Reds Offense - Bad Luck?

[Old school 1983]

Our team BAIP is so low because we have a bunch of guys pulling balls right into a shift. The only two players that have a decent ops out of the 10 who get regular playing time are Suarez and Dietrich. Jose Iglesias should be the everyday SS, and Peraza should fill in for Dietrich vs lefties and in late inning spots where we have a lead. Votto isn't drawing the amount of walks he used to because pitchers have nothing to fear with him not driving the ball out of the park. Puig isn't a 3 or 4 hitter he can't handle the pressure. Kemp is a waste of a roster spot. Casali should get more playing time. His catcher era is 2.63, and he's ops'ing over .800 as a Red.

This is a slow team(2 SB in 5 attempts) that isn't that great at the fundamentals and relies on HR for most of it's runs.

Agree 100% on Casali. Plus playing him more could free up Tucker for a trade to help issues elsewhere.

[OhioRiverBarge]

Our team BAIP is so low because we have a bunch of guys pulling balls right into a shift. The only two players that have a decent ops out of the 10 who get regular playing time are Suarez and Dietrich. Jose Iglesias should be the everyday SS, and Peraza should fill in for Dietrich vs lefties and in late inning spots where we have a lead. Votto isn't drawing the amount of walks he used to because pitchers have nothing to fear with him not driving the ball out of the park. Puig isn't a 3 or 4 hitter he can't handle the pressure. Kemp is a waste of a roster spot. Casali should get more playing time. His catcher era is 2.63, and he's ops'ing over .800 as a Red.

This is a slow team(2 SB in 5 attempts) that isn't that great at the fundamentals and relies on HR for most of it's runs.

This is an interesting variable, but without looking it up, I think we can assume the shift is ubiquitous at this point and generally effects all teams along the same margin.

But something could be said if a team collectively had more pull hitters, then the shift would be a detriment more to that team.

With that said, klw’s point about last year’s team having such a high BABIP makes me wonder if this year is an outlier or if last year was an outlier. This is certainly one of the difficulties of looking at BABIP by team. There are enough offseason changes to create more variables. It’s not like an individual player who should produce at the roughly the same BABIP from year to year. It’s difficult to find a base.

It’s very possible this team just has weaker contact or less of a LD%.

But even at that, we should expect at least some trend toward the mean. .247 is just ghastly.

[OhioRiverBarge]

Just from watching every game and not looking at stats, I can say with confidence that Winker, Puig, and Suarez have been unlucky. I’m more confident of the first two than the last. But even if just those two are unlucky right now, add Scooter’s injury and that’s a huge chunk of the offense we were expecting to produce.

Knowing Scooter would be out, I think we all would have said that if Puig and Winker are both hitting under .200 15 games in, the offense would be struggling.


Edit::
Just looked it up and Geno is actually right around his normal BABIP, maybe a few points shy.

But Winker and Puig are horrid. Winker is at .156 and Puig is at .200.

[UPRedsFan]

Just from watching every game and not looking at stats, I can say with confidence that Winker, Puig, and Suarez have been unlucky. I’m more confident of the first two than the last. But even if just those two are unlucky right now, add Scooter’s injury and that’s a huge chunk of the offense we were expecting to produce.

Knowing Scooter would be out, I think we all would have said that if Puig and Winker are both hitting under .200 15 games in, the offense would be struggling.


Edit::
Just looked it up and Geno is actually right around his normal BABIP, maybe a few points shy.

But Winker and Puig are horrid. Winker is at .156 and Puig is at .200.

Absolutely unlucky. As you said Winker and Puig are the best examples. I recall numerous line drive outs from their bats. It will turn around. Peraza will get hot and so will Votto.

[Kc61]

Low BABIP is not synonymous with bad luck. Bad luck can be a factor, but each situation is different.

If a hitter is uppercutting and popping the ball up, his BABIP will usually decline.
If a hitter is swinging at bad pitches and making weak contact, his BABIP will probably decline.
If a hitter is pulling everything into a shift, his BABIP will probably decline.
If a hitter isn’t hitting line drives his BABIP may decline.

In the Reds’ case, I don’t deny there is some bad luck involved. I think the hitters’ lack of patience is also involved.

[OhioRiverBarge]

And baseball gods produce at least some explanation. Or at least Eno Sarris does.

How Bryce Harper and Yasiel Puig are Pressing and Why it Might Be Ok Eventually

Check the top two swing% rates in baseball: Peraza and Puig

The explanation he gives for Puig (Harper, and others) is psychological: they’re on new teams and want to impress.

That may or may not be true, but if it is, it might explain Peraza, as well; not because he’s on a new team, but because he finds himself competing again for playing time with Dietrich.

Anyway, interesting read.

[Shoeless Jeff]

Looking back at the last five years for the NL only, the worst BABIP for a team for an entire year is 0.277 and there have only been a couple of teams worse than 0.283. That indicates that the Reds number should go up a lot to counteract where they are now. With increased shifts, the numbers may go down a little but they shouldn't fall off the cliff as the shifts have been around for a while now.

[InsaneinthBrame]

I did this before Yesterday's game
League babip is .291
Factor leading to the Reds being below this is
Their LD% is 19.5% League average is 20.8%
They are also hitting the ball softly 20.5% of the time (league average is 17.5%)
They are a slow team GB babip is .191 (league average is .234)

I am sure there is some bad luck. They are a slow team that is not hitting the ball squarely (low amount of line drives and a lot of soft contact)