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Thread: Looking ahead

  1. #1
    Member corkedbat's Avatar
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    Looking ahead

    The salaries of Scooter, Puig, Kemp, Wood, Roark, Hernandez, Hughes, (J) Iglesias, Dietrich, Duke and what remains of Bailey's deal come off the books at the end of the season. Provided the front office intends to re-invest the money into the roster, how would you allocate it.

    Options. I'd pick up Hughes' option.

    Extend. (Provided they make the end of the season) I'd consider Hernandez, Dietrich & Iglesias & possibly Roark (all price dependent), Puig - I'd try, but don't see it. Wood - maybe a year to raise his value. Kemp - No. Duke - Hell No! Scooter - maybe (if he 1st tries the market and learns his true value)

    Extending young'uns. I'd make a run at Castillo, Winker, possibly Garrett and maybe even Mahler if he finishes strong.

    Outside FA's/Trades. Not sure who will be available, but an Ace would definitely be a #1 priority. Maybe an OF, but Winker has one spot, we'll see about Senzel (not convinced they won't shift him back to 2B) and I'm hoping at least one of Trammell, Siri, Ervin, Friedl or even Aquino can challenge for at least a 4/5 slot. Possibly another starter. Always looking for solid relief help (especially a lefty). A SS of opportunity if an all-round guy can be found.

    Left over cash. International Free Agency & anything significant to bolster the player development system.
    Last edited by corkedbat; 04-20-2019 at 06:51 PM.

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    Member adkindo's Avatar
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    Re: Looking ahead

    Not a lot in the FA market for position players.

    -- If we do not extend Puig, Nicholas Castellanos plays RF and will be a FA.
    -- Starting Pitchers that will be looking for big money includes Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler & Madison Bumgarner.
    -- Cole Hamels will be 36, so not sure what his $ will be.
    -- Hyun-Jin Ryu should be a tier down.
    -- Dellin Betances would be a nice add to the bullpen.
    -- I doubt Jake Arrieta will opt out of his $20 Million option

  5. #3
    Member adkindo's Avatar
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    Re: Looking ahead

    -- If Senzel looks like he can be an above average CF'er, and Scooters bat looks good when he returns, I would definitely explore extending Scooter for 3-4 years....only if he is reasonable about his market value. Senzel playing CF is much more valuable for the team than 2nd base. After this past summer, I would hope Scooter noticed 2nd Basemen did not have a "players market". There is simply not much talent on the market, and his bat is valuable in our lineup.

    -- I am definitely trying to extend Castillo, Winker, Garrett and Mahle. If Peraza's bat comes back around this season, I would add him to the list.

    -- I would be very hesitant to do anything with Wood, unless he shows up and pitches great with no sign of a reoccurring injury. I just do not like the back and pitcher thing at all. If Roark has a strong season, I would have no issue resigning him on a reasonable deal for a couple years.

    -- I would not overpay Puig, and I think someone may do that.

    -- Bring back Casali.

    -- Would like to keep Dietrich and Iglesias on our bench.

    -- Doubt we will, but I am all for going after a Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler or Madison Bumgarner to slide into that #2 slot in the rotation.

    -- Explore a trade to add a bat in the OF.

    It seems like there is a strong trend of extending players before they get to FA....so there may be less talent in the coming years via FA. I think we need to be smart, but when the option appears to present value, we have to keep our own young talent.
    Last edited by adkindo; 04-21-2019 at 01:19 AM.

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    Re: Looking ahead

    Dietrich will still be arbitration eligible and under control for one more year. Bringing him back seems like a no brainer if he keeps hitting.

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  9. #5
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Looking ahead

    A lot depends on what happens at the deadline. If the Reds deal off a bunch of guys and acquire a kid or two who will fit right in, they may not want to bring any of them back. Hughes option and Dietrich under control should be back, the rest is a wait and see thing. Of course, the Reds may keep them all to the end of the season if they are contending. If the pitching stays competitive, the Reds will contend and they will be buying.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Member wlf WV's Avatar
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    Re: Looking ahead

    I like Dietrich , but I don’t overpay for sentimental antidotes. I think he will play for the Reds cheaper than other teams?

    I understand the trend to lock up young talent, it seems better to diversify your investment, rather than invest 100’s of millions on one player. Especially the smaller market teams.
    May the Lord bless

  12. #7
    Pitcairn Islander Red Buckeye's Avatar
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    Re: Looking ahead

    If Dietrich is arbitration eligible, and he is, just keep him one more year and reevaluate after 2020.
    There are no hunting accidents...It's called kharma.

  13. #8
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Looking ahead

    What I think can probably be penciled in for 2020:

    Winker, Trammell, Senzel Left to Right in the OF.

    Votto, Peraza, and Suarez first, second third in the IF.

    Barnahart and Casali catching.

    Dietrich, Ervin and maybe IF dujour (Van Meter, Colon, Blandino, Farmer). Want to acquire: 4th OF who can play CF. Maybe that's Schebler. Starting SS. I hope they target Didi, but maybe they get a near ready kid in deadline deals if they sell.

    The rotation would be Castillo, Gray and Mahle. I'd go after a big fish. Bumgarner, Cole, etc. 5th Starter would be a competition between Sims, Vlad and Santillan at some point. Disco is a wild card, but he'll be in his last year, so I'd be selling him at the deadline if the Reds are out of it and he has a decent season.

    Bullpen would be Iglesias, with Hughes back, Garrett, hopefully Stephenson and Peralta. If somebody will give something useful for Lorenzen, I'd deal him. I'd go after a late inning type or maybe a traditional closer with Iglesias becoming more of the true fireman. I still like Will Smith, but if Garrett steps up, a RH might be better.

    Focus all that freed up cash on 3 things. SS who can field and hit. Top Starter. Late inning reliever. Supplement with a cheap 4th OF type and maybe another bullpen piece, but probably not necessary if they get the late inning guy.

    Guys to deal to get what they need: Any of the FA, Kemp, Puig, Scooter, Roark, Wood, Hernandez. Guys getting closer to walking: Disco, Schebler, Lorenzen. Prospects/minor leaguers who don't fit: Reed, Romano, Mella, Aquino, Fairchild, Moss, et. If India or Greene brings back a SS of the future or a #2 starter, then deal them.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

  14. #9
    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Re: Looking ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    What I think can probably be penciled in for 2020:

    Winker, Trammell, Senzel Left to Right in the OF.

    Votto, Peraza, and Suarez first, second third in the IF.

    Barnahart and Casali catching.

    Dietrich, Ervin and maybe IF dujour (Van Meter, Colon, Blandino, Farmer). Want to acquire: 4th OF who can play CF. Maybe that's Schebler. Starting SS. I hope they target Didi, but maybe they get a near ready kid in deadline deals if they sell.

    The rotation would be Castillo, Gray and Mahle. I'd go after a big fish. Bumgarner, Cole, etc. 5th Starter would be a competition between Sims, Vlad and Santillan at some point. Disco is a wild card, but he'll be in his last year, so I'd be selling him at the deadline if the Reds are out of it and he has a decent season.

    Bullpen would be Iglesias, with Hughes back, Garrett, hopefully Stephenson and Peralta. If somebody will give something useful for Lorenzen, I'd deal him. I'd go after a late inning type or maybe a traditional closer with Iglesias becoming more of the true fireman. I still like Will Smith, but if Garrett steps up, a RH might be better.

    Focus all that freed up cash on 3 things. SS who can field and hit. Top Starter. Late inning reliever. Supplement with a cheap 4th OF type and maybe another bullpen piece, but probably not necessary if they get the late inning guy.

    Guys to deal to get what they need: Any of the FA, Kemp, Puig, Scooter, Roark, Wood, Hernandez. Guys getting closer to walking: Disco, Schebler, Lorenzen. Prospects/minor leaguers who don't fit: Reed, Romano, Mella, Aquino, Fairchild, Moss, et. If India or Greene brings back a SS of the future or a #2 starter, then deal them.
    I'm on board here at about 90%!!! Good post. Here's a few of mine added in.

    Starters- I'd Re-sign ROARK, and look to sell Disco at the deadline to restock CF/SS in the upper minors. (Castillo, Gray, FA, Roark, Mahle in 2020)

    Outfield- I'd give Trammell more time in AAA, but I'd go after Castallanos(DET) or re-sign Puig ( Winker, Senzel, FA, Schebler, Ervin)

    Infield- I'd try to upgrade 2nd base with whoever is left out in FA, seems like a place to bargain shop with so many available.

    Relief- I agree with selling Hernandez, maybe package with DIsco/Wood. I'd keep Lorenzen though.

    Added free agents- we need RF, #2 starter, 2nd baseman, backup CF. payroll doesn't vary much here!

  15. #10
    Backup First Baseman OGB's Avatar
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    Re: Looking ahead

    Allow me to nip something in the bud here.
    The only way a Desclafani deadline deal nets you anything more than minor league detritus is if he returns to his 2016 form over the next two and a half months.
    In that case, you're probably better off keeping him and if anything, MAYBE explore trading him over the off-season if he pitches like 2016 Disco through the end of the season, further cementing his value.
    (Referring to Jack Hannahan signing with a Korean team)
    Since there are no teams on the moon, I guess South Korea's far enough from Cincinnati to satisfy me.
    -RichRed

  16. #11
    Member JaxRed's Avatar
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    Re: Looking ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by corkedbat View Post
    The salaries of Scooter, Puig, Kemp, Wood, Roark, Hernandez, Hughes, (J) Iglesias, Dietrich, Duke and what remains of Bailey's deal come off the books at the end of the season. Provided the front office intends to re-invest the money into the roster, how would you allocate it.

    Options. I'd pick up Hughes' option.

    Extend. (Provided they make the end of the season) I'd consider Hernandez, Dietrich & Iglesias & possibly Roark (all price dependent), Puig - I'd try, but don't see it. Wood - maybe a year to raise his value. Kemp - No. Duke - Hell No! Scooter - maybe (if he 1st tries the market and learns his true value)

    Extending young'uns. I'd make a run at Castillo, Winker, possibly Garrett and maybe even Mahler if he finishes strong.

    Outside FA's/Trades. Not sure who will be available, but an Ace would definitely be a #1 priority. Maybe an OF, but Winker has one spot, we'll see about Senzel (not convinced they won't shift him back to 2B) and I'm hoping at least one of Trammell, Siri, Ervin, Friedl or even Aquino can challenge for at least a 4/5 slot. Possibly another starter. Always looking for solid relief help (especially a lefty). A SS of opportunity if an all-round guy can be found.

    Left over cash. International Free Agency & anything significant to bolster the player development system.

    Before trade deadline - Kemp - If you can get something (salary relief or prospect) go for it at any time.

    Trade deadline - Puig if you can get something better than what a qualifying offer can get you. Would not pursue long term deal.

    Scooter - would try to see if I can get him on reasonable 3 year deal. 3/30 or so. Been a soft free agent market. I'd grab it if I were him.
    Hopefully that would fix 2nd base for a few years because not much in pipeline. Do not want to depend on Senzel because there are so many questions/holes at.....

    OF/1B - A LOT of questions. Every pencils in Winker, but he's now he's fixed his shoulder issue but numbers are down for second straight year. He's cheap and will be for a while. So pencil him in (no ink), and certainly no ink on a long term deal.

    Schebler - not doing the job so far. Ervin not doing the job in AAA. Trammell is getting the job done in AA but Siri, Friedl are not. So we may need Senzel to cover a spot in the OF.

    1B - You may have to at least consider the idea that time has hit Joey. If so, who's the future?

    We may have to hope an Aquino surprises if Ervin doesn't bounce back.

    Pitching - Like where we are. Only sign a long term (5 years or so) deal with Castillo if he agrees to a deal that the rest of the baseball world marvels at for how cheap we got him. I'd be slowly working Stephenson backs towards starter. We have lots of relief options coming up.

    Assuming we keep Roark at trading deadline and he's pitching moderately well, I'd approach him then and see if he wants to do another year at $10 million.

    And assuming Wood pitches fairly well, would see if he might want to stick around on 3 year deal or so at 10 mill each.

    So would try to head into 2010 with same starters if possible with possibly Stephenson in mix with Sims and Santiallan in the minors.

    Pick up the option on Hughes, try to do Hernandez for another year for 2 million.

    Draft a college masher in 2019 draft that plays OF/Corner spot.
    Last edited by JaxRed; 04-21-2019 at 06:15 PM.
    The lowest acceptable payroll amount for ownership to show they are not greedy pigs is 15 million more than they are currently paying. No matter what that currently is.

  17. #12
    Member corkedbat's Avatar
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    Re: Looking ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by adkindo View Post
    -- If Senzel looks like he can be an above average CF'er, and Scooters bat looks good when he returns, I would definitely explore extending Scooter for 3-4 years....only if he is reasonable about his market value. Senzel playing CF is much more valuable for the team than 2nd base. After this past summer, I would hope Scooter noticed 2nd Basemen did not have a "players market". There is simply not much talent on the market, and his bat is valuable in our lineup.

    -- I am definitely trying to extend Castillo, Winker, Garrett and Mahle. If Peraza's bat comes back around this season, I would add him to the list.

    -- I would be very hesitant to do anything with Wood, unless he shows up and pitches great with no sign of a reoccurring injury. I just do not like the back and pitcher thing at all. If Roark has a strong season, I would have no issue resigning him on a reasonable deal for a couple years.

    -- I would not overpay Puig, and I think someone may do that.

    -- Bring back Casali.

    -- Would like to keep Dietrich and Iglesias on our bench.

    -- Doubt we will, but I am all for going after a Gerrit Cole, Zack Wheeler or Madison Bumgarner to slide into that #2 slot in the rotation.

    -- Explore a trade to add a bat in the OF.

    It seems like there is a strong trend of extending players before they get to FA....so there may be less talent in the coming years via FA. I think we need to be smart, but when the option appears to present value, we have to keep our own young talent.
    Overlooked Casali. I agree about a reasonable extension.

  18. #13
    Member adkindo's Avatar
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    Re: Looking ahead

    if Peraza's bat does not wake up, is Suarez moving back to shortstop a consideration? If we are looking for a way to add a bat to the lineup, Anthony Rendon (Nationals) and Josh Donaldson (Braves) will be FA's @ 3B. Yasmani Grandal has a mutual option @ $16 million with the Brewers if we looked to upgrade our bat at catcher.

  19. #14
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    Re: Looking ahead

    Quote Originally Posted by adkindo View Post
    if Peraza's bat does not wake up, is Suarez moving back to shortstop a consideration? If we are looking for a way to add a bat to the lineup, Anthony Rendon (Nationals) and Josh Donaldson (Braves) will be FA's @ 3B. Yasmani Grandal has a mutual option @ $16 million with the Brewers if we looked to upgrade our bat at catcher.
    No
    The world is a messy place. People are inconsistent and complicated. Maybe we should see how different things could be if we gave grace and forgiveness to our fellow human beings when they fail to be perfect in our eyes. -- me

  20. #15
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Looking ahead

    Man, the OF is really in dire shape. I'm really glad they are moving Senzel out there. The big leaguers are really stinking up the joint. Winker looks like he might survive. Trammell and maybe Siri (as a role player) seem to have big league potential. The rest of the "prospects" are off to horrid starts. Phillip Ervin, TJ Friedl, Stuart Fairchild, Mike Siani, Miles Gordon, Narciso Crook, Nick Longhi, Kyle Wren, Renial Ozuna, Lorenzo Cedrola are all struggling big time. Even the ones "hitting" like Randy Ventura, Andy Sugilio and Mariel Bautista aren't really tearing it up to the point where a promotion to the next level would cross your mind. .

    When the reds sell off all these pending FA, I hope a couple of young, toolsy outfielders who've had some success at AA or above are part of the return. The OF depth is almost as bad as the pitching and the big league level OF has been mediocre at best for the last several years. The horrible pitching has kind of kept us from noticing, but it's time for some new blood throughout the system IMO.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH


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