Musing on the state of the minors August 2019

[Tom Servo]

Downs was 2 for 4 with an RBI and a run in his debut. This kid is just a playmaker. On the year he is:
272, 356, 507, 863 OPS. 19 homers 23 steals. 97 Ks 54 walks. Super exciting prospect. Two years younger than India. I honestly think he’d be our top position prospect. Probably 3 overall with Gray right with him. Sure fire top 5.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...ts-chat-80719/

Kyle Glaser: Downs is a good player who has a big league future, but he's not Top 100 level. There's a lot of swings and misses there (the strikeout total isn't overly high, but there's a lot of early count swings and misses that put him in some holes) and the quality of his ABs is really, really inconsistent, even in the context of a guy in his age 20 season in the Cal League. He's a good player, but he profiles as more of an everyday utilityman (kind of similar to the role Enrique Hernandez fills for the Dodgers now) than a true everyday player. Again, a good player who is very valuable to a big league team - but not a Top 100 guy as a prospect.

[SoTxRedsFan]

Greene, Lodolo, India, Stephenson, Garcia, Callihan, Siani, Hinds, Lyon Richardson, and Hannah is probably my top 10 at the moment. Wouldn't take much convincing to have Lodolo over Greene though.

[WrongVerb]

Greene, Lodolo, India, Stephenson, Garcia, Callihan, Siani, Hinds, Lyon Richardson, and Hannah is probably my top 10 at the moment. Wouldn't take much convincing to have Lodolo over Greene though.

Fair list, though I'd replace Hinds with Ivan Johnson for now. I want to see some production from Hinds. Fairchild would probably be on my list.

Lodolo
Greene
Stephenson
Garcia
India
Callihan
Fairchild
Richardson
Johnson

Next 5:
Santillan
Hannah
Friedl
Siani
Naughton

[Bourgeois Zee]

This season has been a major revelation for young, controllable talent at the major league level.

Senzel, Aquino, Ervin, and VanMeter have all established themselves as bone fide major leaguers. Stephenson and Sims look like solid bullpen arms as well. The jury's still out on Reed, Kuhnel, Herget, and Alaniz, but at least three of the four look promising. O'Grady might stake out a fifth OF/ CF-capable/ backup 1B spot. Blandino might become a middle infield utility guy again.

Beyond that, there doesn't appear to be much of anything.

Of course, there's also the question of what the parent club will need. At this point, what holes need to be addressed?

[Mitri]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...ts-chat-80719/

Nick
1:13 How has Jeter Downs' defense looked this season and what position do you think he ends up at (either in LA or elsewhere)?
Kiley McDaniel
1:14 Still likely 2B and he is also moving up, just figuring out where this week

[Bourgeois Zee]

[QUOTE=WrongVerb;4008420]Fair list, though I'd replace Hinds with Ivan Johnson for now. I want to see some production from Hinds. Fairchild would probably be on my list.

1. Hunter Greene
Upside trumps nearly everything, and recent TJ success makes me sanguine about his chances to be an ace.

2. Nick Lodolo
I suspect he'll be pushed pretty aggressively, beginning in A+ (next to Greene? Possibly.) to AA next season, but I've been wrong before. Looks like a solid contributor and MOR guy.

3. Tyler Stephenson
He gets little respect, but looks like everything you want in a top 100 prospect. He has a high floor and upside beyond. Wouldn't shock me to see him go Mickey Tettleton on AAA next year.

4. Jonathan India
He's not been bad this year, but he's not been great either. Serviceable starter at 3B or 2B, at this point. Which is nice, I guess. Upside power and a BA that should be better than it is.

5. Jose Israel Garcia
Underrated season, largely because of league-wide offensive woes. He looks like he'll probably be able to stick at SS and has shown a massive jump in power despite the league in which he plays. Young too. Probably the most exciting player on the top 10 list, he has a low floor too.

6. Tony Santillan
Sometimes, pitchers struggle. He's struggled this year after pitching well at the same level last season. Still, Santillan is young and has big-time upside.

7. Stuart Fairchild
The last of the AA guys in the top 10, he's been a pleasant surprise for me. I'd nearly written him off due to a lack of power and struggles last season. He's bounced back to show pop and a superior glove in CF. Willing to take a walk and get hit (11 HBP) means he doesn't have to have a great hit tool. (And he doesn't.) I'd love to see him really try to use his speed as a weapon. As is, he's probably the CF heir apparent. It'll be a battle between he and India, with Senzel moving to 2B or sticking in CF as early as next August.

8. Lyon Richardson
Lost in a horrid first two months, Richardson's righted himself and shown a solid upside. At home, he has an ERA under 2.00. His peripherals have shown improvement every month, but he still allows too many hits. Nice to see the improvement, but he has a long way to go.

9. Packy Naughton
I struggled with where to put Naughton. He doesn't walk many. He strikes hitters out at a decent clip. He doesn't allow a ton of hits. He's been productive and logs innings. Were this just about production, he might rank higher on the list. But his stuff varies from well below league average to slightly interesting. Still, a BOR SP candidate at #9 on this list should be a sign of how solid the upper minors might well be.

10. Tyler Callihan
His speed numbers-- 8 SB and a bunch of legged-out triples-- would seem to show more tool than what's being reported. But his lack of patience is an issue for me. At 19, he's holding his own in Greeneville. That's cool. Love that he might have upside as both a power and speed guy. Love that he's playing 2B right now and doesn't seem to be a train wreck. For a professional hitters whose hit tool was supposed to be well above average, he's not set the world on fire.

Others of note:
Rece Hinds
Good pop. Will have to be patient. I hate being patient.

Jameson Hannah
Good BA/ patience. Needs to show power, speed.

Michael Siani
He's small, young, and powerless. Needs at least one of those to improve. Perhaps all three.

Jose Acosta
Love looking him up each day and seeing that high BA. I'm a sucker for speed and a .350 BA.

Eric Yang
Big-time production in the Pioneer League. Would have preferred he be challenged with Dayton.

Ivan Johnson
Tools to be a league average starter. Long way to go.

Scott Free
Very productive in small amount of ABs. One of three or four catchers who might be above average hitters, but have questions.

Fidel Castro
Most productive bat in AZL lineup who's still under 20. Should see more love or lead a revolution.

Jared Solomon
Often ignored, Solomon has good scouting reports and was good in Dayton before being moved up to Daytona, where he's been meh. Too many walks, but otherwise not bad. Upside sleeper.

Jose Siri
Tools. Lots and lots and lots of tools.

TJ Friedl
Hurt and decent in AA. We'll see what happens next year.

Vlad Gutierrez
Ick. Needs to be moved to relief, where he should be able to dial up a fastball and curve combo.

Debby Santana
Doesn't walk. That's troubling. Still hitting .300. That's good.

Wendell Marrero
Not much love, but he was a stud in 120 AZL PAs: .324/ .425/ .490/ .915. Lots of swing and miss so far, but the power looks good even as an 18 year old.

Chadwick Tromp
All he does is hit at an above average clip. (Okay, not really.) You could do far worse as a backup catcher.

Joel Kuhnel
Might well be a closer as early as next year.

[Boston Red]

Wynne is 26 in low A. I'm rooting for him, but he's got a long way to go to convince me he's got something.

Wynne has been mostly bad in his 12 relief appearances (other than his last one in which he went 7.2 shutout innings). However, as a starter it's now 14 innings, 6 H, 1 R (earned), 0 BB and 22 K.

Hey, why not?!?

[BillDoran]

8. Lyon Richardson
Lost in a horrid first two months, Richardson's righted himself and shown a solid upside. At home, he has an ERA under 2.00. His peripherals have shown improvement every month, but he still allows too many hits. Nice to see the improvement, but he has a long way to go.

Good list.

One quick takeaway: Richardson likely had a better season than most realized. Tasty peripherals (netting a 3.55 xFIP) for a guy three years younger than the league average. Not yet 20. There could still be some physical projection left as well.

[Alabama]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...ts-chat-80719/

Must have one heck of a two strike approach. I’d hate to see Glasers take on some of our guys. Talk about inconsistency, at least Downs gets results unlike any(literally any) of our guys below AAA have done.

[Brisco]

Just an update on a few of the guys who would be in probably our top 7 prospects had they not been traded.
Downs got promoted to AA, his first game was against the Sod Poodles and featured, Downs, Gray, and Trammel.
Gray appears to be on a pitch limit. He went 4.1 giving up 1 run and striking out 6. On the year he has a 2.1 ERA, 136 Ks in 124 innings while only walking 27. 136 to 27 will play. He’d be our top pitching prospect depending on how you value Green and Lodolo.
Downs was 2 for 4 with an RBI and a run in his debut. This kid is just a playmaker. On the year he is:
272, 356, 507, 863 OPS. 19 homers 23 steals. 97 Ks 54 walks. Super exciting prospect. Two years younger than India. I honestly think he’d be our top position prospect. Probably 3 overall with Gray right with him. Sure fire top 5.
Trammel was 1 for 4 and I’m not sure when or if he’s going to turn it on. His star has fallen hard

Please just stop. Anyone who reads this board even once a month knows your thoughts on the prospects traded. Every post now just seems to be another attempt at an "I told you so." Imagine being the guy at the party who only has one line to say... it irritates everyone else there, but all he does is keep repeating it, but changes the order of the words.


I am not trying to insult you in any way... just making you aware of how what you are doing appears to the casual observer. This is a fun board for Reds fans... try to keep it that way.


Just my 2 cents. Brisco

[Rdirtypirates]

Please just stop. Anyone who reads this board even once a month knows your thoughts on the prospects traded. Every post now just seems to be another attempt at an "I told you so." Imagine being the guy at the party who only has one line to say... it irritates everyone else there, but all he does is keep repeating it, but changes the order of the words.


I am not trying to insult you in any way... just making you aware of how what you are doing appears to the casual observer. This is a fun board for Reds fans... try to keep it that way.


Just my 2 cents. Brisco

I agree, also I find it odd that he hates the prospects when they are in the Reds system but loves them as soon as they leave. Almost like he is trolling. I enjoy reading this site except for a few select users who shall remain nameless. Roll tide

[HokieRed]

Good list.

One quick takeaway: Richardson likely had a better season than most realized. Tasty peripherals (netting a 3.55 xFIP) for a guy three years younger than the league average. Not yet 20. There could still be some physical projection left as well.

Agree. Love the K/W ratio. Also impressive: 4 HRs in last 63 innings.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

My top 10:

1. Lodolo
2. Tyler Stephenson
3. Greene
4. Garcia
5. India
6. Siani
7. Santillan
8. Callihan
9. Richardson
10.Fairchild

[BillDoran]

My top 10:

1. Lodolo
2. Tyler Stephenson
3. Greene
4. Garcia
5. India
6. Siani
7. Santillan
8. Callihan
9. Richardson
10.Fairchild

One fun thing about the changes in the organizations will be voting on the top 10 prospects. It's wide open and lots of room for interpretation, including no consensus No. 1.

I keep reading others' lists and like them, but think "No, no. You've got this guy all wrong." Should make for some good offseason debate.

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Non-pitchers under age 21 that I’m intrigued by:

Wendell Marrero 18.268 (AZL Reds)
Darlin Guzman 18.330 (DSL Reds)
Rece Hinds 18.352 (Greeneville Reds)
Debby Santana 18.364 (AZL Reds)
Ty Callihan 19.062 (Greeneville Reds) **Top 10 list**
Jose Acosta 19.161 (AZL Reds)
Daniel Vellojin 19.161 (DSL Reds)
Allan Cerda 19.272 (Greeneville Reds)
Fidel Castro 20.240 (AZL Reds)
Ivan Johnson 20.316 (Greeneville Reds)