Nick Senzel Expectation & Prediction Thread

[RustyJ]

Why start his clock like that? He played 44 games last year, a month or so in AAA to prove health isn't going to ruin this kid's career.

Then be honest and call it finagling for service time. It’s definitely not for the team’s or Senzel’s benefit.

[TRF]

Then be honest and call it finagling for service time. It’s definitely not for the team’s or Senzel’s benefit.

I've been honest, as I think the Reds absolutely want to limit his service time. A simple search would tell you that.

But it's naive to think that Senzel doesn't have to show he's healthy and completely recovered from the vertigo and the injury (thumb i think?) and subsequent surgery. And since that is likely the case, name a single GM that would start his clock on March 27.

Go ahead, I'll wait.

It makes no sense from a development standpoint. He's played 44 games with a very long layoff above AA.

It makes no sense from a health standpoint, as NO ONE KNOWS how he'll adjust to playing everyday until he does. And, he hasn't done that. Did he even play in the AFL? Because the last game I see for him is June 22, 2018.

It makes no sense from a monetary standpoint. If you start him from day one and a week or two in, the vertigo resurfaces, or, maybe he just doesn't hit, then what? you option him, shuffle your roster and lose the one advantage you had.

People complaining that the Reds are foolish for making this kid prove he's ready boggle my mind. Maybe he's Joey Votto at the plate. Won't do him or the Reds any good if he's not healthy.

[NeilHamburger]

.300/.380.470 with 20 SBs and GG defense in CF

[TRF]

If Senzel doesn’t see the majors no matter what their record is, something went very VERY wrong.

If he's in the minors on May 1, and the Reds have 20 wins, he's not getting the call at that point. If he's in the minors on June 1 and the Reds have 40 wins and are healthy in the OF and 2B, he's not getting the call unless CF is a complete dumpster fire. If he's in the minors on July 1 and the Reds have 60 wins and are healthy in the OF and 2B, he's not getting the call unless CF is a complete dumpster fire.

etc. etc. etc. Record, health and performance play into it.

[WrongVerb]

This service time issue is why we need to base eligibility for arbitration (or my suggested replacement: restricted free agency) on some formula that focuses on age rather than service time.

[Chip R]

Only way he goes back down is struggling at the plate. He's not getting sent down for defense.

That's what I meant.

[Kinsm]

I've been honest, as I think the Reds absolutely want to limit his service time. A simple search would tell you that.

But it's naive to think that Senzel doesn't have to show he's healthy and completely recovered from the vertigo and the injury (thumb i think?) and subsequent surgery. And since that is likely the case, name a single GM that would start his clock on March 27.

Go ahead, I'll wait.

It makes no sense from a development standpoint. He's played 44 games with a very long layoff above AA.

It makes no sense from a health standpoint, as NO ONE KNOWS how he'll adjust to playing everyday until he does. And, he hasn't done that. Did he even play in the AFL? Because the last game I see for him is June 22, 2018.

It makes no sense from a monetary standpoint. If you start him from day one and a week or two in, the vertigo resurfaces, or, maybe he just doesn't hit, then what? you option him, shuffle your roster and lose the one advantage you had.

People complaining that the Reds are foolish for making this kid prove he's ready boggle my mind. Maybe he's Joey Votto at the plate. Won't do him or the Reds any good if he's not healthy.

I want the kid to prove he can play CF, and a dozen games in ST isn't going to do that for me - which is all the justification the Reds need to send him to AAA.

[HammerTime]

If Senzel doesn’t see the majors no matter what their record is, something went very VERY wrong.

I don't want to live in a world where Nick Senzel doesn't play in the bigs this year.

[TRF]

I don't want to live in a world where Nick Senzel doesn't play in the bigs this year.

I want to live in a world where the Reds win the WS without him this year.

[Wonderful Monds]

I want to live in a world where the Reds win the WS without him this year.

wut

[RustyJ]

This service time issue is why we need to base eligibility for arbitration (or my suggested replacement: restricted free agency) on some formula that focuses on age rather than service time.

It might only affect the hyper-obsessed minority, but I'd love to see MLB remove some of the valid reasons to root against your team. Hoping Senzel doesn't make the team and cheering for blown saves in late September is real weird.

[Tribe Guy]

This service time issue is why we need to base eligibility for arbitration (or my suggested replacement: restricted free agency) on some formula that focuses on age rather than service time.

The negotiations will be tricky as the smaller market teams like the Indians and Reds need those early years of control to survive against the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox and other larger markets. If free agency comes sooner, then the little guy gets hurt. It is hard enough now for the small and mid market teams to compete. They have much less margin of error. That is one of the reasons that the Indians considered trading a pitcher to try to get assets to help now and also in the future. I am afraid that if those years of control is cut, there will be teams that eventually go out of business as fan interest will die off with no chance to contend. Look how much excitement there is in Cincy with some activity happening. I realize that some fine tuning needs to be done to arbitration, but any cuts to the number of years will slowly choke the life out of the small market teams.

[WrongVerb]

The negotiations will be tricky as the smaller market teams like the Indians and Reds need those early years of control to survive against the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox and other larger markets. If free agency comes sooner, then the little guy gets hurt. It is hard enough now for the small and mid market teams to compete. They have much less margin of error. That is one of the reasons that the Indians considered trading a pitcher to try to get assets to help now and also in the future. I am afraid that if those years of control is cut, there will be teams that eventually go out of business as fan interest will die off with no chance to contend. Look how much excitement there is in Cincy with some activity happening. I realize that some fine tuning needs to be done to arbitration, but any cuts to the number of years will slowly choke the life out of the small market teams.

Oh, full free agency should still come after 6 sessions of major league service time. And small markets aren't as poor as they claim.

[Tribe Guy]

Oh, full free agency should still come after 6 sessions of major league service time. And small markets aren't as poor as they claim.

The big market teams have many more people to draw from. They also make much more money on their TV contracts. It is not a level playing field.

[Kc61]

I expect Senzel to play at AAA for longer than the obligatory couple of weeks. He’s missed a considerable amount of time, he was injured, he’s learning a new position, it all cries out for a period of time to get ready before joining the bigs.

It’s hard to predict exactly how long, it’ll depend on how he does and if he’s fully healthy. But the Reds will take their time, he’s a valuable prospect and they’ll want to make sure he’s ready.

This same discussion takes place most off-seasons when fans assume injured players will immediately be ready. Unfortunately, it doesn’t always happen - particularly for those who’ve had a long layoff.