Kinsm's 2019 Cincinnati Reds Roster Syllabus

[RED VAN HOT]

Players aren't paid for previous performance. Their wages are determined by the free market, and that's likely what he'd get on a one-year deal as a free agent because teams understand there is more to predicting future performance than a single previous season. Do you have an issue with free markets determining the value of the players?

$18M seems high to me also. For Bauer, I see one year out of five with an ERA under 4. Keuchel had 4 out of 6 under 4 with 3 under 3 and he didn't get his money in free agency. Granted, Bauer is younger and throws harder, but a replication of his one good year is no certainty. It would make an interesting arbitration case. I suspect the figures will be further apart than typical.

As an aside, I have no idea how the Reds feel about him. His stuff is good, but does DJ believe he can work with him? Bauer looked to me as if he would get ahead of hitters and then experiment with secondary pitches. It made for high pitch counts and walks. I've heard that he has a multitude of different pitches. I wish he would concentrate on his best three, but it is not clear he thinks that way.

[mth123]

I think $18 Million is too high for Bauer also, but in arbitration, I think that's exactly what he'll get. Personally, I'd deal him for three players. A stopgap bat at one of their positions of need, a young player who can be a top prospect and an interesting arm for the bullpen. He just netted 5 guys. I think he'd get at least that.

Then I'd use the money to sign somebody like Roark and another bullpen arm.

[Sea Ray]

Players aren't paid for previous performance. Their wages are determined by the free market, and that's likely what he'd get on a one-year deal as a free agent because teams understand there is more to predicting future performance than a single previous season. Do you have an issue with free markets determining the value of the players?

I have an issue with your saying that arbitration determines one's free market value. It doesn't. That's why players are non tendered. You think an arbitrator would award an amount to Kevin Gausman that reflects his value on the open market? How 'bout Billy Hamilton last year? No way.

[*BaseClogger*]

I have an issue with your saying that arbitration determines one's free market value. It doesn't. That's why players are non tendered. You think an arbitrator would award an amount to Kevin Gausman that reflects his value on the open market? How 'bout Billy Hamilton last year? No way.

The free market valuation can be different than how the controlling team values the player. There is also a clause in the collective bargaining agreement that states players can't take more than an X-percentage pay cut via arbitration. Those two factors are the primary reasons players get non-tendered. I agree with your point about Billy Hamilton. However, I really do think approx $18M is what Bauer could get for one year on the open market...

[*BaseClogger*]

$18M seems high to me also. For Bauer, I see one year out of five with an ERA under 4. Keuchel had 4 out of 6 under 4 with 3 under 3 and he didn't get his money in free agency. Granted, Bauer is younger and throws harder, but a replication of his one good year is no certainty. It would make an interesting arbitration case. I suspect the figures will be further apart than typical.

Keuchel got $13M to pitch 2/3 of the season, so you're actually making my case for me. It looks like the projection systems are going to have Bauer at around a 3.80 FIP talent level heading into 2020, and that's about how they viewed Keuchel going into 2019...

[Sea Ray]

The free market valuation can be different than how the controlling team values the player. There is also a clause in the collective bargaining agreement that states players can't take more than an X-percentage pay cut via arbitration. Those two factors are the primary reasons players get non-tendered. I agree with your point about Billy Hamilton. However, I really do think approx $18M is what Bauer could get for one year on the open market...

Now you admit due to some of the quirks of the arbitration system that it really doesn't pay free market value. OK. We agree on that. To be fair I can't rule out some team paying him $18mill on the open market. All it takes is one but let's stick to arbitration. You claim that it generally awards money that'd be paid on the FA market. OK. Last yr the arbitrator awarded him $13mill. He has a much worse yr in 2019. Why would an arbitrator think his value is greatly increased this yr?

[*BaseClogger*]

Now you admit due to some of the quirks of the arbitration system that it really doesn't pay free market value. OK. We agree on that. To be fair I can't rule out some team paying him $18mill on the open market. All it takes is one but let's stick to arbitration. You claim that it generally awards money that'd be paid on the FA market. OK. Last yr the arbitrator awarded him $13mill. He has a much worse yr in 2019. Why would an arbitrator think his value is greatly increased this yr?

I do, but neither of those factors are in play with Bauer.

I'm not sure how it is exactly worded in the collective bargaining agreement, but I believe the rule of thumb for arbitration is year 1 - 60% of FA value, year 2 - 80% of FA value, year 3 - 100% of FA value...

[RED VAN HOT]

Keuchel got $13M to pitch 2/3 of the season, so you're actually making my case for me. It looks like the projection systems are going to have Bauer at around a 3.80 FIP talent level heading into 2020, and that's about how they viewed Keuchel going into 2019...

I stayed away from the 2/3 season because we know that draft compensation was the reason he wasn't signed for a full season. I was attempting to make a comparison based on past performance. It was not a good choice for comparison because draft compensation and length of contract desired were in play as well. I think it is highly likely that Keuchel's one year only value, with no draft compensation involved would have exceeded $18M. Then again, I think his performance was more predictable.

When I said $18M was a little high, I was thinking in the $15-$16M range. If an arbitrator bases his decision on projections and the amount that some team is likely to pay on a one year deal, with no draft compensation involved, you may well be right. It's a slam dunk that the Yankees would. On the other hand, I find it hard to believe an arbitrator would ignore recent performance and somewhat unpredictable behavior. Consistency should count for something. If it does go to arbitration because a compromise can't be reached, I'd rather advance the team side of the argument than the player side.

[JaxRed]

Previously, we (I) would move discussion about Kinsm's data to another thread so the data could stand alone..... (hint).

[Sea Ray]

Previously, we (I) would move discussion about Kinsm's data to another thread so the data could stand alone..... (hint).

Great. What thread did you move it to?

[REDREAD]

Now you admit due to some of the quirks of the arbitration system that it really doesn't pay free market value. OK. We agree on that. To be fair I can't rule out some team paying him $18mill on the open market. All it takes is one but let's stick to arbitration. You claim that it generally awards money that'd be paid on the FA market. OK. Last yr the arbitrator awarded him $13mill. He has a much worse yr in 2019. Why would an arbitrator think his value is greatly increased this yr?

I am not saying it is logical, but there is a wrinkle in arbitration.
Someone correct me if I am wrong.
When you are in your last year of arbitration (like Bauer is), your "peer group" to compare against is free agents and other final year arb guys.
The first year arb guys are compared against other first year arb guys (and guys with similar amount of service time).

I am not saying that this is a good system, but it explains partially why a guy can have a down year and yet still get a huge raise.
We could make the argument that after 2018, his market value was more than 13 million..
The owners and players have set up a system that rewards service time.. whether that is good or bad is debatable, but that's how it works out.

[757690]

Not sure where to put this, so I guess this is as good a spot as any.

From C Trent:

#Reds claim off waivers from Marlins LHP Josh D. Smith, DFA C Juan Graterol

29 year old lefty with not much MLB success. I guess they see something in him with a 40 man roster spot, for now at least.

[JaxRed]

Grateral cleared and was outrighted to AAA. Kinsm, is he eligible to be minor league FA?

[camisadelgolf]

Grateral cleared and was outrighted to AAA. Kinsm, is he eligible to be minor league FA?

Yes. Because he has been outrighted before, it is his decision on whether he becomes a free agent or not.

[Kinsm]

Grateral cleared and was outrighted to AAA. Kinsm, is he eligible to be minor league FA?

He has the right to enter FA due to the outright assignment but it doesn’t matter because he’s an automatic six-year minor league free agent five days after the World Series ends.