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Thread: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

  1. #76
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Senzel strikes me as a Pete Rose type player, not so much in attitude, but in all around athleticism and ability to play just about anywhere. I think he'll be fine in Center and likely move to the infield at some point after one or more of the others eventually move on elsewhere.

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  3. #77
    Middle Class Rut TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    wut
    People are pinning hopes on Senzel like he's Votto at the plate and Hamilton in the field. He's coming off a 44 game season marred by injury and illness. Can we not just pump the brakes a bit?

    If the Reds were to win the WS this year without Senzel playing a single inning above AAA, somehow that's a BAD THING?

    You all see him as some baseball messiah. I see a kid with a potentially career ending illness. But somehow it's a crime to let him show he's 100% for a month or so in AAA.
    There is nothing you keep there is only your reflection.

    "There was like a softness to it, a glow to it. I felt... I felt warm."

    -- Joseph Daniel Votto 7/10/2017

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    Member Tracy Jones's Avatar
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    People are pinning hopes on Senzel like he's Votto at the plate and Hamilton in the field. He's coming off a 44 game season marred by injury and illness. Can we not just pump the brakes a bit?

    If the Reds were to win the WS this year without Senzel playing a single inning above AAA, somehow that's a BAD THING?

    You all see him as some baseball messiah. I see a kid with a potentially career ending illness. But somehow it's a crime to let him show he's 100% for a month or so in AAA.
    The same can be said for Winker. The guy is coming off shoulder surgery and many here have a .900 OPS season etched in stone for him and scoff at the mere mention of platooning him with Kemp for the first couple months.

  6. #79
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    I don't see how it is so hard to understand that Nick Senzels performance will be the deciding factor in when/where he plays. The only possible thing that he cannot control would be the Reds ensuring they get that extra year of control.

    The idea that he has to prove he's healthy is irrelevant. Every player has to prove they are healthy, and many players are coming in from injuries suffered the previous season. That has nothing to do with where he plays.

    I would be shocked if he's on the OD roster but if he blisters ST and is outperforming the other OFs maybe the Reds show good faith and start the season with him.

    I don't care if the Reds are undefeated, they are not going to keep him in AAA if he is performing like expected. He would at least be brought up and inserted into a utility role like Pujols played in his first ML season.

    The vertigo isn't nearly as big of an issue as his finger and elbow in terms of right now. If the vertigo comes back it could be a very big issue but he's reportedly currently healthy.

    The only thing that will keep Nick Senzel in the minor leagues in Nick Senzel (again, beyond the potential Kris Bryant treatment).

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    Ron Madden (02-12-2019)

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Along with stat predictions for Senzel, who do you guys think is a comparable player? Any former ballplayers strike you as similar to Senzel's talents?

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by MikeS21 View Post
    The fact that he has never played one inning in the OF, let alone CF, plus he hasnít hit game speed pitching since July should send him to AAA regardless. Even if he has a great Spring Training, itís still meaningless spring training numbers.
    This is my favorite statement in the entire thread.

    - Reasons for going to AAA - "hasn't played CF, no game speed pitching since July"

    *Things he'll do in ST - play CF, hit game speed pitching

    - "Even if he has a great ST, it is meaningless"

    Seriously awesome post. This on top of calling Kris Bryant a prima donna for a Cubs business decision and then contradicting yourself by saying Tucker Barnhart has the right to be upset about a potential Reds business decision.

    Bravo

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    Wonderful Monds (02-12-2019)

  11. #82
    Member Rojo Rijo's Avatar
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by reds77 View Post
    Along with stat predictions for Senzel, who do you guys think is a comparable player? Any former ballplayers strike you as similar to Senzel's talents?
    Sandberg, but I'm just talking skill set.

    In no way am I saying he'll be Sandberg, just that his tools and profile reminds me a bit of him.
    Last edited by Rojo Rijo; 02-12-2019 at 11:39 AM.

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    reds77 (02-12-2019)

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    Member Tracy Jones's Avatar
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by reds77 View Post
    Along with stat predictions for Senzel, who do you guys think is a comparable player? Any former ballplayers strike you as similar to Senzel's talents?
    Babe Ruth

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by reds77 View Post
    Along with stat predictions for Senzel, who do you guys think is a comparable player? Any former ballplayers strike you as similar to Senzel's talents?
    Mickey Mantle

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    Making A Pass By GABP OhioRiverBarge's Avatar
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by reds77 View Post
    Along with stat predictions for Senzel, who do you guys think is a comparable player? Any former ballplayers strike you as similar to Senzel's talents?
    Just a cursory WAR comparison between recognizable rookie seasons.

    Player as Rookie - ROY Finish - WAR

    Bryce Harper - 1st - 5.2
    Joey Votto - 2nd - 3.3
    Todd Frazier - 3rd - 2.3

    Nick Senzel - N/A - 2.0 (Baseball Prosp)
    1.8 (Steamer)
    2.4 (DepthCharts)

    According to these three projections, heís closer to Frazier than Votto or Harper. But these are projection and I think theyíre closer to Senzelís floor. That said, Frazier had a monster year that year, but fizzled at the end, which isnít unlike a typical rookie season.
    Last edited by OhioRiverBarge; 02-12-2019 at 11:49 AM.
    "In our sundown perambulations of late through the outer parts of Brooklyn, we have observed several parties of youngsters playing 'base,' a certain game of ball. We wish such sights were more common among us...The game of ball is glorious..." -Walt Whitman, 1846

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by reds77 View Post
    Along with stat predictions for Senzel, who do you guys think is a comparable player? Any former ballplayers strike you as similar to Senzel's talents?
    If we're going with current players, prime Senzel strikes me as an Anthony Rendon type player. Great hit tool and discipline, good but not elite power and speed, defense solid but not worth writing home about.

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Senzel reminds me of Ted Williams. Senzel probably has more hitting ability though. Fielding wise, I would probably compare him to a young Andruw Jones in CF.

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    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by reds77 View Post
    Along with stat predictions for Senzel, who do you guys think is a comparable player? Any former ballplayers strike you as similar to Senzel's talents?
    In terms of upside, I picture Justin Turner (Dodgers-version) or Anthony Rendon.

    More middle ground would be like 2016/2017 Matt Carpenter or Mike Lowell.
    Last edited by RedsManRick; 02-12-2019 at 12:39 PM.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    People are pinning hopes on Senzel like he's Votto at the plate and Hamilton in the field. He's coming off a 44 game season marred by injury and illness. Can we not just pump the brakes a bit?

    If the Reds were to win the WS this year without Senzel playing a single inning above AAA, somehow that's a BAD THING?

    You all see him as some baseball messiah. I see a kid with a potentially career ending illness. But somehow it's a crime to let him show he's 100% for a month or so in AAA.
    The only reason they would keep him in AAA all year is to drastically screw him over when it comes to service time, which yes, I would view as an extremely bad thing.

    Like he was obviously ready last year at the beginning of the season, if they left him down in AAA again all year, he would never play a day beyond arbitration for this team and might even file a grievance, both of which would be very justified.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Sheed View Post
    When it comes to crow, I'd like nothing more than to eat Dick's all season long and into the postseason.

  21. #90
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Rojo Rijo View Post
    Sandberg, but I'm just talking skill set.

    In no way am I saying he'll be Sandberg, just that his tools and profile reminds me a bit of him.
    A fair and optimistic comparison. Baseball Reference comps Sandberg to hitters such as Lou Whitaker, Joe Torre, Miguel Tejada, Barry Larkin, and Chase Utley. I'd gladly take those kind of numbers for Senzel.

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    Rojo Rijo (02-12-2019)


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