Freak Show Reds (By two of our own)

[BCubb2003]

We're going to see some oddities in the Reds' stats that are based on a pace or projections for the season. There's the freaky Manzanillo, ailing Anderson and Haynes part of the season that skews the stats, then came the solid Danny Graves, surprising no. 2 starter, strengthening bullpen, late-inning heroics part of the season. RILA is right, although rudely worded, to suggest that we should look closer at the two seasons the Reds have had so far. We should also look at the disparity between the games of the top 2 starters for the Reds, whoever they are, and the games of the rest of the starters. There's probably a huge drop-off. Maybe that's a sequel to what is actually a fun article.

[Redsfaithful]

Originally posted by LvJ
So much stats, so much nonsense.

Winning is the only thing that counts. Its not how you win, nor is it by how much you win, its that you win. The Reds are playing good ball right now, and they've beat some of the better teams in the NL.

I'm with LA on this one.

And, if you're a Reds fan, whats the point in writing this crap about your team? Garbage.

Let's ignore the fact that run differential is probably the greatest predictive tool as far as a team's record.

There's a real anti-intellectual bias in America for some reason, and it's funny how it even carries over into baseball discussions.

[M2]

Originally posted by BCubb2003
We're going to see some oddities in the Reds' stats that are based on a pace or projections for the season. There's the freaky Manzanillo, ailing Anderson and Haynes part of the season that skews the stats, then came the solid Danny Graves, surprising no. 2 starter, strengthening bullpen, late-inning heroics part of the season. RILA is right, although rudely worded, to suggest that we should look closer at the two seasons the Reds have had so far. We should also look at the disparity between the games of the top 2 starters for the Reds, whoever they are, and the games of the rest of the starters. There's probably a huge drop-off. Maybe that's a sequel to what is actually a fun article.

That's the hope BCubb.

The key sentence to me is "An early season run deficit does not equal fate."

The Reds have dodged a bullet (actually more like a mortar). That's good news. Just don't try doing it again.

[Raisor]

Originally posted by LvJ
So much stats, so much nonsense.

Winning is the only thing that counts. Its not how you win, nor is it by how much you win, its that you win. The Reds are playing good ball right now, and they've beat some of the better teams in the NL.

.

Let me ask you a simple simple question.


How is a team supposed to win, in the long run (ie, over a 162 game schedule) when said team is being outscored by that much per game?

PSR

[Chip R]

Originally posted by LvJ
And, if you're a Reds fan, whats the point in writing this crap about your team? Garbage.

So you enjoy going through life with blinders on?

[LvJ]

Originally posted by Raisor
Let me ask you a simple simple question.


How is a team supposed to win, in the long run (ie, over a 162 game schedule) when said team is being outscored by that much per game?

PSR

Blow outs effect these stats greatly. When the Reds are playing their best ball, they are close - and they playing 1 run games.

I just don't like these stats. They mean very little, since team changes, and things change over time.

[Raisor]

Originally posted by M2
The Reds are at a -2 run differential since going 5-13. So they've played above expectations during this most recent stretch.

.

M2, as of today, they're at -9 since the 5-13 start..

81-130 vs 180-189


PSR

[BuckeyeRedleg]

"Technically they should be 21-31 at the moment"





They are 25-27.

We're talking 4 games. Big deal.

Take away a few walk-off HR's and they probably WOULD BE 21-31 right now.



Weren't they horribly outscored last year at this time as well, despite a above 500 record?

It's called lack of pitching.

[letsgojunior]

Excellent work guys, ignore the potshots.

[Raisor]

Originally posted by red-in-la
And by how many runs have they been outscored since?

Then compute the "pace" based on how they have played since going 5-13.....

If you look at how many runs per game the Reds have scored since the 5-13 start (5.29/game), the Reds will score 582 more runs this year and give up 612 more runs, a -30 diff.

That would make the team -79 for the whole year.

It's really hard to make the playoffs when you're outscored by 79 runs for the year.

PSR

[red-in-la]

RILA is right, although rudely worded

OK, I apologized for my rude language.....how about "two of our own" apologizing for their 40 point pronouncement, "Freakshow Reds"

This is the REAL burr under MY saddle. Other than Chip posting the link without even letting us Redszone amatuers in on M2 and WOY's association with BP.

Now I know why WOY wanted me to fork over my hard earned bucks for a subscription a couple of months ago.

Anyway, I find it rather disheartening when "Reds fans" resort to this kind of billboard "journalism to sell e-copies of their "information and insight."

And yes M2, with....what did you call it, "a small amount of enterprise" I could have looked up the REST OF THE STORY......yeh, and you could have also and maybe put it in your article.....but I wanted to see if you knew the information, which clearly you did.

And your your point about ignoring the larger sample size is total BS. A journalist would have included how the Reds have played SINCE their awful start.....

[Chip R]

Originally posted by red-in-la
This is the REAL burr under MY saddle. Other than Chip posting the link without even letting us Redszone amatuers in on M2 and WOY's association with BP.

Well, sor-ry. I wasn't aware of any association they had with BP. I wasn't posting it to pimp BP, I was posting it because 2 of our "local boys" have made good. When you get something on line and I find it, I would be more than happy to post it.

[M2]

Originally posted by red-in-la
OK, I apologized for my rude language.....how about "two of our own" apologizing for their 40 point pronouncement, "Freakshow Reds"

This is the REAL burr under MY saddle. Other than Chip posting the link without even letting us Redszone amatuers in on M2 and WOY's association with BP.

Now I know why WOY wanted me to fork over my hard earned bucks for a subscription a couple of months ago.

Anyway, I find it rather disheartening when "Reds fans" resort to this kind of billboard "journalism to sell e-copies of their "information and insight."

And yes M2, with....what did you call it, "a small amount of enterprise" I could have looked up the REST OF THE STORY......yeh, and you could have also and maybe put it in your article.....but I wanted to see if you knew the information, which clearly you did.

And your your point about ignoring the larger sample size is total BS. A journalist would have included how the Reds have played SINCE their awful start.....

Hey, I don't tell you how to flip the hamburgers.

Quick note on our "association" with BP, this is the first time either of us has done a thing for BP. They also don't pay contributors, only staff gets coin.

So you don't have to worry about inadvertently giving your money to folks like me or WOY.

And what's not freaky about having the worst run differential of any .500 or better team after a quarter season in baseball history? Let me stress NO TEAM'S EVER DONE THIS. Kind of heady stuff when you get right down to it.

[BCubb2003]

Hey, freak shows can be fun. And I think the barbs are past and we're back to arguing about stats. Pace-type declarations are always somewhat of a grain-of-salt thing, even for those making them. Otherwise, there'd be a .400 hitter or a 60-homer guy every year. We really do need to think about the pre-Puerto Rico Reds and the post-Puerto Rico Reds. It's a different team, without Manzanillo and guys with ERAS above 12.00.

I feel like the catcher trying to keep the batter away from the pitcher after a brushback pitch.

[Raisor]

Originally posted by M2

So you don't have to worry about inadvertently giving your money to folks like me or WOY.

Thank goodness! I don't think I could live with myself if M2 and WOY were making any money off me.