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Thread: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

  1. #856
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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Boston might be a better team without Horford and Irving, but Horford and Irving are far more talented than Walker and Kanter.
    Moneyball 101 - replace star talent in aggregate. The Celtics have a pile of wings that now take roles of greater prominence. You know, wing play, like it's modern basketball. You're stuck in a 1-on-1 mentality when it's a five-man game. Horford's way better than Kanter. Not going to matter if Tatum, Brown and Hayward are all better than Tatum, Brown and Hayward. That's the plan, and it's a damn good one. Kyrie's a prime Ewing Theory candidate (already happened in the 2018 playoffs and Kemba's a forklift upgrade over Rozier).

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Ditto Horford (the acquistion) and Jimmy Butler(the departure) in Philly. (Comparing PERs for a wing and a big? That's weak sauce and you know it, man.)
    You're the one who tried to make the inane comparison in the first place. I just picked out the stat that's supposed to normalize for position. Apparently you don't like that because it pokes a hole in your balloon. Oh well, you should have known better. Horford and Butler play completely different games. 76ers are now a different kind of team as a result. You might want to look at what a big with defensive chops, facilitator skills and shooting range might mean for that team (e.g. frees up Harris to be more of a scorer).
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  3. #857
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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Moneyball 101 - replace star talent in aggregate. The Celtics have a pile of wings that now take roles of greater prominence. You know, wing play, like it's modern basketball. You're stuck in a 1-on-1 mentality when it's a five-man game. Horford's way better than Kanter. Not going to matter if Tatum, Brown and Hayward are all better than Tatum, Brown and Hayward. That's the plan, and it's a damn good one. Kyrie's a prime Ewing Theory candidate (already happened in the 2018 playoffs and Kemba's a forklift upgrade over Rozier).
    That's not Moneyball. It's a narrative.

    Your hypothesis boils down to "addition by subtraction" without figuring out the calculus for the. y'know, subtraction.

    I don't blame you for that. Fans are gonna fan, after all.

    But, hey, props for the story.

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    You're the one who tried to make the inane comparison in the first place. I just picked out the stat that's supposed to normalize for position. Apparently you don't like that because it pokes a hole in your balloon. Oh well, you should have known better. Horford and Butler play completely different games. 76ers are now a different kind of team as a result. You might want to look at what a big with defensive chops, facilitator skills and shooting range might mean for that team (e.g. frees up Harris to be more of a scorer).
    Horford in, Butler out.

    Butler more talented than Horford.

    If you prefer Richardson in, Butler out, that's cool. Butler still more talented.

    Net talent loss for Philly.

    And Boston.

    Narrative aside.

    it's that simple.

  4. #858
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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    That's not Moneyball. It's a narrative.

    Your hypothesis boils down to "addition by subtraction" without figuring out the calculus for the. y'know, subtraction.

    I don't blame you for that. Fans are gonna fan, after all.

    But, hey, props for the story.
    I'm not a Celtics fan. I grew up hating them. I see a lot of them because of geography.

    And you need to go back and read Moneyball. Replacing star talent in aggregate is one of the core principles. It just so happens the Celtics already had the aggregate to do that. If all three of Tatum, Brown and Hayward are better this season, they're a better team than 2018-19. Period. It's not a tricky concept.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    Horford in, Butler out.

    Butler more talented than Horford.

    If you prefer Richardson in, Butler out, that's cool. Butler still more talented.

    Net talent loss for Philly.

    And Boston.

    Narrative aside.

    it's that simple.
    That's the most pathetic analysis I think I've ever seen. Here's an advanced stats sampler:

    A. 20.2 PER, 7.5 WS, 4.8 BPM, 3.4 VORP
    B. 20.2 PER, 7.9 WS, 3.2 BPM, 2.9 VORP

    Hard to find two players closer to each other than that, but have fun using the word "narrative" while supplying nothing but narrative. My suggestion is you might want to look up the word "irony."
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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    This could be the best basketball season since the early '90's.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    Interesting aside to this Al Horford/Boston/Philly discussion.

    Brian Robb

    Verified account

    @BrianTRobb

    Danny Ainge to @Toucherandrich on Al Horford picking the Sixers: "I think that Al really likes to play the 4 more than the 5. He likes playing with Aron Baynes. He didn't mind playing some 5 but I think...going to Philadelphia will allow him to be almost exclusively the 4."

    6:41 AM - 18 Jul 2019
    A major concern for Boston: With the departures of Horford and Baynes, they've gone from having three bigs capable of stretching the floor to one, as only Daniel Theis remains.
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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    Quote Originally Posted by Revering4Blue View Post
    A major concern for Boston: With the departures of Horford and Baynes, they've gone from having three bigs capable of stretching the floor to one, as only Daniel Theis remains.
    They're going to need to change how they play. They can still play four out, but five out is mostly off the table for them.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    They're going to need to change how they play.
    That's an understatement for most teams around the league. Continuity will be King this season. The sooner teams can find lineups that work together and get those lineups regular minutes the greater an advantage these teams will have over those still changing lineups.

    By February 1st, it's unlikely that more than 8 teams will have a 5-man-lineup that has at least 200 minutes together.
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  11. #863
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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    Ben Simmons showing off his improved jump shot. https://www.google.com/amp/s/clutchp...r-workout/amp/
    * Attended the 1990 and 2010 Reds Division clinchers *

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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    That's an understatement for most teams around the league. Continuity will be King this season. The sooner teams can find lineups that work together and get those lineups regular minutes the greater an advantage these teams will have over those still changing lineups.

    By February 1st, it's unlikely that more than 8 teams will have a 5-man-lineup that has at least 200 minutes together.
    IMO, that matters more for teams on the margins. If you've got superior talent, you'll still win more often than not. For instance, Utah's going to be fine mixing in Conley and Bojan.

    Plus, everyone's got some turnover.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    IMO, that matters more for teams on the margins. If you've got superior talent, you'll still win more often than not. For instance, Utah's going to be fine mixing in Conley and Bojan.

    Plus, everyone's got some turnover.
    That's because 80% of the change is a Point Guard who has 11 years of experience, is an excellent Defender, and knows when to shoot and how to keep everyone exactly as involved as they need to be to win. Conley knows exactly how to adapt his game to his personnel and UTA's system. It's more of an issue with teams that have wholesale changes and/or guys in and out of the lineup like POR, LAL, LAC, GSW, NOP, DAL, OKC, HOU, BOS, NJN, TOR, MIA, CHA, PHI, NYK, ATL...
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    From Rotoworld with Rotoworld comments:

    The NBA has begun an investigation into how teams, agents and players handled free agency this summer, focusing on whether improper inducements were offered to players to circumvent the salary cap, according to a story in the New York Times.

    Dennis Robertson, Kawhi Leonard's agent known around the league as "Uncle Dennis," might be in the middle of this, as ESPN's Stephen A. Smith said earlier this month that he had heard that Uncle Dennis was rumored to be seeking houses, planes and guaranteed sponsorship money from suitors for Leonard. It's been an incredible offseason in the NBA, and Adam Silver surely doesn't want to do anything to stop it from being so fun in the future, but this investigation could lead into finding different timelines for free agency, as well as stricter enforcement of the rules in regards to what players can really ask for, as well as when teams can meet with players.

    SOURCE: New York Times
    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    "One problem with people who have no vices is that they're pretty sure to have some annoying virtues."

  16. #868
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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    Quote Originally Posted by Kingspoint View Post
    That's because 80% of the change is a Point Guard who has 11 years of experience, is an excellent Defender, and knows when to shoot and how to keep everyone exactly as involved as they need to be to win. Conley knows exactly how to adapt his game to his personnel and UTA's system. It's more of an issue with teams that have wholesale changes and/or guys in and out of the lineup like POR, LAL, LAC, GSW, NOP, DAL, OKC, HOU, BOS, NJN, TOR, MIA, CHA, PHI, NYK, ATL...
    Pretty sure Mike Conley isn't 80% of Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovich, Ed Davis, Jeff Green and Emmanual Mudiay.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    Quote Originally Posted by goreds2 View Post
    Ben Simmons showing off his improved jump shot. https://www.google.com/amp/s/clutchp...r-workout/amp/
    Still looks funky. Not buying this.

  18. #870
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    Re: NBA 2019-2020 (I知 not your fwend buddy!)

    Are analysts underrating Kings in reshaped Western Conference?

    Data analysts and prognosticators are producing mixed results in their way-too-early power ratings, but most aren’t particularly favorable for Sacramento. CBS Sports rated the Kings 14th in the NBA and ninth in the Western Conference. ESPN ranked them 20th in the NBA and 11th in the west.

    Forecasters at FiveThirtyEight are predicting the Kings will finish last in the Western Conference at 33-49, behind the Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns and even my son’s middle-school team, although that seems highly unlikely. FiveThirtyEight assigned minutes to players using a depth-chart algorithm that suggests Harrison Barnes will log all of his minutes at power forward and Trevor Ariza, brought in to back up Barnes at small forward, will play more than Marvin Bagley III.

    That seems like crazy talk. The Kings will likely start Barnes, Bagley and Dewayne Dedmon on the frontline with De’Aaron Fox and Buddy Hield in the backcourt. They’ll come in waves off the bench with Ariza, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Nemanja Bjelica, Harry Giles III, Richaun Holmes, Cory Joseph and Yogi Ferrell.

    The Kings are deep and talented. On paper, it looks like they’ve improved after winning 39 games to finish ninth in the Western Conference last season, but the question is whether they’ve improved relative to their competition.
    https://www.sacbee.com/sports/nba/sa...232910357.html
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