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Thread: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

  1. #181
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Talking about Suarez
    Ah, well.

    My bad.

    Carry on.

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  3. #182
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Just to put this into perspective, there only were 51 MLB position players who produced 15 or more WAR in the five year stretch of 2014-18. We are talking about the elite here.
    Not elite.

    Each season, somewhere around 60 - 70 guys earn 3.0 WAR.

    Disregarding catchers (playing time issues limit WAR for most catchers as do pitcher framing/ defensive issues), that works out to about the top quartile of all starters. If you limit it to qualified starters (ie, those not platooned, called up halfway through the season, et al), you're dropping the requirements to about one in three.

    And that makes sense, when you see that Fangraphs measures a 3.0 WAR player as a "good player".

    Senzel projects to be a 3.0+ guy moving forward not only because of his bat, but because of his glove. There are extenuating circumstances in Senzel's favor:

    1. He's not played CF very long and will most likely move to a position farther down the defensive spectrum soon.
    As a 3B or even a 2B, Senzel profiles as a well above average defender. As a CF, he's passable. This team needs him in CF, but next year, he might well have another position.

    2. He has a relatively high error rate for a CF and should see that drop as he gets more chances.
    Much like Puig last season, Senzel's error rate impacts his UZR and WAR a great deal. This early in the season, it has an outside impact, in fact, unless you believe Senzel is truly a stone glove that will earn 6 - 9 errors this season. That is extremely unlikely.

    3. The more experience he has as a CF, the better he should be defensively.
    Senzel has had about 500 innings to get used to the routes and vagaries of the position. As he plays it more, he should become a better defender.

    4. As Senzel moves through the season and his career, he'll become a better baserunner.
    This is similar to the argument above. Senzel has been caught five times attempting to steal. That's a lot, especially for a kid who "only" has 11 steals. Bell, as an analytics guy, will limit his attempts moving forward to those that are either truly impactful or most likely to be successful. Senzel should also learn the little tricks of the trade that help fast guys (which he is-- Senzel is in the 95th percentile of all MLB players when running) be better baserunners.

  4. #183
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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Not elite.

    Each season, somewhere around 60 - 70 guys earn 3.0 WAR.

    Disregarding catchers (playing time issues limit WAR for most catchers as do pitcher framing/ defensive issues), that works out to about the top quartile of all starters. If you limit it to qualified starters (ie, those not platooned, called up halfway through the season, et al), you're dropping the requirements to about one in three.

    And that makes sense, when you see that Fangraphs measures a 3.0 WAR player as a "good player".

    Senzel projects to be a 3.0+ guy moving forward not only because of his bat, but because of his glove. There are extenuating circumstances in Senzel's favor:

    1. He's not played CF very long and will most likely move to a position farther down the defensive spectrum soon.
    As a 3B or even a 2B, Senzel profiles as a well above average defender. As a CF, he's passable. This team needs him in CF, but next year, he might well have another position.

    2. He has a relatively high error rate for a CF and should see that drop as he gets more chances.
    Much like Puig last season, Senzel's error rate impacts his UZR and WAR a great deal. This early in the season, it has an outside impact, in fact, unless you believe Senzel is truly a stone glove that will earn 6 - 9 errors this season. That is extremely unlikely.

    3. The more experience he has as a CF, the better he should be defensively.
    Senzel has had about 500 innings to get used to the routes and vagaries of the position. As he plays it more, he should become a better defender.

    4. As Senzel moves through the season and his career, he'll become a better baserunner.
    This is similar to the argument above. Senzel has been caught five times attempting to steal. That's a lot, especially for a kid who "only" has 11 steals. Bell, as an analytics guy, will limit his attempts moving forward to those that are either truly impactful or most likely to be successful. Senzel should also learn the little tricks of the trade that help fast guys (which he is-- Senzel is in the 95th percentile of all MLB players when running) be better baserunners.
    Really not arguing about what Senzel could produce. Just discussing how difficult and rare it would for anyone to put up 17 WAR over their career.

    Being good for 5 consecutive years makes you elite. It’s quite rare.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  5. #184
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Really not arguing about what Senzel could produce. Just discussing how difficult and rare it would for anyone to put up 17 WAR over their career.

    Being good for 5 consecutive years makes you elite. It’s quite rare.
    Quite rare?

    Again, not really.

    Roughly two players per team.

    Seven spots.

    Nearly a 30% probability.

  6. #185
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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Quite rare?

    Again, not really.

    Roughly two players per team.

    Seven spots.

    Nearly a 30% probability.
    Most teams don’t have the same starting 8 for 5 seasons in a row. It’s much bigger pool than you’re assuming.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  7. #186
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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Most teams don’t have the same starting 8 for 5 seasons in a row. It’s much bigger pool than you’re assuming.
    We're not talking about teams.

    We're talking about spots for individual players.

    It doesn't matter if Jose Iglesias plays for the Tigers or the Reds or the Yankees. It matters that he plays.

  8. #187
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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    We're not talking about teams.

    We're talking about spots for individual players.

    It doesn't matter if Jose Iglesias plays for the Tigers or the Reds or the Yankees. It matters that he plays.
    Teams don’t just shift players around. They release some and bring up new ones. And we aren’t just talking about starters, we are talking about all MLB position players.

    I’m watching the game but will get you numbers shortly.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    There were 330 qualified position players from 2014-2018. That means guys who averaged 500 PA’s a season over that time.

    There were 2444 position players total who played from 2014-2018.

    51 is 15% of 330

    51 is 2% of 2444.

    Call it what you like, it’s rare.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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    TeamSelig (06-22-2019)

  11. #189
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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Talking about Suarez
    We can dig it.
    Eric Stratton, Rush Chairman. Damn glad to meet ya.

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    The Operator (06-22-2019)

  13. #190
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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    There were 330 qualified position players from 2014-2018. That means guys who averaged 500 PA’s a season over that time.

    There were 2444 position players total who played from 2014-2018.

    51 is 15% of 330

    51 is 2% of 2444.

    Call it what you like, it’s rare.
    Sigh.

    You do this every time.

    There is a vast difference between players like Rossell Herrera and Drew Stubbs.

    There is another chasm between the Drew Stubbs of the world and The Suarezes and Senzels.

    You know this, yet you manipulate numbers to "prove" whatever point you feel like arguing.

    It's remarkably dishonest. Thankfully, most of the posters on the board know this and pretty much disregard your posts.

    However, I'm stupid, so I'll try it again.

    From 2000 until 2019-- 20 years of data-- 345 players have amassed 3000 ABs. That works out to about a five-year prime and a 10-year career. Nick Senzel and Eugenio Suarez both are likely to amass that number of ABs, largely because they are already a full-time starter who is a top prospect with an elite pedigree OR already have a large number of ABs at a young age and, due to salary and/or long-term contract, will be given every opportunity to play. Suarez already has 2500 ABs and 11.4 bWAR; he also has a team-friendly LTC wherein he's promised at least four more years of payment. Senzel is under control for at least six more years.

    Of those 345 previous players similar to Senzel and Suarez, a full 234 have accrued a career WAR of 15 or better. 219 earned 16.6 (double Drew Stubbs' total) fWAR-- or the mark you're arguing is nearly impossible/ rare/ 2%.

    Put another way, 64% of players similar to Suarez (and Senzel) have historically been able to earn a whole bunch of WAR.

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    RedTeamGo! (06-22-2019)

  15. #191
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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Sigh.

    You do this every time.

    There is a vast difference between players like Rossell Herrera and Drew Stubbs.

    There is another chasm between the Drew Stubbs of the world and The Suarezes and Senzels.

    You know this, yet you manipulate numbers to "prove" whatever point you feel like arguing.

    It's remarkably dishonest. Thankfully, most of the posters on the board know this and pretty much disregard your posts.

    However, I'm stupid, so I'll try it again.

    From 2000 until 2019-- 20 years of data-- 345 players have amassed 3000 ABs. That works out to about a five-year prime and a 10-year career. Nick Senzel and Eugenio Suarez both are likely to amass that number of ABs, largely because they are already a full-time starter who is a top prospect with an elite pedigree OR already have a large number of ABs at a young age and, due to salary and/or long-term contract, will be given every opportunity to play. Suarez already has 2500 ABs and 11.4 bWAR; he also has a team-friendly LTC wherein he's promised at least four more years of payment. Senzel is under control for at least six more years.

    Of those 345 previous players similar to Senzel and Suarez, a full 234 have accrued a career WAR of 15 or better. 219 earned 16.6 (double Drew Stubbs' total) fWAR-- or the mark you're arguing is nearly impossible/ rare/ 2%.

    Put another way, 64% of players similar to Suarez (and Senzel) have historically been able to earn a whole bunch of WAR.
    I am not manipulating anything. You are the one manipulating the date and changing the argument.

    I said that accumulating 17 WAR is rare for a MLB player, and clearly I meant any MLB player.

    I provided numbers that backed it up. Only 2% of all MLB position players over a five year period produced at least 15 WAR.

    That is rare. It’s the definition of rare. Those players, the top 2% of all players are easily defined as elite.

    Then you come in and change the argument to it just to include players similar to Suarez. Why? There makes absolutely zero sense, and clearly skews the numbers.

    If I said it’s is rare for an actor to get the lead in five major studio movies, I am not talking only about actors already have had leads in major studio movies, I am clearly referring to all actors, including ones that so far have on,u had bit parts.

    Here is where you logic falls completely apart:

    Within that large group of all MLB players, are players who are not similar to Suarez yet, but who will be. So it’s essential to include them. One of them is Senzel, since we really don’t know how productive of a player he will be.

    My point is that it is extremely rare for a player to even be a starter for a five year period, which is what it would take produce that much WAR. So it’s not just illogical, it’s absurd to only look at guys who have been starters as your data pool.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  16. #192
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    I am not manipulating anything. You are the one manipulating the date and changing the argument.

    I said that accumulating 17 WAR is rare for a MLB player, and clearly I meant any MLB player.

    I provided numbers that backed it up. Only 2% of all MLB position players over a five year period produced at least 15 WAR.

    That is rare. It’s the definition of rare. Those players, the top 2% of all players are easily defined as elite.

    Then you come in and change the argument to it just to include players similar to Suarez. Why? There makes absolutely zero sense, and clearly skews the numbers.

    If I said it’s is rare for an actor to get the lead in five major studio movies, I am not talking only about actors already have had leads in major studio movies, I am clearly referring to all actors, including ones that so far have on,u had bit parts.

    Here is where you logic falls completely apart:

    Within that large group of all MLB players, are players who are not similar to Suarez yet, but who will be. So it’s essential to include them. One of them is Senzel, since we really don’t know how productive of a player he will be.

    My point is that it is extremely rare for a player to even be a starter for a five year period, which is what it would take produce that much WAR. So it’s not just illogical, it’s absurd to only look at guys who have been starters as your data pool.
    Horsecrap.

    You argued that Senzel doubling Drew Stubbs' career WAR would be difficult.

    Full stop.

    It had absolutely nothing to do with "all mlb players".

    Your post, btw, after WV said he'd bet $1000 that Senzel would double Stubbs' WAR:

    Stubbs was better than we want to remover [sp]. He put up a very respectable 8.5 bWAR over his career. Senzel would have to have put up 17 bWAR for you to win your bet, which is a high mark. For reference, Suarez currently is at 11 bWAR for his career. You might want to hope no one takes you up on that bet.
    You then changed your argument in post #184:

    Really not arguing about what Senzel could produce. Just discussing how difficult and rare it would for anyone to put up 17 WAR over their career.

    Being good for 5 consecutive years makes you elite. It’s quite rare.
    Senzel is not the typical MLB scrub. He should not be compared to those cup of coffee guys like Rossell Herrera and others.

    He is an elite prospect who is starting in his first full season as a rookie and a Rookie of the Year candidate.

    Those guys get tons of time to prove themselves.
    Last edited by Bourgeois Zee; 06-22-2019 at 05:49 PM.

  17. #193
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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Horsecrap.

    You argued that Suarez doubling Drew Stubbs' career WAR would be difficult.

    Full stop.

    It had absolutely nothing to do with "all mlb players".
    It was Senzel doubling Stubbs career WAR. Maybe that is the confusion.

    I never argued that it would be difficult for Suarez to reach 17 career WAR. I did say that we can’t be sure he will. He currently is having a down year, so he will need to get back on track, but I never argued I thought it would be rare if he did.

    Reposting this for clarification:

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Really not arguing about what Senzel could produce. Just discussing how difficult and rare it would for anyone to put up 17 WAR over their career.

    Being good for 5 consecutive years makes you elite. It’s quite rare.
    Last edited by 757690; 06-22-2019 at 05:50 PM.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    WAR is all theoretical stuff. There is no single formula for it so it's silly to argue someone's WAR in their rookie season.. Wins above replacement is a lousy metric to determine who's elite and who isn't ESPECIALLY for a rookie with some history of injuries.

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    Rolando (06-22-2019)

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    Re: What Happened to Senzel's Power?

    Quote Originally Posted by mamell View Post
    WAR is all theoretical stuff. There is no single formula for it so it's silly to argue someone's WAR in their rookie season.. Wins above replacement is a lousy metric to determine who's elite and who isn't ESPECIALLY for a rookie with some history of injuries.
    Amen
    Crazy Reds Fan


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