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Thread: Puig: Let's talk about him

  1. #1
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    Puig: Let's talk about him

    all sizzle, no steak? or about to catch fire as he usually does in june and beyond?

    i'm going with the latter, somewhat out of convenience.

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    Re: Puig: Let's talk about him

    Quote Originally Posted by JFLegal View Post
    all sizzle, no steak? or about to catch fire as he usually does in june and beyond?

    i'm going with the latter, somewhat out of convenience.
    I have been following him his entire career, and his batting average was never anywhere near as low as it is this year, even in early June. In 2019, it's all fizzle.

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    Re: Puig: Let's talk about him

    If you normalize his BABIP, he's around a league average hitter. With his defense, that puts him at around a 2-3 fWAR player. That's about what was expected out of him. It seems he's not benefiting much from GABP, in fact, his ISOP is down this season from his career average.

    My guess is he'll improve, but not to where most Reds fans were expecting him to be.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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    Just a Fan RiverfrontRed's Avatar
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    Re: Puig: Let's talk about him

    My crystal ball says .259/ 26 HR/ 71 RBI/ .812 OPS

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    Re: Puig: Let's talk about him

    Against righties his OPS is .609

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    Re: Puig: Let's talk about him

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    If you normalize his BABIP, he's around a league average hitter. With his defense, that puts him at around a 2-3 fWAR player. That's about what was expected out of him. It seems he's not benefiting much from GABP, in fact, his ISOP is down this season from his career average.

    My guess is he'll improve, but not to where most Reds fans were expecting him to be.
    BABIP always gets brought up around here and I really don't get it. The insinuation seems to be that it strictly has to do with luck. Maybe that's not what you and others are saying but I hope you or someone will elaborate. What is 'normalizing' it and why would that be helpful? Obviouslly all balls put into play aren't equal. All it seems to me like you're saying is if Puig made better contact, he'd have better numbers. I'm all for new metrics that can help me better understand the game and the players, but I just don't see it with this one. Maybe I'm missing something.

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    Re: Puig: Let's talk about him

    Quote Originally Posted by fielder's choice View Post
    BABIP always gets brought up around here and I really don't get it. The insinuation seems to be that it strictly has to do with luck. Maybe that's not what you and others are saying but I hope you or someone will elaborate. What is 'normalizing' it and why would that be helpful? Obviouslly all balls put into play aren't equal. All it seems to me like you're saying is if Puig made better contact, he'd have better numbers. I'm all for new metrics that can help me better understand the game and the players, but I just don't see it with this one. Maybe I'm missing something.
    First, you’re correct there is no guarantee that a player will end up with their career BABIP by the end of the season. However, odds are high that they will, and if their other batted ball numbers are similar to their career ones, it’s even higher.

    Second, I try to say “if” you normalize a players BABIP, because the goal is not to predict what he produce, but just to understand what he is capable of producing. My main point was that even if Puig’s BABIP normalizes over the season, he’s not going to be as productive as most Reds fans are expecting. And that might not even happens, which would mean he’s even less productive.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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    Re: Puig: Let's talk about him

    i will say puig does seem to be hitting a lot of hard balls right at defenders for outs. so, that's a good sign as far as his BABIP is concerned.

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    Re: Puig: Let's talk about him

    Quote Originally Posted by fielder's choice View Post
    BABIP always gets brought up around here and I really don't get it. The insinuation seems to be that it strictly has to do with luck. Maybe that's not what you and others are saying but I hope you or someone will elaborate. What is 'normalizing' it and why would that be helpful? Obviouslly all balls put into play aren't equal. All it seems to me like you're saying is if Puig made better contact, he'd have better numbers. I'm all for new metrics that can help me better understand the game and the players, but I just don't see it with this one. Maybe I'm missing something.
    It's pretty simple math. As the season wears on, most everyone tends to drift toward .300. Bad pitchers and feckless hitters sometimes don't. Puig isn't a feckless hitter.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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    Re: Puig: Let's talk about him

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    First, you’re correct there is no guarantee that a player will end up with their career BABIP by the end of the season. However, odds are high that they will, and if their other batted ball numbers are similar to their career ones, it’s even higher.

    Second, I try to say “if” you normalize a players BABIP, because the goal is not to predict what he produce, but just to understand what he is capable of producing. My main point was that even if Puig’s BABIP normalizes over the season, he’s not going to be as productive as most Reds fans are expecting. And that might not even happens, which would mean he’s even less productive.
    So you're normalizing it to their career numbers? That makes a bit more sense.

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    Re: Puig: Let's talk about him

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It's pretty simple math. As the season wears on, most everyone tends to drift toward .300. Bad pitchers and feckless hitters sometimes don't. Puig isn't a feckless hitter.
    So, I wondered about the word feckless. I thought it meant you didn’t have feck. But I’d never heard of the work feck (spell check is having a time with it).

    So I found this. https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/feckless

    “Did you know that most varieties of English are in fact “feck”-less? They don’t contain a word feck, only the negative counterpart feckless. The “feck” in feckless began as a short form of effect used in the Scots dialect. So feckless essentially means "ineffective," but is also used to describe someone who is irresponsible, incompetent, inept, or without purpose in life.”

    So I learned something new today.
    A saxophone someplace far off played

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    Re: Puig: Let's talk about him

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    It's pretty simple math. As the season wears on, most everyone tends to drift toward .300. Bad pitchers and feckless hitters sometimes don't. Puig isn't a feckless hitter.
    So what are you saying? Puig has just been a little unlucky and he's fine?

  20. #13
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    Re: Puig: Let's talk about him

    I think like 2-2.5 wins sounds about right. It’ll be a slightly down year for him, which is a bummer in GABP
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Sheed View Post
    When it comes to crow, I'd like nothing more than to eat Dick's all season long and into the postseason.

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    Re: Puig: Let's talk about him

    Quote Originally Posted by fielder's choice View Post
    So what are you saying? Puig has just been a little unlucky and he's fine?
    Probably. The elevated K rate is reason for concern. If that stays high, it will put a drag on his numbers. But it's the nature of the game that more hits will start falling for him.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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    Re: Puig: Let's talk about him

    Quote Originally Posted by Roy Tucker View Post
    So, I wondered about the word feckless. I thought it meant you didn’t have feck. But I’d never heard of the work feck (spell check is having a time with it).

    So I found this. https://www.vocabulary.com/dictionary/feckless

    “Did you know that most varieties of English are in fact “feck”-less? They don’t contain a word feck, only the negative counterpart feckless. The “feck” in feckless began as a short form of effect used in the Scots dialect. So feckless essentially means "ineffective," but is also used to describe someone who is irresponsible, incompetent, inept, or without purpose in life.”

    So I learned something new today.
    I try my best to be feckful, but sometimes I don't have a feck to give.
    “[Reading] is the sole means by which we slip, involuntarily, often helplessly, into another's skin, another's voice, another's soul" -- Joyce Carol Oates

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