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Thread: 6/25/19 Musings..

  1. #1
    Member texasdave's Avatar
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    6/25/19 Musings..

    Louisville (28-48) Losers of 5 straight, and 8 of 9, this team needs a rainout. (I can get us a rainout). Tejay Antone will be making his second start for the Bats. The first did not turn out so well, and we are going to chalk that up to nerves. He did strike out 7 in 5.1 innings.

    A couple of nights ago, it was noted that Louisville has used 28 pitchers already this season. That seems like an awful lot.

    Here is how the rest of the NL Central stacks up in that regard:

    Chicago (Iowa) - 31
    Milwaukee (San Antonio) - 25
    Pittsburgh (Indianapolis) - 29
    St. Louis (Memphis) - 25

    So, it looks as if that is pretty much the norm.

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  4. #2
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    Re: 6/25/19 Musings..

    Chattanooga is sitting atop their division in the second half with a 3-2 record. It's early. They will pull straws in the clubhouse before the game to determine the starter.

    Calten Daal is back after a recent stint on the sidelines. He went 3-4 in his first game back. Daal has accumulated just 226 at-bats since the end of the 2015 season. He has been bitten hard by the injury bug. Over the course of his minor-league career, Daal has hit a respectable .283. However, that comes with absolutely no power whatsoever. You need to squint hard to see his career IsoP, which stands at .038. He has launched just 2 home runs in over 1,000 at-bats. I am not saying he doesn't have any pop, but he stops what he's doing to watch Alfredo Rodriguez take batting practice. His mlb career, whatever that might have been, has probably been lost due to all those injuries. Daal made it to AA in 2016 at the age of 22. He's still there.

    Ibandel Isabel is, once again, leading the league in roundtrippers. He has smoked 17 baseballs this season. Over half of his base hits are of the extra-base variety. His K% is up from last year (36.2% - 43.2%). And his BB% is down (8.6% to 7.1%). But that power just might play. And you have to pull for anyone with the middle name of Euclides.

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    Re: 6/25/19 Musings..

    Daytona is situated 2 games out of first with a 3-4 second-half record. Mac Sceroler is tonight's starter. Mac started the season out in the bullpen, but since has been moved into the rotation. Sceroler has made 7 starts, and has been somewhat successful. His ERA, as a starter is 3.73 (Keeping in mind that this is the FSL). But he has a 39/8 K/BB as a starter, and that works in any league. Mac Sceroler is the nephew of Big Ben McDonald, so there are some bloodlines.

    Jonathan India update: India is having a rough month of June, OPSing just .650. For the season his number line reads: .252/.345/.412/.757. Still very respectable for the league he is in.

    To say centerfielder, Lorenzo Cedrola, is diminutive would be an understatement. He is listed at 5'8", 152. One might think someone so small would draw a lot of walks. Not so. 4.3% for his career. He does not strike out much though at 12.5%. He puts the bat on the ball to the tune of a .290 lifetime batting average. His power, predictably, is limited. He runs a lot 88 career stolen bases, but not particularly effectively (38 caught stealing).

    Daytona is opening a 9-game homestand. Time to make some hay.

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    Member texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: 6/25/19 Musings..

    Dayton is even up in the second half at 2-2, which places them 2 games in back of first place. Jhon De Jesus grabs the ball tonight. He is not doing well this season. If you are looking for some positives in his numbers; they aren't there.

    The Dragons do have some positives though: In the month of June, Mike Siani leads the league in hits (25), stolen bases (12), and runs (16). He ranks fifth in batting average (.329). Randy Ventura in his last 14 games is batting .383 (18 for 47) to raise his average from .138 to .289. He is batting .360 in June to rank second in the Midwest League.

    On the pitching side: Connor Bennett in his last eight appearances has two wins and six saves. For the year, he is tied for 2nd in the MWL in saves with nine. He is tied for 1st in appearances with 27. Bennett has not been scored on in June (8.1 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 13 SO, .138 Opp. Avg., 0.84 WHIP). Ricky Salinas in June: 4 GS, 1-0, 1.29 ERA, 21 IP, 16 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 6 BB, 18 SO, .213 Opps. Avg., 1.05 WHIP. Matt Pidich over his last 11 games: 1.64 ERA, 22 IP, 13 H, 9 R, 4 ER, 9 BB, 22 SO. Adrian Rodriguez in June: 6 G, 1-0, 1.35 ERA, 13.1 IP, 11 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 14 SO

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    Re: 6/25/19 Musings..

    Billings held on last night for a 10-7 triumph, lifting their record to 2-8 on the year. Time to get excited, Redszone. First-round draft pick, Nick Lodolo, takes the mound again. He only went one inning last time out, but kept the opponents off of the board. Lodolo turned down 1.75 million out of high school to go to TCU. If you had offered me 50 dollars out of high school, I would have signed. For any job at all.

    Reniel Ozuna has clubbed 3 homers in the early going for Billings, which puts him just 1 off of the league lead.

    Quin Cotton has been on fire to start the season: .355/.429/.581/1.009. The 21-year-old Cotton was drafted from Grand Canyon University. Tim Salmon went to school there, so maybe lightning will strike twice. Cotton might be a bit of a sleeper as a blurb on Baseball America had him as a possible first-round pick in 2019. BA went on to note that Quin was inconsistent early in the season, but came on late. Sleepers are a good thing.

    On the flip side is Cash Case, a name that everyone loves. Case is 1 for 25 in the early going. He did hit well for Greeneville last season.

    After spinning his wheels for several seasons in the lowest of levels, Edwin Yon may be catching on to this hitting-the-baseball thing. He finished up 2018 by OPSing .877 at Greeneville. So far here in 2019, he is OPSing .826 as a Mustang.

    Billings has been to the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 campaigns. They have much work to do here in 2019 in order to get there again.

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    Re: 6/25/19 Musings..

    Greeneville is on a modest 2-game winning streak, and their record is 3 up and 3 down for the season. That puts them 1/2 game behind tonight's opponent, the Johnson City Cardinals. Orlando Noriega is the probably starter. This is Noriega's 4th season in the organization. The young Venezuelan righthander tends to be a bit wild, as witnessed by his career 5.0 career BB/9.

    It's been feast or famine for the Greeneville pitching staff. They have used 15 hurlers so far. 9 have spotless ERAs of 0.00. 5 have ERAs at 9.00 or above. Jose Salvador is the odd duck at 4.77. JC Keys is probably the most impressive so far, striking six, walking one and allowing one hit over his 4.0 innings out of the pen.


    Carlos 'Going For Two' Reina leads the team in OPS at 1.152. He has 5 hits in 4 games, all doubles. Reina is also fairly proficient at gunning down would-be base pilferers. He has gunned down 36% in his time down on the farm. Cristian Olivo, who received a million dollar signing bonus years ago, is showing off some of those skills early. His OPS rests at 1.083. This is his 4th season in the Reds' organization, yet he is still just 20.

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    Re: 6/25/19 Musings..

    The DSL Reds moved to 14-7 with a rain-shortened victory today.

    On the mound: Jose Franco made his 5th start of the season a good one: 4 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 K. On the season, Franco has walked 4 and struck out 21 in 20 innings pitched. He has yet to give up a home run. Eddy Alcantara vultured the win with a shutout stanza. He fanned a pair.

    At the dish: Danny Vellojin singled twice and walked. (.365/1.003) Darlin Guzman singled twice. (.344/.988) Deybert Lozano singled and doubled. Thomas Lora singled, walked twice and stole a base (5).

  11. #8
    Member Bourgeois Zee's Avatar
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    Re: 6/25/19 Musings..

    Vellojin and Guzman have been consistently good so far this season for the DSL Reds. (As has Jose Acosta.)

    Perhaps all three will turn into prospect afterthoughts, but success is always better than the alternative, yes?

  12. #9
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: 6/25/19 Musings..

    Quote Originally Posted by texasdave View Post
    And you have to pull for anyone with the middle name of Euclides.
    That explains why he inherently understands launch angle.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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    Re: 6/25/19 Musings..

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    That explains why he inherently understands launch angle.
    Oh, now you're just being obtuse.
    The world is a messy place. People are inconsistent and complicated. Maybe we should see how different things could be if we gave grace and forgiveness to our fellow human beings when they fail to be perfect in our eyes. -- me

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    Re: 6/25/19 Musings..

    Don't try to be (a)cute.
    [Reading] is the sole means by which we slip, involuntarily, often helplessly, into another's skin, another's voice, another's soul" -- Joyce Carol Oates

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    Re: 6/25/19 Musings..

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    That explains why he inherently understands launch angle.
    He speaks the plane truth.
    The lowest acceptable payroll amount for ownership to show they are not greedy pigs is 15 million more than they are currently paying. No matter what that currently is.

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  20. #13
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    Re: 6/25/19 Musings..

    Are you saying that there is a ray of hope for him?

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  22. #14
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    Re: 6/25/19 Musings..

    Since it is raining here, and I cannot take my dog for a walk, I decided to try to figure out the odds of all 8 of the Reds minor league teams winning on the same night.

    I used this article, and hopefully, did the math correctly: https://www.billjamesonline.com/the_..._etc_etc_etc_/

    If I understood it correctly, James seems to infer there is a observed skill level (OSL) and an underlying skill level (USL). The OSL is easy peasy, it's just the team's winning percentage. The USL is.....well I just took him at his word. It is figured out by this formula: USL = OSL/(2*(1-OSL)). Voila! You then take the USL of the Reds team, and the USL of the Reds opponent, and you plug those two numbers into this formula to find the probably winning percentage of the Reds team. WINNNG PERCENTAGE = USLR(USLR+ USLRO) Whew! USLR - Underlying skill level Reds team. USLRO = Underlying skill level Reds opponent.

    In any event, here goes nothing.

    OBSERVED SKILL LEVEL: Reds team/Reds opponent

    AAA - .368/.541
    AA - .527/.473
    A+ - .528/.431
    A - .405/.288
    RKB - .200/.400
    RKG - .500/.600
    RKA - .500/.667
    DSL - .650/.500

    UNDERLYING SKILL LEVEL: Reds team/Reds opponent

    AAA - .269/.589
    AA - .557/.449
    A+ - .559/.379
    A - .288/.202
    RKB - .125/.333
    RKG - .500/.750
    RKA - .500/1.00
    DSL - .929/.500


    REDS TEAM PROBABLE WINNING PERCENTAGE:

    AAA - .314 = LOUISVILLE
    AA - .554 = CHATTANOOGA
    A+ - .560 = DAYTONA
    A - .588 = DAYTON
    RKB - .273 = BILLINGS
    RKG - .400 = GREENEVILLE
    RKA - .333 = AZL REDS
    DSL - .650 = DSL REDS

    Once you have the probable/likely/hypothetical winning percentages for all 8 teams, just multiply them. .314 x .554 x .560 x .588 x .273 x .400 x .333 x .650 = .0013. That is a very small number indeed. It means that if they played 10,000 times, all 8 teams would win on the same date 13 times. Divide 10,000 by 13 and you get 769. So, the odds of all 8 teams winning on the same date is 1 in 769. I think this is right. If this is not right, don't tell me.
    Last edited by texasdave; 06-25-2019 at 04:50 PM.

  23. #15
    Member texasdave's Avatar
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    Re: 6/25/19 Musings..

    Tejay Antone - Ouch! Five runs in the first inning, four of which were earned.

    Brian O'Grady hit a solo shot in the second, his 16th.

    Bats trail 5-1.


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