Scooter Gennett to Giants for PTBNL

[Griffey012]

I'm kinda surprised by the rapid decline of Scooter Gennett. He came over with no expectations and immediately burst onto the scene with a very good 2017. In 2018, he was an excellent player for the Reds. Last year, he battled injuries and struggled to get it going, putting up a pretty poor season.

But given his previous two seasons, I'm surprised by how little interest there has been around the league and how quickly the Reds were to dispose of him. I recognize he's only adequate defensively and that he wasn't coming cheap as the production improved, but the Reds only gave him 72 PA before unceremoniously shipping him to the Giants for next to nothing. This after posting 123 and 125 wRC+ in the previous seasons.

As a bat-first 2B, I realize he represents one of more fungible assets in the game (and even more so in the organization, given 2B depth). I suppose I just don't get a how quickly he fell from grace. He should be in prime production years, yet he seems to be an afterthought across the league. I imagine I sound like a Cincinnati homer, and on some level I get that he's not the guy you want to pin your playoff hopes to, but you could make a substantial claim he was the second or third best bat on some really productive Reds offenses. Just strikes me as odd as how quickly they were to give his PA to a middling prospect like VanMeter, especially when his replacement is a checking in a $16 million/year and has produced lesser (albeit more consistent) numbers.

The Reds were smart to open up playing time for VanMeter who was murdering AAA after a swing change. If VanMeter went gangbusters to end 2019, he may have been the answer for 2020. By keeping Gennett in tow we would have never learned that. And with Scooter being a pending FA, he was merely an option for 2020 like Moustakas or any other FA second baseman.

[Chip R]

It was a shame Scooter got hurt this spring. If he hadn't and had produced like he did the past two seasons, who knows, things may have been different. The Reds may have contended for a playoff spot and he may have been re-signed. But the Reds can't take a chance that his regression was temporary.

[M2]

It was a shame Scooter got hurt this spring. If he hadn't and had produced like he did the past two seasons, who knows, things may have been different. The Reds may have contended for a playoff spot and he may have been re-signed. But the Reds can't take a chance that his regression was temporary.

This ^

I was a Scooter stan while he was with the team, but he's going to be looking for a make-good contract/opportunity in 2020. My guess is he goes to the AL where he can DH a bit if his bat rebounds. I'll root for him, but no one's going to count him to be a foundational piece of their team at this juncture.

[westofyou]

Here's a slice of Scooters peers over the last 50 years, sorted by FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average)

29 and under less than 5000 PA's

Note Scooter is at the bottom, right above the player that made an error in the World Series and Finley... well read it for yourself

CAREER
1969-2019
Middle INF
AGE <= 29
AVERAGE displayed only--not a sorting criteria
OBA vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
SLG vs. the league average displayed only--not a sorting criteria
OPS BETWEEN .730 AND .780
PLATE APPEARANCES < 5000

FRAA                              FRAA        AVG     OBA-LG     SLG-LG        OPS         PA   
1    DJ LeMahieu                    53       .298       .003      -.048       .756       3799   Cubs/Rockies
2    Jean Segura                    49       .286       .000      -.018       .733       4439   Angels/Brewers/Diamondbacks/Mariners/Phillies
3    Jose Valentin                  48       .240      -.029      -.020       .744       2768   Brewers
4    Orlando Hudson                 46       .278      -.002      -.003       .773       3031   Blue Jays/Diamondbacks
5    J.J. Hardy                     40       .259      -.021       .006       .740       3953   Brewers/Twins/Orioles
6    Jason Bartlett                 39       .287       .016      -.032       .744       2269   Twins/Rays
7    Aaron Hill                     33       .266      -.013      -.002       .738       3377   Blue Jays/Diamondbacks
8    Yunel Escobar                  31       .282       .020      -.027       .743       3311   Braves/Blue Jays
9    Adam Kennedy                   30       .281      -.006      -.031       .733       3295   Cardinals/Angels
10   Jody Reed                      27       .280       .020      -.042       .730       3067   Red Sox
11   Jay Bell                       26       .267       .006      -.012       .733       4578   Indians/Pirates
12   Alexei Ramirez                 20       .279      -.012       .005       .745       2425   White Sox
13   Julio Lugo                     19       .276       .001      -.033       .739       3310   Astros/Rays
T14  Bill Doran                     18       .276       .033      -.006       .745       3375   Astros
T14  Mark Ellis                     18       .270       .010      -.023       .746       2012   A's
T16  Brian Roberts                  17       .281       .014      -.020       .760       3672   Orioles
T16  Marcus Semien                  17       .258       .012       .024       .760       3058   A's
18   Bobby Grich                    16       .259       .049       .021       .763       4160   Orioles/Angels
T19  Howie Kendrick                 15       .293       .007       .018       .761       3462   Angels
T19  Quilvio Veras                  15       .272       .042      -.065       .738       2998   Marlins/Padres/Braves
21   Jonathan Schoop                13       .257      -.027       .028       .744       3104   Orioles/Brewers/Twins
T22  Mike Lansing                   11       .274      -.020      -.009       .742       2273   Expos
T22  Rougned Odor                   11       .240      -.041       .001       .733       3286   Rangers
24   Jhonny Peralta                 10       .272      -.001       .018       .776       3629   Indians/Tigers
T25  Tony Fernandez                  9       .287       .011      -.003       .732       4942   Blue Jays/Padres
T25  Fernando Vina                   9       .283       .000      -.055       .736       2213   Mariners/Mets/Brewers
27   Jonathan Villar                 6       .261       .004      -.024       .736       3001   Astros/Brewers/Orioles
28   Eric Young                      5       .299       .008      -.035       .776       1776   Dodgers/Rockies
29   Placido Polanco                 4       .302       .008      -.008       .777       2372   Cardinals/Phillies/Tigers
30   Brian Dozier                    3       .246      -.001       .030       .762       3064   Twins
T31  Cesar Hernandez                 1       .278       .029      -.043       .743       3026   Phillies
T31  Jason Kipnis                    1       .272       .022       .004       .768       3364   Indians
33   Damion Easley                  -2       .264      -.001      -.002       .770       2696   Angels/Tigers
34   Jed Lowrie                     -3       .264       .004       .020       .759       1969   Red Sox/Astros/A's
35   Brandon Phillips               -4       .267      -.024       .002       .746       3691   Indians/Reds
T36  Tim Anderson                   -5       .276      -.016       .011       .738       2161   White Sox
T36  Gregg Jefferies                -5       .272       .006       .001       .732       1757   Mets
T36  Roy Smalley                    -5       .259       .016      -.011       .733       4360   Rangers/Twins/Yankees
T39  Logan Forsythe                 -8       .258       .015       .007       .733       2111   Padres/Rays
T39  Didi Gregorius                 -8       .264      -.008       .005       .742       3380   Reds/Diamondbacks/Yankees
T41  Tim Beckham                    -9       .249      -.016       .015       .733       1751   Rays/Orioles/Mariners
T41  Carlos Guillen                 -9       .286       .022      -.001       .778       2509   Mariners/Tigers
43   Ray Durham                    -10       .276       .006      -.008       .776       4684   White Sox
T44  Julio Franco                  -11       .295       .013      -.010       .737       3923   Phillies/Indians
T44  Davey Johnson                 -11       .269       .024       .017       .742       2190   Orioles
T46  Ron Belliard                  -12       .269       .000      -.033       .749       3098   Brewers/Rockies/Indians
T46  Felipe Lopez                  -12       .270       .002      -.032       .739       4078   Blue Jays/Reds/Nationals/Cardinals/Diamondbacks/Brewers
48   Carlos Baerga                 -14       .298      -.007       .023       .775       3967   Indians/Mets
T49  Jeff Blauser                  -15       .262       .012      -.013       .753       3156   Braves
T49  Jim Fregosi                   -15       .261       .022       .015       .747       1763   Angels
51   Daniel Murphy                 -17       .288       .012       .013       .734       1951   Mets
T52  Ian Desmond                   -18       .264      -.015       .011       .736       3793   Nationals
T52  Tim Teufel                    -18       .265       .017       .018       .760       2207   Twins/Mets
T52  Neil Walker                   -18       .273       .018       .035       .772       3386   Pirates
T55  Juan Samuel                   -20       .261      -.021       .032       .745       4119   Phillies/Dodgers
T55  Rickie Weeks                  -20       .251       .015       .007       .779       4015   Brewers
T57  Wil Cordero                   -21       .279      -.008       .005       .761       1902   Expos/Red Sox
T57  Stephen Drew                  -21       .265      -.013       .011       .762       3417   Diamondbacks/A's
59   Asdrubal Cabrera              -22       .267       .007       .003       .740       4622   Indians/Nationals/Rays
60   Scooter Gennett               -31       .286       .000       .024       .776       2910   Brewers/Reds/Giants
61   Mike Andrews                  -37       .258       .020       .009       .745       2269   Red Sox/White Sox/A's
62   Jorge Orta                    -43       .286       .011       .034       .759       2880   White Sox

[mth123]

Championship teams rarely rely on big question marks to provide significant production. Relying on Gennett would be doing just that.

I suspect the biggest reason people are still arguing for Gennett is out of a sense of sentimentality because he was a very likable guy who did produce in 2017 and 2018. What we should be doing is wishing him well in his future endeavors and enjoying what the team will be in 2020.

The question is whether you'd rather have Didi and Gennett (or somebody else with some offensive history like Dozier, Zobrist, etc) or Galvis and Moustakas. Didi and Gennett gives you the chance to have two above average bats in the line-up. Had they been able to spend the big to ticket money at another position, 2B had a lot of buy low guys who could end up being significantly better than Galvis will. The Moustakas/Galvis combo guarantees at least one well below average bat in the line-up. Scooter could probably have been had for less than Galvis and Didi for less than Moustakas. That $4 or so million of savings could have gone towards the bullpen.

I'm happy with Moustakas though. He definitely helps the reds. I just think they are still locked into too many line-up spots that could be awful. Galvis, Barnhart, Aquino, maybe Senzel and even Votto to be honest. Two of those spots are almost 100% certain to be below average. They really need all the others to come through to be a serious play-off caliber team. I think they need to remove a couple of the question marks or known below average guys and replace them with guys we know can hit.

[Tom Servo]

The question is whether you'd rather have Didi and Gennett (or somebody else with some offensive history like Dozier, Zobrist, etc) or Galvis and Moustakas. Didi and Gennett gives you the chance to have two above average bats in the line-up. Had they been able to spend the big to ticket money at another position, 2B had a lot of buy low guys who could end up being significantly better than Galvis will. The Moustakas/Galvis combo guarantees at least one well below average bat in the line-up. Scooter could probably have been had for less than Galvis and Didi for less than Moustakas. That $4 or so million of savings could have gone towards the bullpen.

I'll play Devil's Advocate here and point out Galvis was better in 2019 than Didi was.

[BillDoran]

Championship teams rarely rely on big question marks to provide significant production. Relying on Gennett would be doing just that.

Those words are fun to say, but at present the Reds have an entire outfield of question marks. The bullpen needs significant reinforcements as well. Another rotation arm would probably be advised as well, if we're talking championships. And if you don't want to bet on Scooter, 2B is still the deepest position in the organization. You can shuffle through VanMeter, Blandino and possibly India; all better internal depth options than what's available in the outfield or bullpen.

However, iff Moustakas provides one thing, it's consistency. He's been a 110-120 wRC+ for the bulk of his career. I just think it's worth noting that Gennett outplayed him in 2017 and 2018, yet the Reds were willing to speed fairly big on Moose, while showing no appetite for Scooter's second (or third) act.

And that's why I exhumed the thread. I thought it was curious the Reds were quick to offload Scooter and give VaMeter a chance, then pay the FA premium for Moustakas. I'm not opposed to the signing, but given the holes on the team, it's probably not the investment I make. But there's a reason Dick Williams is in the decision chair (and that reason is nepotism, jk).

[mth123]

I'll play Devil's Advocate here and point out Galvis was better in 2019 than Didi was.

Didi was injured, got a late start with no spring training and was well worse than his norms. Galvis was his same awful self. Didi could be well above average. If he doesn't bounce back, he's still probably what we can optimistically expect from Galvis.

[Tom Servo]

Didi was injured, got a late start with no spring training and was well worse than his norms. Galvis was his same awful self. Didi could be well above average. If he doesn't bounce back, he's still probably what we can optimistically expect from Galvis.

Galvis will not be mistaken for being in the top echelon of shortstops, but if he's your worst hitter you aren't in very bad shape. He has one trick on offense, hitting for power, and he did it well in 2019. Now if you have Barnhart too in the lineup and one of other regulars regresses, then there could be an issue, but that's a separate issue from judging Galvis purely as a player.

For the longest time one of your biggest issues was the lack of a decent glove at SS. I think you even said at one point you'd take Alfredo Rodriguez OPSing in the .500s over having Peraza playing there. Galvis has a pretty good glove, and so maybe your position has changed but it still strikes me as weird that the possibility of Galvis as the starting SS has become such a big bugaboo to you.

[westofyou]

FYI - Freddy Galvis is not saving anyone's bacon

[Griffey012]

Didi was injured, got a late start with no spring training and was well worse than his norms. Galvis was his same awful self. Didi could be well above average. If he doesn't bounce back, he's still probably what we can optimistically expect from Galvis.

Didi also has 1 standout year, 1 above average year, then the rest worse than league average. He’s not without a lot of risk at the price he is likely to command.

[Griffey012]

Those words are fun to say, but at present the Reds have an entire outfield of question marks. The bullpen needs significant reinforcements as well. Another rotation arm would probably be advised as well, if we're talking championships. And if you don't want to bet on Scooter, 2B is still the deepest position in the organization. You can shuffle through VanMeter, Blandino and possibly India; all better internal depth options than what's available in the outfield or bullpen.


However, iff Moustakas provides one thing, it's consistency. He's been a 110-120 wRC+ for the bulk of his career. I just think it's worth noting that Gennett outplayed him in 2017 and 2018, yet the Reds were willing to speed fairly big on Moose, while showing no appetite for Scooter's second (or third) act.

And that's why I exhumed the thread. I thought it was curious the Reds were quick to offload Scooter and give VaMeter a chance, then pay the FA premium for Moustakas. I'm not opposed to the signing, but given the holes on the team, it's probably not the investment I make. But there's a reason Dick Williams is in the decision chair (and that reason is nepotism, jk).

If Moose missed a big chunk of last year and performed terribly when he played, I can promise you the Reds would not have given him the contract they did. I’m also still not convinced VanMeter doesn’t become a real hitter at some position. I wish Scooter stayed healthy, continued what he was doing, and was our second baseman on a reasonable contract. But that just didn’t happen.

Blandino and India aren’t real options.

[mth123]

Galvis will not be mistaken for being in the top echelon of shortstops, but if he's your worst hitter you aren't in very bad shape. He has one trick on offense, hitting for power, and he did it well in 2019. Now if you have Barnhart too in the lineup and one of other regulars regresses, then there could be an issue, but that's a separate issue from judging Galvis purely as a player.

For the longest time one of your biggest issues was the lack of a decent glove at SS. I think you even said at one point you'd take Alfredo Rodriguez OPSing in the .500s over having Peraza playing there. Galvis has a pretty good glove, and so maybe your position has changed but it still strikes me as weird that the possibility of Galvis as the starting SS has become such a big bugaboo to you.

But Didi is a good glove as well. The big change is the Reds offense fell off the table. Votto is below average. Senzel disappointed. Scooter crashed and is gone (though Moustakas is good so that's a wash). Aquino is a huge question who could as easily OPS+ something like Billy Hamilton as be productive. The team has three decent bats (thanks to the Moustakas signing). They need three more. That could be Votto, Senzel and Aquino, but with Barnhart and Galvis, there is no margin for error. Those guys are known drags on the offense. IMO, upgrading one (or two) of those positions is the best defense against one of the other three going completely south. People act like Votto and Senzel are strengths, but both were below average last year. Aquino was basically one unprecedented and likely unrepeatable month.

As for Defense at SS, I'd prefer a good glove there, but they really don't need to pay $5.5 Million for a glove who will likely have an OBP below .300. They got Jose Iglesias last year for half that. He's not a good bat, but I'd bet his OBP is better than Galvis will have. IMO, people are chalking up Galvis for the year that Aquino will more likely have. .300 OBP with 25 HR. I expect Galvis more in the .285 OBP range. He's not worth the money and there will be guys with similar value out there in February. The Reds should have saved the cash and used it to aim higher. If Galvis is the plan, they can find it for half that right before spring training. In the meantime, I hope for a lot better.