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Thread: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

  1. #16
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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Posters can argue about what the Reds “deserve” to be.

    The question is what they will be in the future. If people think the RS/RA tells us or indicates that, i disagree for reasons that have been spelled out in various threads.
    Correct. From Fangraphs:

    Teams whose real winning percentages exceed their expected winning percentages are often referred to as ‘lucky’, and team who do the opposite are ‘unlucky’. This is a crutch, and it’s far from statistically rigorous. We should not pretend to be able to extract true talent level from two variables alone, and it’s clear that ‘luck’ strikes far more deeply than in simple runs scored and runs allowed in a season. A team with an expected winning percentage of .500 and an actual record of 77-85 is not ‘really’ an 81-win team
    https://library.fangraphs.com/princi...ns-and-losses/
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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  3. #17
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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Posters can argue about what the Reds “deserve” to be.

    The question is what they will be in the future. If people think the RS/RA tells us or indicates that, i disagree for reasons that have been spelled out in various threads.
    My point being, their run expectancy is likely to be a better predictor of their future record than the current record is.

    I agree that I think the Miami series is a tad misleading.... which even when you account for that they are slightly above par.... and guess what, the marlins are in the league, we get to play them, and other teams do to, which I have not accounted for.

    So even when accounting for that, they still have scored at a level indicative of a 85-87 win type of team. Not a world beater by any stretch but a team that has the ability to be a wild card contender. Unfortunately, with the hole already dug... they have to up the antsy to get back into that race.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    I SHOULD be a retired billionaire married to a supermodel and living on my own tropical island but I am not.

  5. #19
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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    Quote Originally Posted by TNRED View Post
    I SHOULD be a retired billionaire married to a supermodel and living on my own tropical island but I am not.
    But what is your run differential?
    ...and this one belongs to the Reds.

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    757690 (05-20-2019),redsrule2500 (05-20-2019)

  7. #20
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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    You are what your record says you are.
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  8. #21
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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    Quote Originally Posted by jojo View Post
    You are what your record says you are.
    Currently, yes, but what is indicative of future record?
    redsrule2500
    Go Reds!
    “I’m a normal guy blessed with the ability to hit a baseball.” - Sean Casey

  9. #22
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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    Currently, yes, but what is indicative of future record?
    Umm do you watch the games?
    I would say we look like a slightly below 500 team, regardless of what the #s show. We pretty much don’t compete against contenders 1-3 pitchers. Just non competitive ab after another.
    We don’t manufacture runs although Senzel looks good at the top now. Hey on and get take a bag when needed.
    Our 2 and 4 or 5 hole hitters(Puig and Votto) have been auto outs.
    Our defense outside of Iglesias is just bad. Winker really hurts in the field.
    Pitching has been amazing. But who expects that to continue at this clip?
    Use your eyes and don’t be a slave to #s. Baseball is still baseball

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    Shoeless Jeff (05-21-2019)

  11. #23
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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    The Reds currently should be sitting at a .567 winning percentage and 2nd place in the division, based on Runs Scored/Runs Against. They currently have a fascinating +24 Runs differential and yet are 7.5 games back and in last place at 21-27. I find in these situations you'd have to either blame the manager or luck.

    Anyone else with any thoughts on the RS/RA stat? If it is just luck, can we expect the Reds to gradually move toward .560 for the rest of the year?
    The Cincinnati Reds are 21-26........the Reds do not need help losing games

  12. #24
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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    We are 23rd in Hitting War.
    We are 1st in Pitching War.

    That sounds like a perfect .500 team to me.

  13. #25
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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    Currently, yes, but what is indicative of future record?
    Full, dispassionate analysis of the Reds team and it’s competition going forward.

    Doesn’t boil down to a single number, ratio, or percentage published on the sports websites.

  14. #26
    Five Tool Fool jojo's Avatar
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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    Currently, yes, but what is indicative of future record?
    Not a team's current RS/RA.....
    "This isn’t stats vs scouts - this is stats and scouts working together, building an organization that blends the best of both worlds. This is the blueprint for how a baseball organization should be run. And, whether the baseball men of the 20th century like it or not, this is where baseball is going."---Dave Cameron, U.S.S. Mariner

  15. #27
    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    Quote Originally Posted by Alabama View Post
    Umm do you watch the games?
    I would say we look like a slightly below 500 team, regardless of what the #s show. We pretty much don’t compete against contenders 1-3 pitchers. Just non competitive ab after another.
    We don’t manufacture runs although Senzel looks good at the top now. Hey on and get take a bag when needed.
    Our 2 and 4 or 5 hole hitters(Puig and Votto) have been auto outs.
    Our defense outside of Iglesias is just bad. Winker really hurts in the field.
    Pitching has been amazing. But who expects that to continue at this clip?
    Use your eyes and don’t be a slave to #s. Baseball is still baseball
    Isn't this what was done when average and RBI were the most important stats?
    redsrule2500
    Go Reds!
    “I’m a normal guy blessed with the ability to hit a baseball.” - Sean Casey

  16. #28
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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    I agree - and it's not even necessarily a very defensible position. I can see situations where the opposition is placing a 3rd baseman on the mound, perhaps you remove the 8th and 9th inning runs, but that's it...
    unless it's sandoval, in which case the reds wouldn't be able to hit him anyway.

  17. #29
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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    The RS/RA winning expectation also expects an even distribution of those runs. But in the Reds case RS is not an even distribution. It has a lot of low run games and a lot of really high run scoring games that affects the W/L expectations.

    Because in baseball when you are real bad offensively you can not score less than zero but when you are on you can score 12,14 ect amounts of runs that can skew run expectations because they are farther from the peak distribution. It is also a flaw in run matrix. It is also part of the flaw in the argument against bunting.

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    Shoeless Jeff (05-21-2019)

  19. #30
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    Re: .567 Winning % and 2nd Place

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    The RS/RA winning expectation also expects an even distribution of those runs. But in the Reds case RS is not an even distribution. It has a lot of low run games and a lot of really high run scoring games that affects the W/L expectations.

    Because in baseball when you are real bad offensively you can not score less than zero but when you are on you can score 12,14 ect amounts of runs that can skew run expectations because they are farther from the peak distribution. It is also a flaw in run matrix. It is also part of the flaw in the argument against bunting.
    please expound on how there is a flaw in the argument against bunting. sacrifice bunting (with the exception of the pitcher doing it) means giving up outs, which is bad baseball according to the math. at least, that is my understanding, but if there is legitimate information out there that contradicts what i am saying, i am all ears.


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