BP Top 101 Prospect List - 2019

[Griffey012]

BP dropped their 2019 addition of the top 101 prospects.

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...s-the-top-101/

4 Reds on the list:

Senzel 9
Trammell 11
India 35
Greene 75

Before you get scared about Greene's rank, consider the fact he is 2 spots ahead of AJ Puk, which I find to be ludicrous in its own right. It seems like they have some strict penalties for prior injuries/injury risk.

[Vander]

Senzel's position is hilarious.

"3B/2B/SS?/OF?"

[Tom Servo]

Trammell and India several slots higher than I thought, Senzel and Greene are lower than I thought.

Madrigal was my guy in the draft last summer but I'm still pretty shocked he's #15. And I have no idea how someone like Sandy Alcantara is ahead of Greene.

[kaldaniels]

Kyler Murray at 101 had to be a glamour ranking, right?

Or do you truly think he was prospect 101?

[Edd Roush]

I am shocked by their take on Jo Adell. They really aren't afraid of all of those strikeouts. I would not have him in the top 10.

[kaldaniels]

I am shocked by their take on Jo Adell. They really aren't afraid of all of those strikeouts. I would not have him in the top 10.

He’s a polarizing guy. And I’m a sucker for any “non-chalk” prospect list so I like it.

[Griffey012]

I am shocked by their take on Jo Adell. They really aren't afraid of all of those strikeouts. I would not have him in the top 10.

Yeah, I have a tough time putting Adell (who I really like) ahead of Eloy and Victor Robles, who are major league ready with elite talent in their own right.

[Griffey012]

Baseball America also just dropped their own list. Santillan comes in at 69 (niiiice), Greene 57, India 51, Trammell 33, Senzel 10.

Personally, I think the BA list is light years better than the BP list. Actually considering dropping my BP subscription because that is how poorly I think of their overall list. Seems like their list is very tools heavy, performance be damned this year. High K rates at low levels are always a red flag to me, but not to them it seems. They also had what I feel are some pretty glaring omissions: Gavin Lux, Ronaldo Hernandez, Alec Bohm, Corbin Burnes.

[kaldaniels]

Baseball America also just dropped their own list. Santillan comes in at 69 (niiiice), Greene 57, India 51, Trammell 33, Senzel 10.

Personally, I think the BA list is light years better than the BP list. Actually considering dropping my BP subscription because that is how poorly I think of their overall list. Seems like their list is very tools heavy, performance be damned this year. High K rates at low levels are always a red flag to me, but not to them it seems. They also had what I feel are some pretty glaring omissions: Gavin Lux, Ronaldo Hernandez, Alec Bohm, Corbin Burnes.

On a somewhat related note I caught a bit of the movie “Signs” the other day. I couldn’t help but think home run/strikeout king Merrill “Swing Away” Hess might have had better success in today’s analytical world. But then that means the aliens may have won had he not been at the farm.

[Griffey012]

On a somewhat related note I caught a bit of the movie “Signs” the other day. I couldn’t help but think home run/strikeout king Merrill “Swing Away” Hess might have had better success in today’s analytical world. But then that means the aliens may have won had he not been at the farm.

I'll have to check out that movie. It seems like some analysts just say "well, if this kid can improve his plate discipline, contact rates he will be a superstar" as if it is akin to something as simple as an athletic fielder cutting down errors. To me, it is the hardest thing for a young player to change/fix.

[RedTeamGo!]

India. Yayyyy.

Greene. Oyyyy.

[kaldaniels]

India. Yayyyy.

Greene. Oyyyy.

It's low for me. But I wonder how much the forearm issue weighs into things here.

I know Greene says he's fine but that's what they all say. If I'm pulling numbers out of my rear end there's a 10-20 percent chance this year turns out to be a "wasted" year and TJ later in the season keeps him out till 2021. I'm not trying to be some doomsday guy but given the forearm issue, that is some real risk...and I'd price it in to some extent when ranking him.

India - I've seen/heard a lot of positive things on him lately on podcasts/twitter. After stepping back many seem to think he just ran out of gas late last season.

[RedTeamGo!]

It's low for me. But I wonder how much the forearm issue weighs into things here.

I know Greene says he's fine but that's what they all say. If I'm pulling numbers out of my rear end there's a 10-20 percent chance this year turns out to be a "wasted" year and TJ later in the season keeps him out till 2021. I'm not trying to be some doomsday guy but given the forearm issue, that is some real risk...and I'd price it in to some extent when ranking him.

India - I've seen/heard a lot of positive things on him lately on podcasts/twitter. After stepping back many seem to think he just ran out of gas late last season.

I’ve been saying that about India since the season ended to the skeptics on here. I don’t think people understand how much baseball he played last year and how much he bounced around. I think the Reds actually shut him down for a few games and he came back and crushed the ball.

[M2]

BP likes the Reds bats better than the arms. That strikes me as a reasonable take.

The one thing that stands out to me on this list (and pretty much every top 100 we've seen over the past five seasons), is the quality and number of SS prospects (3 in the top 10, 5 in the top 25, 13 total - at least those primarily listed as a SS). I want in on that.

[BillDoran]

I’ve been saying that about India since the season ended to the skeptics on here. I don’t think people understand how much baseball he played last year and how much he bounced around. I think the Reds actually shut him down for a few games and he came back and crushed the ball.

It's certainly a possibility that India ran out of gas last year. He played a boatload of games against good competition (including some high intensity games in the College World Series). That said, his numbers aren't special. They're not damning either, and being tired at the end of the season is conjecture on our part and and an excuse.

I contend he gets a big bump for being proximate and similar to Senzel. I know everyone on here is smart enough to distinguish between the two, but it's really easy to imagine India's success after watching Senzel do it so recently. I don't think his first season tells us a whole lot, but for a guy that had one dynamite year of college ball, it's a bullish market. I know this is an unpopular opinion, and I hope he lights the world on fire, but some of the enthusiasm seems early.