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Thread: Packy Naughton

  1. #1
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Packy Naughton

    In search of bring spots on the farm, one should certainly look at Packy Naughton.

    We are only 4 starts (and 23 2/3 IP) deep into the season, but Packy took his solid peripherals from 2018 into elite territory on the young season.

    Packy just turned 23 years old, so he was drafted at age 21 in the 9th round out of Virginia Tech. He never started a full season there and put up unsightly ERAs of 6.75 in 2016 as a sophomore and 6.24 in 2017 as a junior. Packy never had a BB rate under 4 for a season in college. The Reds still saw potential and signed him for $137,500.

    His first season in Billings, Packy started 12 of the 14 games he pitched and put up a good ERA (3.15), but still had a FIP of 4.47 and xFIP of 4.48.

    Last year in Dayton, some could get caught up in his poor record of 5 - 10 at Dayton and a mediocre ERA of 4.03, but Packy only walked 1.99 per 9 innings turning a weakness into a strength. He also cut his HR/FB from 11.4% to 6.1% bringing his FIP down to 3.48 and xFIP to 3.58.

    2019 is where he has turned himself into one of the best hopes on the farm. He has a 10.27 K/9 and a BB/9 of 1.14 and hasn't allowed a HR all season. He eventually will allow a HR this season, but he should limit them with a 54.8% GB rate. This all adds up to a 1.90 ERA, 1.56 FIP and 2.13 xFIP.

    Not bad for Redszone's #34 prospect.

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    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Packy Naughton

    I had some doubts about Packy that mostly lingered over from fellow college lefty Scott Moss, whose reputation among fans seemed to outpace his performance. But he's showing that throwing strikes and missing bats is a winning combination.

    I'd personally like to see the Reds bump Packy up to Chattanooga if he keeps this up for another several starts. I think the Reds sometimes rush pitchers along from AAA to the majors but go too slow with bringing them along in the minors, I think the Braves are an organization to learn from in terms of how they promote their young arms.
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    Re: Packy Naughton

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    In search of bring spots on the farm, one should certainly look at Packy Naughton.

    We are only 4 starts (and 23 2/3 IP) deep into the season, but Packy took his solid peripherals from 2018 into elite territory on the young season.

    Packy just turned 23 years old, so he was drafted at age 21 in the 9th round out of Virginia Tech. He never started a full season there and put up unsightly ERAs of 6.75 in 2016 as a sophomore and 6.24 in 2017 as a junior. Packy never had a BB rate under 4 for a season in college. The Reds still saw potential and signed him for $137,500.

    His first season in Billings, Packy started 12 of the 14 games he pitched and put up a good ERA (3.15), but still had a FIP of 4.47 and xFIP of 4.48.

    Last year in Dayton, some could get caught up in his poor record of 5 - 10 at Dayton and a mediocre ERA of 4.03, but Packy only walked 1.99 per 9 innings turning a weakness into a strength. He also cut his HR/FB from 11.4% to 6.1% bringing his FIP down to 3.48 and xFIP to 3.58.

    2019 is where he has turned himself into one of the best hopes on the farm. He has a 10.27 K/9 and a BB/9 of 1.14 and hasn't allowed a HR all season. He eventually will allow a HR this season, but he should limit them with a 54.8% GB rate. This all adds up to a 1.90 ERA, 1.56 FIP and 2.13 xFIP.

    Not bad for Redszone's #34 prospect.
    I want to believe, but it doesn't sound like there's much stuff there. He looks to be a classic case of a guy likely to be exposed as he advances.

    The online scouting report say he has an average fastball that sits 89-92 mph, and his changeup is his best pitch. It sounds like he lacks a solid third pitch right now. The consensus seems to be he's a pitchability lefty, and the scouting community ain't too excited.

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    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Packy Naughton

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    I want to believe, but it doesn't sound like there's much stuff there. He looks to be a classic case of a guy likely to be exposed as he advances.

    The online scouting report say he has an average fastball that sits 89-92 mph, and his changeup is his best pitch. It sounds like he lacks a solid third pitch right now. The consensus seems to be he's a pitchability lefty, and the scouting community ain't too excited.
    J.J. Cooper at BA said this last year "Greene’s teammate/opponent on Tuesday was lefthander Packy Naughton, the Reds’ ninth-round pick from last year. It’s hard to stand out when your matching pitches with Greene, but after an effective 2017 season at Rookie-level Billings, the Virginia Tech Hokie showed again he could mix three solid pitches.

    Naughton sat 90-92 mph, but it was his big 1-to-7 curveball that frequently kept hitters off balance. He also mixed in a very usable changeup as well, staying one step ahead of the hitters he was facing."

    https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...e-as-expected/

    I am guessing that he has further developed that curveball if he is striking out as many batters as he is. If the low 90s heater has movement, I think his pitch mix should continue to bring success up the ladder.

    This article is behind a paywall https://www.baseballjournal.com/west...-boston-latin/, but before you get to the paywall, it says he has a five pitch mix. He may have added a couple more pitches this year which are bringing him success.

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    Re: Packy Naughton

    I love his show on Netflix.
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    Re: Packy Naughton

    Packy is still here in Daytona, correct? I know he was off to an excellent start to the season....will be interesting to see if he can maintain it or regresses. Cory Thompson has been strong as a reliever also in all but one appearance.

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    Re: Packy Naughton

    People are focusing too much on the fastball speed. Need three good pitches and need to have a good speed differential between your offspeed and your hard stuff. They even said it on the Reds' game the other night. A lot of 97 mph pitches are getting crushed, but guys that can change speeds and move the ball around seem to have more success. A little old school but it still works.
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    Re: Packy Naughton

    Quote Originally Posted by Shoeless Jeff View Post
    People are focusing too much on the fastball speed. Need three good pitches and need to have a good speed differential between your offspeed and your hard stuff. They even said it on the Reds' game the other night. A lot of 97 mph pitches are getting crushed, but guys that can change speeds and move the ball around seem to have more success. A little old school but it still works.
    Work fast.
    Throw strikes.
    Change speeds.

    That's been a baseball mantra for decades, and it still works.
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    Re: Packy Naughton

    I'm much more interested in command than velocity. It seems like command has been the skill most lacking as we've seen a parade of rookie pitchers recently on this team.

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    Re: Packy Naughton

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I'm much more interested in command than velocity. It seems like command has been the skill most lacking as we've seen a parade of rookie pitchers recently on this team.
    Teams are also changing their approach to batting practice and gearing up for games by facing 95 mph simulators in the tunnels instead of lollipops on the field. I imagine as hitters get adjusted to seeing 95-98 MPH all the time, it will surprise them much less.
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    Re: Packy Naughton

    Refer to my posts regarding Packy in the off-season prospect polls. He's legit

  18. #12
    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Packy Naughton

    Quote Originally Posted by JayBruceFan View Post
    Refer to my posts regarding Packy in the off-season prospect polls. He's legit
    Want to add some of that information to this thread? Many of us are interested in any Packy-related info and this thread seems to be a good place to consolidate that information.

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    Re: Packy Naughton

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    Want to add some of that information to this thread? Many of us are interested in any Packy-related info and this thread seems to be a good place to consolidate that information.
    Certainly. He was my post "defending" Packy and Scott in #15 prospect poll thread:

    Age is irrelevant because they were both college guys. Packy (Va Tech) and Moss (U of Florida) PS. They were at age appropriate levels based off the rest of their respective leagues.

    Here's the "Case":

    Packy led the Midwest League in the following categories while consistently outperforming his teammate Hunter Greene(All while in his first full pro season):

    Games Started
    Innings Pitched
    Strikeouts

    Scott Moss:
    FSL League leader in wins
    #2 in games started for FSL
    W-L record of 28 and 10 over last 2 seasons.

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    Two-Time Batting Champ Edd Roush's Avatar
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    Re: Packy Naughton

    After 8 starts (and 45 1/3 IP), Packy has a 2.38 ERA, 2.04 FIP and 2.85 xFIP. I know the FSL is a pitcher's league, but you gotta love a guy who has had a sub 2 BB/9 for two years straight.

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    Re: Packy Naughton

    Quote Originally Posted by Edd Roush View Post
    After 8 starts (and 45 1/3 IP), Packy has a 2.38 ERA, 2.04 FIP and 2.85 xFIP. I know the FSL is a pitcher's league, but you gotta love a guy who has had a sub 2 BB/9 for two years straight.
    He also has an 8.9 K/9 which is awesome
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