How strong will rotation be in AAA this year?

[mth123]

My philosophy would be to move on from some of these guys if still not ready; and if they are ready, to keep them in the bigs if possible. Move things along.

Not sure of the purpose of Sal Romano in the minor leagues. He’s 25, has over 230 MLB innings. If he can’t make the Reds even as a long reliever, I’d try to trade him.

Obviously same with Stephenson, out of options. Cody Reed should be in the majors, it serves no purpose to send him down still again.

I could see a bit more time at AAA for Mahle, he’s a little younger and somebody has to be the first call up if an injury. Mella seems like a true AAA man for this year.

Generally, I’m not in favor of treating every pitching prospect like fine wine in the cellar. At some point, either call them up or move them.

Romano needs to learn a third pitch to be a starter and if he can work on it where the games don't count in the big league standings, I think he has a chance to be a solid middle of the rotation. Reed, I'd keep ready on regular turns as the 6th guy. Mahle is the guy who I think is ready for the big league lump taking and I'd keep him in the big league rotation and move on from Disco. I'd move on from Stephenson. Sims and Mella are OK for another year in AAA.

So, move on from Disco, Despaigne and Stephenson. Mahle as 5th starter. Wisler in the big league pen.

AAA rotation: Reed, Romano, Sims, Mella and Gutierrez. Finnegan and Stephens in AAA Bullpen.

AA Rotation: Santillan, Lopez, Moss and whoever

[TRF]

They just signed Despaigne, but to a minor league deal. He's a depth add.

You need a plan to move on from Disco. Can't give him away. He's got value. I'd rather Mahle get some more innings/development in AAA with Disco limiting his own innings as the 5th starter.

Lopez is the fungible asset here. My AAA rotation would be Reed, Mahle, Romano, Sims, Mella with Gutierrez coming up at the ASB.

I believe if Stephenson is not traded there are two scenarios: Bullpen or sneak him through waivers. I think if the latter is attempted, he gets claimed.

[Bourgeois Zee]

We don't know the AAA rotation yet because we don't know what injuries will pop up or who the Reds might sign as free agents.

That said, here's my guess for now:
Tyler Mahle
First in line when one of the first five goes down. Should be working on locating his fastball and finding a way to limit HR. Good bet to be the ace of the Bat staff.

Vlad Gutierrez
Top 10 prospect who pitched well enough in AA to get the promotion. Will, IMO, eventually be a bullpen guy, but it's not a bad idea to continue to work him as a starter. Needs to work on consistency and limiting big innings/ poor outings. Won't make the major league roster this season, but could be set up nicely as an option for 2020.

Lucas Sims
Many seem to forget about him, but Sims is a legitimate prospect who could well blossom into a solid starter. Was dominant in 20 AAA games and 100 innings last year. He needs to work on control and location, but has the K rate to be a AAA ace. Good second option behind Mahle for MLB innings. Already on the 40-man roster. Will compete for a starting berth next season. This is his last option.

Felix Jorge
The veteran arm they can turn to in a pinch, Jorge should be an innings eater in Louisville. Won't wow anyone with numbers but should be counted on for stability in a young staff who might be moving up and down the ladder often. Isn't on the 40-man roster, so he'll be the rock on which the rest of the staff depends. Jorge may be a placeholder for Clayton Blackburn, who's coming back from TJ surgery.

Keury Mella
I go back and forth on Mella and Lopez as bullpen fodder this season. Both are on the 40-man and have had major league experience. Right now, Mella's success as a AA starter means he'll be given another shot. On the 40-man-- might be turned into an impact relief arm.

IMO, Reed, Wisler, and Robert Stephenson will make the major league bullpen in a 13-man pitching staff. (Options obviously play a role with that.) Romano will be converted to a bullpen role in AAA, then be the first callup with ineffectiveness or injury. That AAA bullpen, btw, will be fairly outstanding as well. 12 guys have mlb experience, and that doesn't even include Boshers, Herget, Powers, or Wooten.

If nothing else, the pitching staff will have depth.

[Edd Roush]

We don't know the AAA rotation yet because we don't know what injuries will pop up or who the Reds might sign as free agents.

That said, here's my guess for now:
Tyler Mahle
First in line when one of the first five goes down. Should be working on locating his fastball and finding a way to limit HR. Good bet to be the ace of the Bat staff.

Vlad Gutierrez
Top 10 prospect who pitched well enough in AA to get the promotion. Will, IMO, eventually be a bullpen guy, but it's not a bad idea to continue to work him as a starter. Needs to work on consistency and limiting big innings/ poor outings. Won't make the major league roster this season, but could be set up nicely as an option for 2020.

Lucas Sims
Many seem to forget about him, but Sims is a legitimate prospect who could well blossom into a solid starter. Was dominant in 20 AAA games and 100 innings last year. He needs to work on control and location, but has the K rate to be a AAA ace. Good second option behind Mahle for MLB innings. Already on the 40-man roster. Will compete for a starting berth next season. This is his last option.

Felix Jorge
The veteran arm they can turn to in a pinch, Jorge should be an innings eater in Louisville. Won't wow anyone with numbers but should be counted on for stability in a young staff who might be moving up and down the ladder often. Isn't on the 40-man roster, so he'll be the rock on which the rest of the staff depends. Jorge may be a placeholder for Clayton Blackburn, who's coming back from TJ surgery.

Keury Mella
I go back and forth on Mella and Lopez as bullpen fodder this season. Both are on the 40-man and have had major league experience. Right now, Mella's success as a AA starter means he'll be given another shot. On the 40-man-- might be turned into an impact relief arm.

IMO, Reed, Wisler, and Robert Stephenson will make the major league bullpen in a 13-man pitching staff. (Options obviously play a role with that.) Romano will be converted to a bullpen role in AAA, then be the first callup with ineffectiveness or injury. That AAA bullpen, btw, will be fairly outstanding as well. 12 guys have mlb experience, and that doesn't even include Boshers, Herget, Powers, or Wooten.

If nothing else, the pitching staff will have depth.

Jorge is more interesting than I remember him. Your write-up doesn't do him much justice, either.

Jorge battled a triceps issue last year, which may be tough to recover from, but the year before he had a 3.54 ERA, 3.57 FIP and 3.35 xFIP in AA in 22 starts. Kiley McDaniel wrote that he has "an above-average slider and changeup, but his 90-92 mph fastball plays down in games, so he’s more of a depth arm." Jorge is actually the same age as Jose Lopez and Sal Romano (25).

I still think I give Romano the rotation spot, though. He was very good in AA in 2016 (3.52 ERA, 3.06 FIP and 3.02 xFIP in 27 starts, then was adequate in 10 AAA starts in 2017 before doing alright in 16 starts in Cincinnati that season. Granted, 2018 was a rough year for Sal, but he was generally healthy, from what I remember. He has made major changes to his body and he still probably has the most upside of Jorge, Romano and Lopez.

I don't think I will be upset either way if one of the three get the spot though since Lopez was also great in AA in 2017 (2.43 ERA, 3.57 FIP and 3.27 xFIP in 15 starts) and was healthy last year. Based upon Kiley and Eric's write-up at fangraphs this year, Lopez also has good stuff "Though his peak velocity hasn’t returned, he averages about 92 mph on a fastball that touches 95 and features enough life that it’s capable of missing bats up in the zone. His secondaries are mostly average, and he should debut in 2019 as a relief or backend starter option."

[Bourgeois Zee]

I believe, Edd, moving to the pen might not be the demotion it typically has been.

Romano gets major league innings as a reliever. So does Lopez.

I'm not sure either gets many of them as AAA starters.

[corkedbat]

What is Wisler's situation on options?

Out, IIRC.

[Edd Roush]

I believe, Edd, moving to the pen might not be the demotion it typically has been.

Romano gets major league innings as a reliever. So does Lopez.

I'm not sure either gets many of them as AAA starters.

I can see what you are saying. I wonder if Romano and/or Lopez would be better relievers if they pitched out of the bullpen or pitched out of the rotation in Louisville. Seems like you would want your best pitchers to throw the most amount of innings because they could use the additional development time.

It seems like Romano can be a better pitcher and therefore reliever if he gets 150 innings in the rotation instead of 50 in the 'pen. It wouldn't surprise me if I am wrong, though.

[Bourgeois Zee]

I can see what you are saying. I wonder if Romano and/or Lopez would be better relievers if they pitched out of the bullpen or pitched out of the rotation in Louisville. Seems like you would want your best pitchers to throw the most amount of innings because they could use the additional development time.

It seems like Romano can be a better pitcher and therefore reliever if he gets 150 innings in the rotation instead of 50 in the 'pen. It wouldn't surprise me if I am wrong, though.

I'd argue, at this point, getting used to the role and what type of pitches is more important than development through innings.

He doesn't need to pace himself at all, and that takes some getting used to.

Getting rid of tertiary pitches might as well.

[Sea Ray]

I can see what you are saying. I wonder if Romano and/or Lopez would be better relievers if they pitched out of the bullpen or pitched out of the rotation in Louisville. Seems like you would want your best pitchers to throw the most amount of innings because they could use the additional development time.

It seems like Romano can be a better pitcher and therefore reliever if he gets 150 innings in the rotation instead of 50 in the 'pen. It wouldn't surprise me if I am wrong, though.

Romano was in town in Jan for some event; he's lost a ton of weight and is motivated. He of course wants to start but will do anything the Reds ask him to do. Naturally he doesn't want to be in AAA. Let's see what kind of Spring Training he has.

Spring Training will be vitally important for many of our pitchers this year

[mth123]

I'd prefer to give Romano another year in AAA to see if he can develop that change up. He's a durable big bodied dude that should be able to eat a lot of innings in the Arroyo mold. I think putting him in the pen wastes what may be his best attribute. They can always move him to the pen later on. The Reds don't really need another 12th man on the staff type. They have Wisler, Stephens, Reyes, Bowman, Peralta, Despaigne, Herget, Krol and others for that role. 5 spots are locked in with Iggy, Hughes, Hernandez, Lorenzen and Garrett. They probably still make an acquisition to add a sixth guy locked in. Next year they will still need guys to start when the rentals walk. Mella, Reed and Romano should all get another year to work on their stuff without having to worry about big league results affecting the standings.

If a need develops, they can always call anybody up. I don't think there is much of an adjustment to moving from starting to relief.

Step 1: ID your weakest pitch
Step 2: Stop throwing it in games.

Adjustment complete.

[Kc61]

I'd prefer to give Romano another year in AAA to see if he can develop that change up. He's a durable big bodied dude that should be able to eat a lot of innings in the Arroyo mold. I think putting him in the pen wastes what may be his best attribute. They can always move him to the pen later on. The Reds don't really need another 12th man on the staff type. They have Wisler, Stephens, Reyes, Bowman, Peralta, Despaigne, Herget, Krol and others for that role. 5 spots are locked in with Iggy, Hughes, Hernandez, Lorenzen and Garrett. They probably still make an acquisition to add a sixth guy locked in. Next year they will still need guys to start when the rentals walk. Mella, Reed and Romano should all get another year to work on their stuff without having to worry about big league results affecting the standings.

If a need develops, they can always call anybody up. I don't think there is much of an adjustment to moving from starting to relief.

Step 1: ID your weakest pitch
Step 2: Stop throwing it in games.

Adjustment complete.

Romano should be competing as a multi-inning reliever for the Reds, an important role today. Keeping him a starter - with still more AAA — is likely a waste of time. Reds can get BOR starters easily enough, he can provide effective 2-3 inning stints from the pen.

Over 7 years Romano has 665 minor league innings and 232 major league innings. If he isn’t ready to contribute to the Reds, he probably never will be.

Sal would have a good chance to make the team as a multi-inning reliever. He’s durable and some have always believed his stuff would play up throwing shorter stints.

[mth123]

Romano should be competing as a multi-inning reliever for the Reds. Trying to make him a starter in today’s game is a waste of time. He doesn’t have the stuff to be a 1-3 starter and I wouldn’t spend time and effort making him a BOR. You can get BORs.

Romano has 665 minor league innings and 232 major league innings. If he isn’t ready to contribute to the Reds, he probably never will be.

My guess is Sal would have a good chance to make the team as a multi-inning reliever. He’s durable and some have always believed his stuff would play up throwing shorter stints.

Unless there are injuries, he's not making the roster IMO. If he's going to AAA anyway, I'd let him work on the change-up as a starter.

IF he does master it, he's got plenty of stuff to be a successful starter IMO. I like his chances better than most of the AAA guys except for Mahle and maybe Mella.

[kaldaniels]

If they were inclined the Reds could pay some Dodger-esque games with the 10-Day DL to give Disco/Mahle/youngsters rest keeping them fresh.

[Kc61]

Unless there are injuries, he's not making the roster IMO. If he's going to AAA anyway, I'd let him work on the change-up. IF he does master it, he's got plenty of stuff to be a successful starter IMO. I like his chances better than most of the AAA guys except for Mahle and maybe Mella.

There will be openings, Sal can make the team. There always are. Disregard these off-season predictions. When ST starts we’ll learn the real state of play, who’s healthy, who isn’t, and then the typical ST injuries. Last year almost half the pitching staff was injured.

As for this change up thing, Sal has been in the Reds’ system for seven years. If he isn’t ready to pitch, he likely never will be. You can’t disguise his basic stuff by now teaching him a changeup.

His stuff will play better in the bullpen. It’s probably where he always belonged.

[mth123]

There will be openings, Sal can make the team. There always are. Disregard these off-season predictions. When ST starts we’ll learn the real state of play, who’s healthy, who isn’t, and then the typical ST injuries. Last year almost half the pitching staff was injured.

As for this change up thing, Sal has been in the Reds’ system for seven years. If he isn’t ready to pitch, he likely never will be. You can’t disguise his basic stuff by now teaching him a changeup.

His stuff will play better in the bullpen. It’s probably where he always belonged.

Except his stuff is OK. He just is only a two pitch pitcher who was called to the big leagues because the team neglected to get somebody else because of the Bailey, Disco, Finnegan pipedream. He was working on the change, they called him up and he shelved it. When his other two pitches were on, he had good games. When one was off, he got killed by hitters who got a long look at him as a starter. If he can add an average change-up, he can be a good starter IMO. I'd let him finish working on it the way he was when the team called him up out of necessity. The Reds are going to have more openings and fewer valid options in the rotation than the pen IMO. ( I still don't think they have 5 valid options after adding three guys this winter). He can always go to the bullpen if that is where the opening develops. It's an easy transition.