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Thread: Top Prospects - June edition

  1. #1
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Top Prospects - June edition

    Nick Senzel has reached 130 PAs and is on the verge of losing his rookie status. Meanwhile, a number of the top prospects are having mediocre seasons. If you drop Senzel and take 2019 into account, how has your list changed? Mine has changed a lot, so I'll go first:

    1. Jonathon India
    2. Taylor Trammell
    3. Nick Longhi
    4. Hunter Greene
    5. Tony Santillan
    6. Tyler Stephenson
    7. Jose Garcia
    8. Jose Siri
    9. Packy Naughton
    10. Joe Kuhnel
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Top Prospects - June edition

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Nick Senzel has reached 130 PAs and is on the verge of losing his rookie status. Meanwhile, a number of the top prospects are having mediocre seasons. If you drop Senzel and take 2019 into account, how has your list changed? Mine has changed a lot, so I'll go first:

    1. Jonathon India
    2. Taylor Trammell
    3. Nick Longhi
    4. Hunter Greene
    5. Tony Santillan
    6. Tyler Stephenson
    7. Jose Garcia
    8. Jose Siri
    9. Packy Naughton
    10. Joe Kuhnel
    Will post my list after tomorrow night, but I’m surprised you’d put an almost 24 year old 1B/LF-type with a .735 career minor league OPS (and a .619 OPS last season) as your #3 guy. Personally TayTram is still the clear cut #1 for me, and I think India should get bumped up this month to see what he can do in AA.
    Last edited by Benihana; 06-02-2019 at 05:00 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    Re: Top Prospects - June edition

    Ugh. Not sure I’ve seen a farm take a nosedive like this one had without graduating 3 or 4 of the top guys to the majors.

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    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Top Prospects - June edition

    I'd still have Trammell at #1. India would be #2. After that I'm all ??????
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    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Top Prospects - June edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Will post my list after tomorrow night, but I’m surprised you’d put an almost 24 year old 1B/LF-type with a .735 career minor league OPS (and a .619 OPS last season) as your #3 guy. Personally TayTram is still the clear cut #1 for me, and I think India should get bumped up this month to see what he can do in AA.
    Normally I wouldn't but he's a young prospect aged player having a good season at AAA and seems to have found the ability to do the one thing that's been holding him back. He's the only guy on the list who seems to be likely to make in impact in the next year or two. Unless Trammell, Santillan or Stephenson step it up a notch, there is no long term help coming other than Longhi until 2021 at the soonest. They've had some older guys like Ervin, O'grady and Refsnyder do well, Longhi doesn't turn 24 until August. This is basically his age 23 season in AAA.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Wait... What? Vander's Avatar
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    Re: Top Prospects - June edition

    Longhi above Hunter Greene? Uh...

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    Edd Roush (06-02-2019)

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    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Top Prospects - June edition

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    I'd still have Trammell at #1. India would be #2. After that I'm all ??????
    Trammell had a .752 OPS at A+ last year and now .726 at AA. He seems to be going backwards. India at .795 at Daytona. I'm not optimistic that either will help before 2021.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Top Prospects - June edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Vander View Post
    Longhi above Hunter Greene? Uh...
    Greene juts had TJ Surgery and is basically a non-entity until 2021. I'm not a believer that guys with major injuries are automatic to be what hey were when they come back. We've seen lots of guys never come back. He's a question mark for me until he comes back. I still have him in the top 5 because I think they could still trade him for something less risky.

    What does your list look like?
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    Re: Top Prospects - June edition

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Trammell had a .752 OPS at A+ last year and now .726 at AA. He seems to be going backwards. India at .795 at Daytona. I'm not optimistic that either will help before 2021.
    Trammell is also 9 months younger and a level ahead of him. Agree that I wouldn’t count on either helping the big club in the next 12 months, but IMO Trammell is still the better prospect and it’s not all that close. Honestly, to me India is more of a toss-up with Greene at this point, even with the injury. I still have high hopes for Hunter.

    Now if India can outhit Trammell in AA the rest of the way this year, things may start to change. But he’s gotta get promoted first.
    Last edited by Benihana; 06-02-2019 at 05:46 PM.
    Go BLUE!!!

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    M2 (06-02-2019),RiverRat13 (06-02-2019)

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    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Top Prospects - June edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Benihana View Post
    Trammell is also 9 months younger and a level ahead of him. Agree that I wouldn’t count on either helping the big club in the next 12 months, but IMO Trammell is still the better prospect and it’s not all that close. Honestly, to me India is more of a toss-up with Greene at this point, even with the injury. I still have high hopes for Hunter.
    I have hopes for Greene as well, but I keep hearing how coming back from TJ is automatic yet I keep seeing guys come back who are never the same. Greene hasn't pitched 100 innings in what will be about 4 years by the time he comes back. I need to see it first.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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    HokieRed (06-03-2019)

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    Re: Top Prospects - June edition

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Trammell had a .752 OPS at A+ last year and now .726 at AA. He seems to be going backwards. India at .795 at Daytona. I'm not optimistic that either will help before 2021.
    I think league-adjusted stats are called for. Longhi's OPS looks great, but the baseball in AAA is newly juiced. His wRC+ is just 124. For reference Trammel's is one point lower, despite a .736 OPS. FWIW, his wRC+ is behind VanMeter, O'Grady and Aquino on his own team. I don't know if any of those guys is a career big leaguer, yet they're mashing.

    Longhi's never hit for power, and all the sudden he's jumped his ISO more than .100 points over his previous career high. He is about the right age to add some power (and we've got some eye-witness reports suggesting he's bigger), but until he does it at the major league level, I'm not entirely convinced this isn't a mirage.

    I'm also not sold on Kuhnel either. Good story. Big stuff, but I've seen enough dominant minor league relievers go by the wayside to never put one in a top 10.

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    Re: Top Prospects - June edition

    My top 10 hasn't changed much from the beginning of the season.

    Yet.

    What's interesting is where those AAA guys should rank. They are absolutely mashing and have little in the way of pedigree. Brian O'Grady, Josh VanMeter, Aristides Aquino, Nick Longhi-- all are having MVP-like seasons in Louisville (per AB). (Ervin is too, but may have too many AB's to count as a prospect.)

    Too, what to do with guys who've mashed in a few ABs? Chris Okey is killing it in AA in 50-ish ABs. Drew Mount, Juan Martinez, and Brian Rey are doing well too.

    Only Aquino was ever thought of as a top prospect-- and it's been three years since anyone thought that besides TRF.

    Tyler Stephenson has hit well and, IMO, improved his stock. He looks like a real offensive player with a better than average K rate, good patience, and improving pop. He's a top 100 prospect if he can stay behind the plate.

    Jose Garcia has improved across the board. Scott Moss' peripherals (aside from a skyrocketing BB rate) took massive jumps into real prospect territory. If he can limit the walks while keeping the improvements in hit and K rate, he's a difference-maker. Packy Naughton is in the same boat, though a half-season behind. (Santillan is too.)

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    TRF (06-05-2019)

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    Wait... What? Vander's Avatar
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    Re: Top Prospects - June edition

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Greene juts had TJ Surgery and is basically a non-entity until 2021. I'm not a believer that guys with major injuries are automatic to be what hey were when they come back. We've seen lots of guys never come back. He's a question mark for me until he comes back. I still have him in the top 5 because I think they could still trade him for something less risky.

    What does your list look like?
    Saying you're down on Greene is one thing. Puting Longhi up that high? That is just way off base to me. It screams of recency bias. He has a good 40 games, and suddenly he's more valuable than Greene? Santillan? Stephenson? Sorry, not going along with that.

    Without much research, off the top of my head, my list would be (assuming Senzel graduates):

    1. Trammell
    2. India
    3. Greene
    4. Stephenson
    5. Santillan
    6. Garcia
    7. Siri

    And I'd have to look into it more to go beyond that.

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    alwaysawarrior (06-03-2019),mth123 (06-02-2019)

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    Re: Top Prospects - June edition

    Quote Originally Posted by Vander View Post
    Saying you're down on Greene is one thing. Puting Longhi up that high? That is just way off base to me. It screams of recency bias. He has a good 40 games, and suddenly he's more valuable than Greene? Santillan? Stephenson? Sorry, not going along with that.

    Without much research, off the top of my head, my list would be (assuming Senzel graduates):

    1. Trammell
    2. India
    3. Greene
    4. Stephenson
    5. Santillan
    6. Garcia
    7. Siri

    And I'd have to look into it more to go beyond that.
    That's my top seven too.

    I'd probably go Packy Naughton, Scott Moss, and Brian Rey beyond that.

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    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Top Prospects - June edition

    Quote Originally Posted by BillDoran View Post
    I think league-adjusted stats are called for. Longhi's OPS looks great, but the baseball in AAA is newly juiced. His wRC+ is just 124. For reference Trammel's is one point lower, despite a .736 OPS. FWIW, his wRC+ is behind VanMeter, O'Grady and Aquino on his own team. I don't know if any of those guys is a career big leaguer, yet they're mashing.

    Longhi's never hit for power, and all the sudden he's jumped his ISO more than .100 points over his previous career high. He is about the right age to add some power (and we've got some eye-witness reports suggesting he's bigger), but until he does it at the major league level, I'm not entirely convinced this isn't a mirage.

    I'm also not sold on Kuhnel either. Good story. Big stuff, but I've seen enough dominant minor league relievers go by the wayside to never put one in a top 10.
    I'm with you on minor league relievers, but I had trouble finding ten guys to put on the list. I debated on Friedl and Fairchild, but they were terrible for a long stretch. I need to see what happens the rest of the year. The pitching has been especially bad.
    Last edited by mth123; 06-02-2019 at 06:38 PM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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