Top 10 Prospects - Reds Farm

[WrongVerb]

The only expectation I have for Reds prospects is that they be ready to produce when they reach the major leagues.

[Alabama]

The same place constantly clapping on the reds prospects will get us? None of what we talk about has any effect on anything...

Well no crap. Just don’t see the reason in trying to justify the years these guys are having as positive.
I will say though, other, more vocal fanbases can cause change. They don’t all just sit back and take it.

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The only expectation I have for Reds prospects is that they be ready to produce when they reach the major leagues.

And outside of Senzel, it’s been the exact opposite. Look at that wave of pitchers who were handles completely wrong:Stephenson, Reed, Garret, Romano

[WrongVerb]

Well no crap. Just don’t see the reason in trying to justify the years these guys are having as positive.
I will say though, other, more vocal fanbases can cause change. They don’t all just sit back and take it.

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And outside of Senzel, it’s been the exact opposite. Look at that wave of pitchers who were handles completely wrong:Stephenson, Reed, Garret, Romano

I'd quibble with you about Garrett. But your overall point is taken. The Reds do much better -- though not great -- at developing position players than they do pitchers. It's not unreasonable to expect the organization to improve in that area.

But, demanding dominance from a player in AA is ridiculous, too. That jump from A+ to AA is tough -- pitches in AA have more movement and the difference in speed between fastball and offspeed is greater than any of these youngsters has seen in their careers. And some of those pitchers are either their organization's top prospects or guys who have been in the majors. Combine all that with reports that Trammell is retooling his swing so that he can be productive in the majors, and given his strong peripherals, criticism of him at this juncture is absurd.

[RedTeamGo!]

From Doug via twitter moments ago:

Michael Siani is 3-3 tonight and is hitting .393/.479/.557 over his last 17 games for Dayton. the Dragons are currently leading 5-2 in the 6th inning.

[Tom Servo]

From Doug via twitter moments ago:

hmm but he had a poor first month of full season ball, pretty sure that means he should have just quit because he'll never amount to anything

[Alabama]

I'd quibble with you about Garrett. But your overall point is taken. The Reds do much better -- though not great -- at developing position players than they do pitchers. It's not unreasonable to expect the organization to improve in that area.

But, demanding dominance from a player in AA is ridiculous, too. That jump from A+ to AA is tough -- pitches in AA have more movement and the difference in speed between fastball and offspeed is greater than any of these youngsters has seen in their careers. And some of those pitchers are either their organization's top prospects or guys who have been in the majors. Combine all that with reports that Trammell is retooling his swing so that he can be productive in the majors, and given his strong peripherals, criticism of him at this juncture is absurd.

That’s the thing though, every single team that has torn it down and rebuilt have at least one guy Trammells age tearing it up at the MLB level. We’ve just done a bad job of obtaining talent and it’s going to show.
Also, you are taking Doug’s company line of saying they’ve done a good job of developing position players because we simply get a few guys to the bigs. Outside of Votto and Senzel, who have they developed that you feel comfortable being here for the long haul?

[Bourgeois Zee]

That’s the thing though, every single team that has torn it down and rebuilt have at least one guy Trammells age tearing it up at the MLB level. We’ve just done a bad job of obtaining talent and it’s going to show.

I question this assertion.

It depends largely on how you determine "torn it down and rebuilt", doesn't it?

And Senzel is a pretty huge piece of the puzzle.

Top Reds' minor league prospects aren't crushing the ball, at present. That you want to argue that makes them poor prospects is where the argument comes.

[M2]

I recommend not putting a ton of stock in wRC+ for minor leaguers. The league average in most cases is a kid who should never play in the majors. So you've got to trounce the average by a fairly large margin in order to count as doing well in any meaningful context. I would think 125 or 130 would be the buy-in, which means that India is the only "top" position player prospect in the system posting semi-respectable numbers. I'm hopeful some of the bats can improve their current mediocre numbers, but we should be honest enough to admit what they're doing isn't nearly good enough.

The pitching is dog meat. Lodolo instantly jumped to the front of that pack.

[Alabama]

I question this assertion.

It depends largely on how you determine "torn it down and rebuilt", doesn't it?

And Senzel is a pretty huge piece of the puzzle.

Top Reds' minor league prospects aren't crushing the ball, at present. That you want to argue that makes them poor prospects is where the argument comes.

“Tore it down and rebuilt” is pretty def explanatory. What is puzzling you? And Senze is great, but he’s a tier or two down from guys on each of those teams.
Never said poor prospects, just not likely to be impact players.

[CRDB40]

I recommend not putting a ton of stock in wRC+ for minor leaguers. The league average in most cases is a kid who should never play in the majors. So you've got to trounce the average by a fairly large margin in order to count as doing well in any meaningful context. I would think 125 or 130 would be the buy-in, which means that India is the only "top" position player prospect in the system posting semi-respectable numbers. I'm hopeful some of the bats can improve their current mediocre numbers, but we should be honest enough to admit what they're doing isn't nearly good enough.

The pitching is dog meat. Lodolo instantly jumped to the front of that pack.

Is anyone really saying that they are "doing enough"? I would not, but I would challenge the OP in saying that 6/9 are abysmal.

I would say the difference is "sky is falling" folks versus "let's see how the season plays out" folks.

For a couple of the guys on the list, defense is more a package of their prospect shine than a pure offensive game. We're not discussing fantasy prospects, which is what comparing some of these numbers seems to be, we're discussing whole package prospects, which includes the defensive element. And for pitchers, includes working on specific pitches, locations, movement, etc. where the results don't matter as much as the progress in that area.

And I would say that wRC+ matters for league context with the minor leagues in a meaningful enough manner to say at least average, above average, below, etc. Just like major league wRC+ factors in a whole bunch of guys who shouldn't be playing in the majors, minor league metrics factor in guys who are younger, older, rehabbing, ready for the league, not ready for the league, repeating, etc. It's not useless, nor is it the be all end all. (We could parse every minor league number in that fashion if we wanted to.)

India is hitting well.

Trammell has been alright, but yes, we are expecting more from a top prospect like that. I'll reserve the right to wait on his full season there.

Due to the different and longer development curve of catchers, I'm going to see what Stephenson is doing in late July/early August.

Garcia and Siri, for me, are more of a defensive package with some offensive tools versus the opposite. I'll take what they are providing offensively.

I'm pleased with Siani, I think Santillan continues to show he's a MOR arm (and if we were expecting TOR, that always seemed misguided), Richardson is doing well for age/assignment.

Gutierrez has been a complete disappointment, but I think he needs a role change.

I'm just not convinced the sky is falling. And I'm about as low on the Reds' player development as anyone. Has to be one of the worst player development units in all of baseball.

[M2]

Is anyone really saying that they are "doing enough"? I would not, but I would challenge the OP in saying that 6/9 are abysmal.

I would say the difference is "sky is falling" folks versus "let's see how the season plays out" folks.

Seems like semantics to me. The current situation isn't good. If it persists, it's a bad state of affairs for the Reds system. I assume everyone is hoping for better, but it would be even better not to be in a position where we have to hope for better.

Trammell is not doing all right. He's young for his circuit and has the talent to improve, but his current performance is a sizable step backward from what he needs to be doing. Siri's playing like a guy who shouldn't be on a top 10 prospects list. Santillan's littering the bases. Gutierrez has burst into flames. I would not use the term 'doing well" to describe India's season, maybe doing enough. I'm all for the catchers take a long time perspective on Stephenson, but his recent slump has put his numbers into a problem area. Perhaps Siani's figured it out of late, or perhaps it's a hot streak by a kid that's still got issues at the plate. Garcia is the lone guy who's shown some signs of improvement, and it's not like he's tearing it up.

Point being, if you take a snapshot of where the system is today, it's ugly. I buy into the notion that some guys are going to improve. They almost have to do better because it would be hard for things to get much worse. The Reds are experiencing a system-wide dip. There's not really a positive spin to slap onto it beyond hoping it ends.

[Kc61]

Point being, if you take a snapshot of where the system is today, it's ugly. I buy into the notion that some guys are going to improve. They almost have to do better because it would be hard for things to get much worse. The Reds are experiencing a system-wide dip. There's not really a positive spin to slap onto it beyond hoping it ends.

All good points but I can't get too worried about it. Even if some of the "stars" are off-track or delayed, there are plenty of potentially useful players in this farm system.

And they are re-stocking with the just-completed draft; probably will have decent draft position next year as well, albeit not among the very top picks.

The Reds have drafted seriously, they have changed drafting and development personnel, they are trying. Some prospects eke through even if not in the premier roles expected.

So overall, while I acknowledge the dip, I think they will continue to produce good players over time.

[M2]

All good points but I can't get too worried about it. Even if some of the "stars" are off-track or delayed, there are plenty of potentially useful players in this farm system.

And they are re-stocking with the just-completed draft; probably will have decent draft position next year as well, albeit not among the very top picks.

The Reds have drafted seriously, they have changed drafting and development personnel, they are trying. Some prospects eke through even if not in the premier roles expected.

So overall, while I acknowledge the dip, I think they will continue to produce good players over time.

General thoughts off that:

- If you can't hit, you're not that useful.

- I liked the Reds' draft, but it was regarded as a weak class. So it could be a case of taking the right risks in the wrong pool.

- 29 other organizations just had a draft too.

- The development challenge at the moment is how many of these kids can they get back on track? Something's up with this organization and hitting. Don't know what it is, but they need to get it sorted. As for the pitchers, I don't think there's a lot to work with. I'm hoping Lodolo and other draftees can act as a palate cleanser.

[Kc61]

General thoughts off that:

- If you can't hit, you're not that useful.

- I liked the Reds' draft, but it was regarded as a weak class. So it could be a case of taking the right risks in the wrong pool.

- 29 other organizations just had a draft too.

- The development challenge at the moment is how many of these kids can they get back on track? Something's up with this organization and hitting. Don't know what it is, but they need to get it sorted. As for the pitchers, I don't think there's a lot to work with. I'm hoping Lodolo and other draftees can act as a palate cleanser.

Consistent with this, the "dip" has very tangible impact - if Taylor Trammel, Santillan/Gutierrez, Tyler Stephenson, and Jimmy Herget were ready to go, it would be a tremendous boost for the Reds. They fit likely needs for next season. Again, I don't feel too sorry for the Reds - they'll have to spend some money on big leaguers instead, it's time they did. But for a small market team it would have been optimal if some of these prospects were ready for prime time by now.

[Bourgeois Zee]

Consistent with this, the "dip" has very tangible impact - if Taylor Trammel, Santillan/Gutierrez, Tyler Stephenson, and Jimmy Herget were ready to go, it would be a tremendous boost for the Reds. They fit likely needs for next season. Again, I don't feel too sorry for the Reds - they'll have to spend some money on big leaguers instead, it's time they did. But for a small market team it would have been optimal if some of these prospects were ready for prime time by now.

You're absolutely right about the Reds needing to spend money next season. They have 6 guys currently on the roster plus Gennett and Wood they might well lose at the end of the season. Of those, three are bullpen depth, two are starting pitchers, two are middle infield starters. And there's Puig too.

Next year's rookie class/ minor league depth should include O'Grady, Ervin, Aquino, and/or Longhi. Along with VanMeter, that would seem to cover OF depth/ 4th OF types. It should also include Herget, Sims, and Reed, as relief depth or spot starter material. That has real value, in that they won't have to spend coin on those types of guys, but we've all seen the benefit of finding (the right) bench bats and relatively cheap but useful relievers. That'll cost some coin.

They'll need to figure out what they're doing for at least one starting pitching spot. Dietrich could well take over at 2B, but SS is a question. So is RF.

Trammell, Friedl, Tyler Stephenson, Siri, Scott Moss, Santillan, Packy Naughton, Cory Thompson-- most of those guys look like a step up in terms of help but, to me, are at least a year and a half away. (Depending, of course, on how they finish out this season.) Vlad Gutierrez, as a relief arm, might fight in best here too.