Puig: Let's talk about him

[BCubb2003]

I’ve alluded to it before, but I predict these advanced defenses will redefine BABIP. What does it mean to put a ball in play when the defense is almost always perfectly positioned?

Also, isn’t it weird how awesome is way better than awful?

[Ohiohaybaler]

I have Puig on my fantasy team this year. I have also had

Schebler
Peraza
Aaron Nola
Mikolas
Wheeler
Harper
Nimmo
Kinsler
Taylor
Brian Anderson
Anibal Sanchez
Hellickson

Puig is doomed to having a bad season until I can find a way to dump him off my team.

[Kc61]

BABIP always gets brought up around here and I really don't get it. The insinuation seems to be that it strictly has to do with luck. Maybe that's not what you and others are saying but I hope you or someone will elaborate. What is 'normalizing' it and why would that be helpful? Obviouslly all balls put into play aren't equal. All it seems to me like you're saying is if Puig made better contact, he'd have better numbers. I'm all for new metrics that can help me better understand the game and the players, but I just don't see it with this one. Maybe I'm missing something.

There is certainly an element of luck in BABIP. The stat relates to batted balls in play; baseball is a game of inches and sometimes luck will dictate if a ball “falls in” or is converted into an out.

But there are other factors that can cause high or low BABIP. Line drive, ground ball, fly ball rates. Quality of contact. Is the hitter using the whole field? Base running speed sometimes.

Defensive shifts have a major influence. If one regularly hits into the shift it will reduce BABIP.

If a player has an unusually high or low BABIP, it’s best to look at his whole statistical picture. Luck has a role; but often there is something else going on with the hitter.

[UPRedsFan]

There is certainly an element of luck in BABIP. The stat relates to batted balls in play; baseball is a game of inches and sometimes luck will dictate if a ball “falls in” or is converted into an out.

But there are other factors that can cause high or low BABIP. Line drive, ground ball, fly ball rates. Quality of contact. Is the hitter using the whole field? Base running speed sometimes.

Defensive shifts have a major influence. If one regularly hits into the shift it will reduce BABIP.

If a player has an unusually high or low BABIP, it’s best to look at his whole statistical picture. Luck has a role; but often there is something else going on with the hitter.

Bad luck, high strikeouts, no power explosion thru 2 months in GABP. All adds up to disappointment and looking for a trade partner or platooning with Dietrich when Scooter gets back.

[UPRedsFan]

Also, isn’t it weird how awesome is way better than awful?

I'm in awe. But I don't know it it's just some or half or full. And now I no longer know what it means. Thanks BCubb

[fielder's choice]

Probably. The elevated K rate is reason for concern. If that stays high, it will put a drag on his numbers. But it's the nature of the game that more hits will start falling for him.

I just have a hard time believing his poor start has a lot to do with luck, having watched the guy at the plate. Balls "straight up in the air" aren't going to fall. His career shows he has always been a slow starter, so hopefully he will get it going. But if his numbers improve it will be because he adjusts and starts hitting better, not because his luck changes IMO

[Kc61]

I just have a hard time believing his poor start has a lot to do with luck, having watched the guy at the plate. Balls "straight up in the air" aren't going to fall. His career shows he has always been a slow starter, so hopefully he will get it going. But if his numbers improve it will be because he adjusts and starts hitting better, not because his luck changes IMO

I agree with all the various factors noted.

In terms of this post, yes, Puig’s fly ball rate is up substantially from last year. If it leaves the ballpark, great, but otherwise it’s a BABIP killer.

[M2]

I just have a hard time believing his poor start has a lot to do with luck, having watched the guy at the plate. Balls "straight up in the air" aren't going to fall. His career shows he has always been a slow starter, so hopefully he will get it going. But if his numbers improve it will be because he adjusts and starts hitting better, not because his luck changes IMO

Hitting is a constant series of adjustment and the elevated K rate perhaps indicates he's not on the ball like he normally would be. So it's probably a case the ball finding the holes as he gets more finely tuned.

[membengal]

Hitting is a constant series of adjustment and the elevated K rate perhaps indicates he's not on the ball like he normally would be. So it's probably a case the ball finding the holes as he gets more finely tuned.

He's bitten and whiffed WAY more at breaking balls down, away and well out of the strike zone than I believe he ever has before (I made that observation in a game thread over the weekend too). I simply don't recall him ever having this issue, and, in fact, one of the things I was most excited about when they got him was his plate discipline - he's a career .346 OBP coming into the season. Now he's around .265. That's...quite a drop-off. I don't know if he's pressing in a contract year, trying to mash in a park that helps that if he would just be himself, or something else, but it is frustrating and puzzling to watch linger this long. Toss in some BABIP bad luck on top of that issue and the result is sub-optimal...

[HammerTime]

My crystal ball says .259/ 26 HR/ 71 RBI/ .812 OPS

Currently on pace for 27 HR 88 RBI

For the record Puig has 54 at bats with RISP (Most out of the Reds) hitting - .296/.322/.389

[Wonderful Monds]

On the upside, his struggles might put him in play for a one year bounceback deal next season too.

[KronoRed]

On the upside, his struggles might put him in play for a one year bounceback deal next season too.

I could see him do a 1 year deal but not in the place where he just struggled, other teams have home parks that are hitter friendly.

[Matt700wlw]

Holy crap. My username and password still works!

[Kinsm]

i will say puig does seem to be hitting a lot of hard balls right at defenders for outs. so, that's a good sign as far as his BABIP is concerned.

He is, as is his BAbip is 80 points lower than his career norm.

His groundball rate this season is about 15% points lower than his career average, and his flyball rate is about 10% points higher than his career average.

I'm not a hitting instructor, but I think he's bought into the launch angle Renaissance too much and that is the cause for the % differences and the increased rate in K's. He may be a perfect example of someone trying too much (though I think that is true of every outfielder they've put out there this year).

[KronoRed]

Holy crap. My username and password still works!

Welcome back.