Last edited by Umkubas; 10-19-2019 at 10:12 PM.
Big Klu (10-20-2019),Chip R (10-22-2019),Hoosier Red (10-21-2019),M2 (10-20-2019),RichRed (10-19-2019),Ron Madden (10-20-2019)
I'm still waiting for quality Jameson Hannah discussion to erupt in this thread.
I'm not a system player. I am a system.
malcontent (10-20-2019)
I find it funny that we are talking about a reliever. That has a near 4 era during the regular season. 4.50 in the post season and walked 7+ guys per 9.
I will gladly give that up for a starter that is better than league average. Rainey is not even putting up numbers that was better than Peralta
This seems to bother you. That myself, and maybe many others in this "disagreement" with you, aren't staking out a firm, rock solid position, one way or the other (Fail or Succeed?) like you've done. Why aren't we sticking our necks out like you've done?
Again (and I hate to keep bringing this up)... but if we all agree we cannot know the future, then isn't it kinda silly to be asked to form a firm position on future unknown? But I don't know of anyone -other then you obviously - who has read my posts over these last several days who couldn't plainly see the position that I have laid out on Rainey's future (pretty consistent).... I don't know, uncertainty due to not enough of a window to form a firm position either way. And that's even, IMO, utilizing the best evaluation "tools" we humans have at our disposal.
Well I'm glad well finally got that settled.my position is that he'll be a solid reliever in the future and that's the sort of guy the Reds could use especially the way Bell manages. If that's controversial, then...
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
You want my position? It's been pretty consistent .... I don't know (LOL)
What amused me about the Hannah acquisition was the reaction of some many in the Red's fan-base .... we got robbed. This guy ain't gonna amount to nothing. Amazes me how much our "top prospects" are worth gold, untouchable. And when it comes to other organization's top prospects (even top 10) - what's the price of a pound of lead going for?
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
Your position is understandable (and respected). But losing prospects, who go on to solid careers, is simply a part of the game. And as much as organizations attempt to improve their "evaluation skills", the best they can do is minimize it. So yeah, it is kinda disheartening to see a prospect prosper with some other organization. I just don't cry or lament over spilt milk because it's gonna happen. In my lifetime the Reds have capitalized on that too.
With me, it just validates the huge uncertainty involved in evaluating, and assigning a "ranking number", to low level prospects with only high school and/or college level to go on (or very minimal farm experience). I realize one has to utilize some sort of tool/methodology, do the best one can with the resources available - they're just not very reliable IMO - so some are going to slip through the cracks.
But that uncertainty (risk) involved certainly makes it open for trades in the right situation. Not going up possibly kill a deal at improving my team, acquiring a greater established asset, over an unproven prospect who may/may not be something some day.
"In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)
malcontent (10-20-2019),Old school 1983 (10-21-2019)
Trades of prospects for 1 year players are almost ALWAYS going to be have higher upside for the team receiving prospects. The whole point is that the team receiving the 1 year player is much more certain to get the limited upside performance.
That's why Luis Castillo for Dan Straily or Eugenio Suarez for Alfredo Simon look so great in hindsight. It's not that the Marlins and Tigers didn't see the possibilities for Castillo and Suarez, but rather they were willing to trade the low percentage(in their mind) upsides in exchange for more certain performance from veteran pitchers.
This comes to the one legitimate criticism of the trade, no matter how it turns out. If you're selling possibility for a limited but more certain performance, make sure that the limited performance accomplishes something. In other words, if the front office can point to 2019 as the year the pitching renaissance started in Cincinnati, and that renaissance was helped by having some certainty in the rotation, then the front office can point to this trade as useful no matter how great of a career Tanner Rainey goes on to have. If 2019 goes down as the year the Reds finished 4th instead of 5th for the only time in 10 years, then the deal is a failure even if Tanner Rainey never throws another pitch in the majors.
malcontent (10-21-2019)
Sea Ray, the problem I have is you state a subjective opinion as fact and denigrate the use of statistics as a value method. I pulled your previous posts on Rainey. You then follow that up with you had not seen him pitch in the minor leagues. That means your sample size was 7 innings with the Reds, and I'm guessing less than that with the Nats. To make your case, you shredded Stephenson, calling him the 12th man out of the pen, when in fact, he was better this year than pretty much every Nats pitcher in the pen. Including Rainey. You refuse to acknowledge how bad the Nats pen is, instead pointing to a nebulous "He has the Manager's trust" argument that you can neither prove nor have it disproved.
With a prior sample of 7 innings you can't definitively state he has an "improved" this or that pitch. Because you don't really know the difference between then and now. You have not posted or pointed to video of him in 2018 vs 2019 to show the difference. So if anything you are going by memory. But... If he's that much better this year than last, why were his peripherals right in line with his career numbers in the minors?
He is exactly who the Reds thought he was. A hard thrower with control issues, and one they felt (rightly) that was at age 26, replaceable.
The 2019 Reds did not have a great bullpen. They did have a fantastic rotation though, one that stacks up well against the two teams in the World Series. Tanner Rainey wasn't the difference in the Reds not making the post season. The offense was.
Tanner Rainey is just a guy. If he pitches another 150 MLB innings, I'll be both surprised and happy for the guy. Personally, I think he's Japan bound. He'd be a legend there, and make a boatload of cash.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
cumberlandreds (10-22-2019),GAC (10-24-2019),MilotheMayor (10-22-2019),westofyou (10-22-2019),WrongVerb (10-22-2019)
Good stuff, TRF, and said what I tried to say more articulately. We all have opinions, and there is an art to expressing them in a way that is going to be understood by the audience in creating a meaningful discussion.
On to Hannah. You might at first glance, think he's a poor man's Billy Hamilton. He isn't. He's the destitute man's Jose Altuve. To be successful, he's going to have to take a huge step forward with his hit tool. He's listed a 5'9, so lets be real, he's probably 5'7, but at 185, that's stout. So some power potential might be there. His BABIP of .355 tells me he may be beating out some IF hits. So a speed component, but a TERRIBLE SB percentage.
Raw doesn't begin to describe what the stats are saying when coupled with his age and years as a pro. He left the CAL League for the FSL and his BA dropped 60 points. His BABIP almost 70.
So he's a lottery ticket. The stats say one thing. I haven't seen him play yet though. Mostly the Reds just got a body as they cleared a spot for Bauer.
Dubito Ergo Cogito Ergo Sum.
"Today was the byproduct of us thinking we can come back from anything." - Joey Votto after blowing a 10-1 lead and holding on for the 12-11 win on 8/25/2010.
Rainey has the potential to be a very good reliever. What's that worth going forward? I doubt this deal is Trevor Hoffman redux. Potentially he'll be a nice bullpen piece for a few years and perhaps even a closer. However, I think as hard as he throws, it's probable he's going to have Tommy John surgery in the near future. I'm reminded of that Rosenthal kid who was with StL - and the Nats earlier this year. Kid threw 100 and then I don't know if he had TJ surgery but thew Cards let him go and I know the Nats let him go this year after he couldn't get anyone out.
Ron Madden (10-22-2019),TRF (10-22-2019)
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