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Thread: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

  1. #496
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Wow. Did you start paying attention yesterday? The Reds have been talking about changes to scouting and development throughout this decade. Are the most recent tweaks going to cause radically different outcomes? I hope so, but no one should pretend this isn't a common refrain for the franchise.

    And for the changes that just got made how in the blue hell can you assert "from all signs it is headed in the right direction"? They need to draft/trade for some promising prospect arms and do a far better job on the development end before we have something that qualifies as "signs." I like that they're no longer trying to force the issue on making incomplete 25-year-old pitchers into SPs, but that's not exactly dramatic change so much as acknowledgment of reality.

    Now for Mackenzie Gore. Everyone on the planet is ranking him higher than Greene. BA, MLB and BP all ranked him higher than Greene last year. At some point you've got to remove the homer goggles and recognize other organizations have prospects too.
    Talk is just that talk, their have actually been changes this year. Most notably the hiring of Johnson and Cotham and adopting their philosophies. Obviously sweeping changes don't happen all at once and we wont know the true outcome for years, but if you can't see some effort of change it is because you don't want to.

    I watch the players and make my own decisions. I don't spew prospect rankings as gospel. I don't have rose colored glasses, I just have watched Greene a ton and know what he can do. I have watched Trammel and thought lower of him then most. If not for the injury the so called prospect rankings would not rank Gore higher. I enjoy prospect rankings, but using them as gospel is something I don't do. I trust what I see, my opinion thats all it is.
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  3. #497
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Senzling Hot View Post
    Talk is just that talk, their have actually been changes this year. Most notably the hiring of Johnson and Cotham and adopting their philosophies. Obviously sweeping changes don't happen all at once and we wont know the true outcome for years, but if you can't see some effort of change it is because you don't want to.

    I watch the players and make my own decisions. I don't spew prospect rankings as gospel. I don't have rose colored glasses, I just have watched Greene a ton and know what he can do. I have watched Trammel and thought lower of him then most. If not for the injury the so called prospect rankings would not rank Gore higher. I enjoy prospect rankings, but using them as gospel is something I don't do. I trust what I see, my opinion thats all it is.
    And right now all you've got here is talk. In fact, it's talk we've heard frequently. Best thing Johnson has going for him is a better staff of pitchers. As for development (which lies outside the jobs of Johnson and Cotham, because they're on the MLB staff), we simply have no idea how that's going to pan out.

    The rankings groups generally ranked Gore ahead of Greene before his injury. And you're doing a lousy job of convincing me to trust what you see.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

  4. #498
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    And right now all you've got here is talk. In fact, it's talk we've heard frequently. Best thing Johnson has going for him is a better staff of pitchers. As for development (which lies outside the jobs of Johnson and Cotham, because they're on the MLB staff), we simply have no idea how that's going to pan out.

    The rankings groups generally ranked Gore ahead of Greene before his injury. And you're doing a lousy job of convincing me to trust what you see.
    It was reported one of the reasons Johnson came here was because he would have a big say if not total control in organizational pitching development and philosophies. I have been a Reds fan my whole life and have heard everything before like you have, but this time they have made changes. They identified coaches with certain philosophies and went out and got them from good organizations. Only time will tell but some people instead of wearing their rose colored glasses put on their negative nelly frames and find fault where there is none. As for trusting my eyes you don't need to because I do.
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Senzling Hot View Post
    It was reported one of the reasons Johnson came here was because he would have a big say if not total control in organizational pitching development and philosophies. I have been a Reds fan my whole life and have heard everything before like you have, but this time they have made changes. They identified coaches with certain philosophies and went out and got them from good organizations. Only time will tell but some people instead of wearing their rose colored glasses put on their negative nelly frames and find fault where there is none. As for trusting my eyes you don't need to because I do.
    Is he going clone himself so he can PC for every arm in the system?

    I think it's great the Reds are looking to change their pitching development, again. Maybe this time they'll get it right. Johnson seems like a quality coach, but we have no idea where this leads. We haven't even gotten to a point where we have early returns on scouting and development.

    And glad to know you're here to share you solipsism with others.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Is he going clone himself so he can PC for every arm in the system?

    I think it's great the Reds are looking to change their pitching development, again. Maybe this time they'll get it right. Johnson seems like a quality coach, but we have no idea where this leads. We haven't even gotten to a point where we have early returns on scouting and development.

    And glad to know you're here to share you solipsism with others.
    You don't need to clone yourself hire like minded people. You are right we have no clue how this turns out. My whole thing is it is not talk they are implenting new philosophies. Who knows it may not work, but it seems they are at least trying different things. I am optimistic for the first time in a long time.
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    "Gully can fix 'em"

    "Dick Pole was the guy who groomed Greg Maddux..."

    "Bryan Price was a pitching guru who will finally change things"



    I think the impact of individual hitting and pitching coaches is way over-rated on this board. It's especially over-rated on guys as far along as the guys within a year or two of the big leagues. It starts with the raw material. Even if this group is the answer, it will probably take several years for that to filter to the big league rotation. If these guys can turn one guy around in their entire tenure, it would be a noteworthy success. I think people are desperate for hope and seeing what they want to see. I get it. I'll believe it when I see it. Until then, they need to go get somebody who is more than a cast-off that a play-off team isn't willing to give the ball to.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  10. #502
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    "Gully can fix 'em"

    "Dick Pole was the guy who groomed Greg Maddux..."

    "Bryan Price was a pitching guru who will finally change things"



    I think the impact of individual hitting and pitching coaches is way over-rated on this board. It's especially over-rated on guys as far along as the guys within a year or two of the big leagues. It starts with the raw material. Even if this group is the answer, it will probably take several years for that to filter to the big league rotation. If these guys can turn one guy around in their entire tenure, it would be a noteworthy success. I think people are desperate for hope and seeing what they want to see. I get it. I'll believe it when I see it. Until then, they need to go get somebody who is more than a cast-off that a play-off team isn't willing to give the ball to.
    Price did regularly produce good pitching staffs when he was just a pitching coach though, that didn’t really stop happening until he became manager either.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Sheed View Post
    When it comes to crow, I'd like nothing more than to eat Dick's all season long and into the postseason.

  11. #503
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Price did regularly produce good pitching staffs when he was just a pitching coach though, that didn’t really stop happening until he became manager either.
    He had Cueto, Arroyo, Leake and Latos ready made for him. Maybe he had a hand in turning Homer Bailey around, but Homer was the top pitching prospect in the game at one time, so him becoming a solid mid-rotation starter doesn't seem a work of magic or anything. Funny how he become successful once the Reds dealt for Latos. That's the kinds of acquisition I'm advocating now.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  13. #504
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    He had Cueto, Arroyo, Leake and Latos ready made for him. Maybe he had a hand in turning Homer Bailey around, but Homer was the top pitching prospect in the game at one time, so him becoming a solid mid-rotation starter doesn't seem a work of magic or anything. Funny how he become successful once the Reds dealt for Latos. That's the kinds of acquisition I'm advocating now.
    Cueto turned the corner under Price. He was pretty average his first few years. Homer was a failed top pitching prospect, the most common kind, before Price got a hold of him. And we don’t know about Leake, as Price was his first pitching coach, but he did well under him.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Well the reds are way behind the curve. Being around the Ray's now makes it more apparent. It is really hard to describe. You can see the reds are trying to be cutting edge but it pales in comparison to the real thing. As a reds fan it really frustrates me to see how far we are behind

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  17. #506
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    He had Cueto, Arroyo, Leake and Latos ready made for him. Maybe he had a hand in turning Homer Bailey around, but Homer was the top pitching prospect in the game at one time, so him becoming a solid mid-rotation starter doesn't seem a work of magic or anything. Funny how he become successful once the Reds dealt for Latos. That's the kinds of acquisition I'm advocating now.
    Cueto was hardly “ready made”, he couldn’t get his ERA out of the mid 4’s until Price showed up. And he absolutely does get credit for turning around Homer Bailey, and developing Leake and guys like Chapman from promising prospects to good major leaguers. If all it took was a guy being a top prospect, then the Reds rotation would’ve already been set the last couple years. So yeah I definitely give a lot of credit to Price.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Sheed View Post
    When it comes to crow, I'd like nothing more than to eat Dick's all season long and into the postseason.

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  19. #507
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Cueto was hardly “ready made”, he couldn’t get his ERA out of the mid 4’s until Price showed up. And he absolutely does get credit for turning around Homer Bailey, and developing Leake and guys like Chapman from promising prospects to good major leaguers. If all it took was a guy being a top prospect, then the Reds rotation would’ve already been set the last couple years. So yeah I definitely give a lot of credit to Price.
    Cueto was a top prospect and pretty much the world thought he was on his way to becoming the solid number 2 caliber starter he became.

    So even if I buy that narrative being proposed here, we're saying that Price's influence was what made Cueto, Homer and Leake successful and now getting rid of his influence is what will make the guys who've been failing the past several years successful. Again, seeing what we want to see here IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  21. #508
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Cueto was a top prospect and pretty much the world thought he was on his way to becoming the solid number 2 caliber starter he became.

    So even if I buy that narrative being proposed here, we're saying that Price's influence was what made Cueto, Homer and Leake successful and now getting rid of his influence is what will make the guys who've been failing the past several years successful. Again, seeing what we want to see here IMO.
    The narrative is that Price was a successful pitching coach, but a lousy manager. Remember, when he became manager, he stopped being the pitching coach. Two very different jobs, two very separate responsibilities.

    Johnson isn’t replacing Price as pitching coach, he’s replacing the string of pitching coaches that worked under Price.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini

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  23. #509
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The narrative is that Price was a successful pitching coach, but a lousy manager. Remember, when he became manager, he stopped being the pitching coach. Two very different jobs, two very separate responsibilities.

    Johnson isn’t replacing Price as pitching coach, he’s replacing the string of pitching coaches that worked under Price.
    Yeah. As soon as Price became the manager he had less influence over how pitchers were developed? Sure. Still seeing what we want to see here.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

    Based on the original title and subsequent path of this thread, I guess Senzel is going to start pitching now?

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