my point:

    Hires from w/i rarely work out. Of course there are exceptions and your mileage may vary but by far they rarely work out.

    - - - Updated - - -



    My list includes guys who were only there a yr
    I think more important than whether or not the HC was from the inside or from elsewhere, is what type of QB they had. Garrett had Romo, but other than that, I can't think of a coach walking into a situation where they had a good QB. Sorry I am not considering Eli a good QB at this point in his career.

    I know people are in love with Sean McVay right now, but make no mistake about it, the Rams were loaded with talent prior to him taking over. Its funny, but the HC's who succeed often times walk into a good situation where the ones that fail, walk into a bad situation, make one bad move (often drafting of a QB) and its all downhill from there.

  19. #30
    Member GAC's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Cleveland Browns...We're back !!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I don't know who asked you not to criticize the list piece by piece. Feel free by me.
    No one asked me. In fact, I didn't really pay much attention to those lists being provided back-n-forth. And not out of any disrespect, but simply that they prove nothing definitively IMO.

    Until some sort of study is done, I don't think any sound, concrete position can be put forth either way. JMO.
    Last edited by GAC; 01-14-2019 at 05:00 PM.
    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

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