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Thread: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

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    Making A Pass By GABP OhioRiverBarge's Avatar
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    Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Baseball Prospectus pegs our #1 prospect with a 2.0 WARp.

    MLB.com already has him listed as a CF and it is possible they’re right.

    Dick Williams would rather have him than three years of a 2x Cy Young winner and two years of the best catcher in baseball.

    In just one week we will see him rubbing shoulders with Joey Votto, Yasiel Puig, and Sonny Gray. Which is weird.

    Plenty to talk about with this Tennessee Volunteer. If not for all the moves this offseason, his debut would probably be the biggest story of the year.

    Share your expectations and predictions for the first year of what will hopefully be a very long and storied career as a Cincinnati Red.
    "In our sundown perambulations of late through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base,' a certain game of ball. We wish such sights were more common among us...The game of ball is glorious..." -Walt Whitman, 1846

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Assuming a big enough sample size, I'd be stunned if he has an OPS below around .770. I think he'll be really good really quickly.

    The potential CF thing gives me pause, I don't think it's optimal, but it's a means to an end. I'm less concerned about how he looks out there then I am with making sure he doesn't crash into any walls.

    Probably the biggest question is if the Reds do the "send him down to the minors...for reasons" thing to start the year. There are built in excuses like rust or the defense issue, but he'll have spring training for those things, and I doubt anybody seriously thinks he isn't ready for primetime yet.
    “I don’t care,” Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. “He’s in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.”

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    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    .285/.350/.475/.825 with above average defense in CF. 125 Games played and 500+ PAs.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    I'm less concerned about how he looks out there then I am with making sure he doesn't crash into any walls.
    Or any Puigs. They should put a reflective yellow vest on Senzel and remind Puig every inning to not run him over.

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    I would much rather have Senzel get used to playing CF every day at AAA for about six weeks, than having him play a few spring training innings and be the Opening Day CF.
    “I walk into the clubhouse today and it’s like walking into the Mayo Clinic. We have four doctors, three therapists and five trainers. Back when I broke in, we had one trainer who carried a bottle of rubbing alcohol, and by the 7th inning he’d already drunk it.” —Tommy Lasorda

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    I absolutely hate UT, but playing against him every year sucked. He played every position they asked him to play. I don't think the CF move will be a big deal for him. This kid is a natural ball player. I am thinking .285/18/100/68/25. BA/HR/R/RBI/SB.

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    I don't want to grow up Red Raindog's Avatar
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Gold Glove in CF - Triple Crown - All Star - H.O.F.

    Am I aiming high enough?

    But I'd be very satisfied with mth123's guess
    The older I get - the better I was

    and yes - I hate the Cardinals (Reds fan since 1958)

    I miss Raisor

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    No real concern with the CF plan, other than his ability to avoid major crashes (wall, Puig). Don't see him staying there beyond 2019 anyway. Guy's a ballplayer and will be a good one if he stays healthy. Way beyond anything else, the vertigo is the story for me. Is he past it for good?
    "Baseball is a very, very complex business. It's more of a people business than most businesses." - Bob Castellini

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    .285/.350/.475/.825 with above average defense in CF. 125 Games played and 500+ PAs.
    Above average defense in CF involves comparison to other CFs. That would be elite and miles better than almost any LF or RF. I would accept close to ML average.

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    it is very rare for athletic infielders to fail defensively when moving to centerfield. now, usually these players are shortstops before moving (robin yount, billy hamilton, etc) and senzel is a third baseman, but precedent still gives me optimism (because i view senzel as an athletic infielder, although of course not on the same level of a yount or hamilton). i imagine most baseball players who are athletic enough and good enough defensively to play both positions would tell you it is much harder to play third base than it is centerfield.

    so, for all of these reasons, i'd be surprised if center is too much to handle for senzel. he will probably do very well there imo. i bet he will be an upgrade in cf over what choo provided in 2013, and that situation worked out more than fine for the reds.

    as for offensively? i'm expecting an ops north of .800. but he of course needs to get three weeks in at louisville to begin the season to, well, 'sharpen his game.'

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    I’m on board for the Senzel to CF experiment. My question is what do the Reds do if Geno, Scooter or Votto go to the DL for an extended time? Do they keep Senzel in CF and have a lesser infielder play everyday or do they have Senzel fill in for the injured infielder and let Schebler or Puig play CF?

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    Daffy Duck RedTeamGo!'s Avatar
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    CF scares me.

    It’s not even close to his natural position. I have a really bad feeling the reds are going to ruin their best prospect in a long time.

    The beyond obvious move was to trade Scooter and pencil Senzel in at 2B for the next 6 years.

    I know I’ll get flamed for that take, but whatever.
    What would you say.....ya do here?

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by JFLegal View Post
    it is very rare for athletic infielders to fail defensively when moving to centerfield. now, usually these players are shortstops before moving (robin yount, billy hamilton, etc) and senzel is a third baseman, but precedent still gives me optimism (because i view senzel as an athletic infielder, although of course not on the same level of a yount or hamilton). i imagine most baseball players who are athletic enough and good enough defensively to play both positions would tell you it is much harder to play third base than it is centerfield.

    so, for all of these reasons, i'd be surprised if center is too much to handle for senzel. he will probably do very well there imo. i bet he will be an upgrade in cf over what choo provided in 2013, and that situation worked out more than fine for the reds.

    as for offensively? i'm expecting an ops north of .800. but he of course needs to get three weeks in at louisville to begin the season to, well, 'sharpen his game.'
    Eric Davis and Reggie Sanders were both originally drafted as SS
    Last edited by Benihana; 02-10-2019 at 01:01 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    .285/.350/.475/.825 with above average defense in CF. 125 Games played and 500+ PAs.
    This would make him a 5+ win player, love Senzel but might want to manage rookie season expectations a bit.

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    I would much rather have Senzel get used to playing CF every day at AAA for about six weeks, than having him play a few spring training innings and be the Opening Day CF.
    I think it must be clear that he needs the extra time at AAA. Most are convinced that he won't see the Reds until they have another year of control. Doing that could incur ill will and would make it harder to extend him. IMO, if he is ready, Reds should start him on ML roster. Then, if his first year is healthy and promising, look to extend him while the team has some leverage. If he does not perform well, they can always option him.

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