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Thread: Disco is the 5th starter

  1. #31
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Disco is the 5th starter

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Naming DeSclafani the fifth starter is the right move, but it's probably not the lasting move.

    I'm happy the Reds have some depth beyond the five starters already named.

    Some combination of Mahle, Romano, Reed, Stephenson, and one of Sims, Garrett, or Lorenzen has been the major league rotation previously.

    Now, they're 6 - 12 on the pecking order.
    Good point. All we're being told is he's getting first crack at the #5 job. Doesn't mean he keeps it all season no matter what.

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    I am not sure why people think disco is the 5th starter in that group. I think he is 3rd best of the group. He is better than roark and gray. Health is really the only issue. The main reason is that he has succeeded in gabp and vs nl central.
    My mileage varies from yours. I've got him at #7.
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  4. #32
    Pastor, dad and husband Mr Larkin's Avatar
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    Re: Disco is the 5th starter

    If Disco remains healthy, he has the talent to be in the rotation. He was major league ready when traded for.

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  6. #33
    Be the ball Roy Tucker's Avatar
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    Re: Disco is the 5th starter

    This is how normal teams set up their rotations. Have a solid core and blend in the new guys at a sane pace.

    Not the plate-of-spaghetti-against-the-wall approach of the last few seasons.
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  8. #34
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    Re: Disco is the 5th starter

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    This is how normal teams set up their rotations. Have a solid core and blend in the new guys at a sane pace.

    Not the plate-of-spaghetti-against-the-wall approach of the last few seasons.
    To be fair, injuries played a mighty role in said pasta approach.

    This team is set up for injuries as those were not.

  9. #35
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    Re: Disco is the 5th starter

    My guess is nine different people start games over the course of the year. To me, the better question is "who will be the five starters in September?"

  10. #36
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    Re: Disco is the 5th starter

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    To be fair, injuries played a mighty role in said pasta approach.

    This team is set up for injuries as those were not.
    Well also to be fair the only reason this team is better set to deal with injuries is because the front office was diligent, proactive, and aggressive in bringing in improvements and depth. There was nothing precluding them from doing this in previous years, other than the incentive to push the “trust the process!” and “gotta let the young guys take their lumps!” narratives.

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  12. #37
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    Re: Disco is the 5th starter

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Good point. All we're being told is he's getting first crack at the #5 job. Doesn't mean he keeps it all season no matter what.



    My mileage varies from yours. I've got him at #7.
    Why such the hate for Disco. His only flaw has been injury
    Coming off injury he pitched nearly as good as Castillo and Roark. He pitched better than Gray as a starter
    He had better k/rate than any of those guys.
    I know people have been disappointed in his injuries but that does not make him a worse pitcher when on the mound.

    After knocking the rust off he pitched like the guy who put up a 3.26 era in 2016
    Disco in the second half
    9.25 k/9 2.15 bb/9 4.29 k/bb 1.52 HR/9 1.30 whip 4.02 FIP 3.42 xFIP
    He was unlucky with .321 babip and 68% LOB which drove his ERA up

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  14. #38
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    Re: Disco is the 5th starter

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    Why such the hate for Disco. His only flaw has been injury
    Coming off injury he pitched nearly as good as Castillo and Roark. He pitched better than Gray as a starter
    He had better k/rate than any of those guys.
    I know people have been disappointed in his injuries but that does not make him a worse pitcher when on the mound.

    After knocking the rust off he pitched like the guy who put up a 3.26 era in 2016
    Disco in the second half
    9.25 k/9 2.15 bb/9 4.29 k/bb 1.52 HR/9 1.30 whip 4.02 FIP 3.42 xFIP
    He was unlucky with .321 babip and 68% LOB which drove his ERA up
    The bold sentence is where people are off on Disco. He partially tore the UCL in his pitching elbow. That is an injury that makes you a worse pitcher. The fact is, he hasn't really been a good pitcher since that happened. The guy people are projecting Disco as is not the guy who Disco is today. That was the guy he was before the UCL injury. He might come back, there have been some who've had his injury with his treatment who have, but until he does, judging him but what he was pre-injury is just not the way to judge him. To me it's like saying Matt Kemp should be starting in CF for the Reds because he was an MVP caliber player once upon a time while playing that position. My pecking order right now would be Wood, Castillo, Roark and 4 question marks.

    Those Disco splits don't do much for me. His first half didn't start until June and his second half was really just three good games in August. In all, Disco had 21 starts in 2018 and had five starts that I would call good. He had good games on June 23rd, July 9th and three in a row on August 4th, 10th and 17th. Other than that, he only managed 6 innings three other times and allowed 4 runs each time. As far as his good second half goes, September was his worst month of the bunch and he had bad starts with too high a frequency in both halves.

    For comparison sake, Sal Romano, who I don't even view as a valid option to make the team at this point, made 25 starts and had 8 good ones. Flashes of having it don't do it for me at this point and that's all we've seen from Disco.

    It would be wonderful for the Reds if Disco could come back and put up his 2015 form. At his salary and the dearth of pitching in the game, it would make him a pretty nice trade chit. He's a free agent after 2020 and he's not really a long term property. If the Reds think more time in AAA is the prescription for long term success for Mahle or Reed, then it's OK for Disco to get one more chance at resurrecting his career, but if the Reds found somebody else and pushed Disco out of the picture, I'd feel better about the team's chances in 2019.
    Last edited by mth123; 02-17-2019 at 06:39 AM.
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  16. #39
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    Re: Disco is the 5th starter

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post

    After knocking the rust off he pitched like the guy who put up a 3.26 era in 2016
    Disco in the second half
    9.25 k/9 2.15 bb/9 4.29 k/bb 1.52 HR/9 1.30 whip 4.02 FIP 3.42 xFIP
    He was unlucky with .321 babip and 68% LOB which drove his ERA up
    Agree with mth on this, these numbers don’t withstand scrutiny. They were boosted by a few excellent outings, so Disco gets credit for those.

    But his HR rate of 1.88 was the second worst of all NL pitchers over 100 innings. Only NL guy worse in that department was Homer Bailey.

    As for his finish to the season, I watched Disco carefully in late August and September. Take a look at the game logs for those final 8 outings. With one modest exception, they were all brief, or ineffectual, or both. His ERA went from 4.12 to 4.93 in that period.

    He did show flashes in those games but obviously could not stand up to starters’ innings.

    I hope he’s healthier and back to the old Disco this season, no problem giving him the first shot at 5th starter. But he did not finish strong and he was not the old Disco last year, except a few times.
    Last edited by Kc61; 02-17-2019 at 02:14 PM.

  17. #40
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    Re: Disco is the 5th starter

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Agree with mth on this, these numbers don’t withstand scrutiny. They were boosted by a few excellent outings, so Disco gets credit for those.

    But his HR rate of 1.88 was the second worst of all NL pitchers over 100 innings. Only NL guy worse in that department was Homer Bailey.

    As for his finish to the season, I watched Disco carefully in late August and September. Take a look at the game logs for those final 8 outings. With one modest exception, they were all brief, or ineffectual, or both. His ERA went from 4.12 to 4.93 in that period.

    He did show flashes in those games but obviously could not stand up to starters’ innings.

    I hope he’s healthier and back to the old Disco this season, no problem giving him the first shot at 5th starter. But he did not finish strong and he was not the old Disco last year, except a few times.
    He pitched exactly like I expected him to pitch after 1 and half years on the shelf. It was basically the same as a starter after TJS. I know what a pitcher that is toast looks like or was not ready. I saw that Bailey was toast going into last year. I also saw that Stephenson was not ready.

    9.25 K rate and 2.15 bb rate and what saw wuth my own eyes tells me Disco will be ready ad pitch really well . You expect inconsistent starts after being off that long.

    I was also bullish on Peraza last year when everyone was writing him off at this time last year.

    I have way more worries about Wood/Gray and Roark pitching effectively. Castillo I see pitching well but not TOR level. Castillo went through his first half troubles last year after pitching too many innings the year before as I expected. He should be more consistent this year but he still has issues pitching out of the stretch that will keep him from being TOR starter
    Last edited by InsaneinthBrame; 02-17-2019 at 10:45 PM.

  18. #41
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    Re: Disco is the 5th starter

    If Disco proves healthy enough during ST, he absolutely should be our 5th starter.

    It wasn’t that long ago he was our best starter, and a good one at that.


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  20. #42
    Member RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Disco is the 5th starter

    Disco's high ERA last year was essentially entirely a problem of HRs, as reflected in his 19.8% HR/FB. The question is whether that will revert to the mean (~12-13%) or not. And the answer to that question has to do with the degree to which the HR/FB rate was driven by bad pitching, bad luck, GABP, or something else. If it was merely bad luck, regression is highly likely. If it was bad pitching (his curveball was a disaster last year), it's an open question whether he gets it back.

    One of my big concerns is that the Reds HR problems are a function of something beyond the pitchers and the park -- poor game calling, tipping, etc. Across MLB, among players with 100 IP, Reds pitchers were 2nd (Disco), 3rd (Bailey), 4th (Mahle), 7th (Castillo), and 38th (Romano) worst in HR/FB. GABP doesn't help, but it doesn't hurt THAT much. At the team level, the Reds 15.8% was 1.4% higher than the #2 Orioles (14.4%). The Orioles were almost as close to the Reds as they were to MLB average. The Reds were more than a full standard deviation higher than the next team. That's pretty nuts.

    I hope Disco figure out the HR issues in 2019. But I suspect that his HR issues were not just a function of how good of a pitcher he is now, especially considering his otherwise solid peripherals.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  22. #43
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Disco is the 5th starter

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    Why such the hate for Disco. His only flaw has been injury
    Coming off injury he pitched nearly as good as Castillo and Roark. He pitched better than Gray as a starter
    He had better k/rate than any of those guys.
    I know people have been disappointed in his injuries but that does not make him a worse pitcher when on the mound.

    After knocking the rust off he pitched like the guy who put up a 3.26 era in 2016
    Disco in the second half
    9.25 k/9 2.15 bb/9 4.29 k/bb 1.52 HR/9 1.30 whip 4.02 FIP 3.42 xFIP
    He was unlucky with .321 babip and 68% LOB which drove his ERA up
    I like other guys better and I don't think he ever looked good last season. He's getting his shot regardless. I just think he'll need to be legit good to keep his slot for the whole season.

    I'd also bet the over for how time he'll lose to injury, but that's not performance (at least not directly).
    I'm not a system player. I am a system.


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