Freak Show Reds (By two of our own)

[traderumor]

M2 and WOY,

Despite RILs bitterness, I must admit that I have lost many debates to you two because you deal with facts, while many of us just want to spew our opinions regardless of the the facts and then say "grumph, statistics--you can make em say anything you want."

Fact is, anyone who follows this team has to be amazed at the W-L record despite what the numbers are saying. Pretty soon, enough of the season will have been played so folks can quit crying for the Manzanillo factor (our pitching still stinks with or without his numbers) to be accounted for, and we will still be amazed that despite our team ERA hovering in the 5.50 range, its the All Star Break, we're 40-42 and 5 games out of first. We'll still be trying to figure out what stud pitcher we can trade for with the Castro-Stinnett-Casey package deal (who could turn that down), and we'll be riding our tied for the season high 5 game winning streak. Our run differential at that point will prob still be in the 50s range (notwithstanding the Manzanillo factor or the Puerto Rico factor). Maybe we could include the Boone factor, and heck, we'd be undefeated at this point since every loss has been his fault somehow thus far.

[Stormy]

A very interesting article, and the statistical research really puts it into a nice historical perspective. It's nice to see some exploration into records and numbers which seem anomalous.

I may be wrong, but I believe that when M2 and WOY started compiling this piece, the Reds were still on the 500+ upswing which preceeded much of the recent 4 of 5 losing skid. So, at the outset the disparity looked even more "freakishly" skewed than it does now.

Again, a really enjoyable and insightful read. Thanks fellas.

[M2]

BTW, thanks to those who've said kind words (and even those who haven't).

The purpose of a piece like this is to impart a little information, to entertain and to get people thinking.

When someone like BCubb, who is a great writer, gives you props on your prose, it's a good day. Same goes with plenty of others,

I was flattered that BP thought it was worth running. I'm even more flattered that so many people I respect on this site gave it a compliment.

[creek14]

I guess I'm going to have to dump Dunn and Reitsma as the objects of my affection and become a M2 and WOY groupie. :hat:

Nice job, boys.

[red-in-la]

Just for the information, here's how every team in the majors are doing against their "expected number of wins" using the pythig thm.

Looks like the formula needs A LOT of work.....it appears to "predict 3 out of 30.

WOY, I have no distain....and I am not bitter.

I would however be willing to pay the price of the subscirption to see you and M2 show your article to Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Bob Boone and JR, in quiet little room with no press and a guarentee to them that what they thought of your little write up...especially the title, wouldn't leave the room.

I just think you could have made your historical, statistical points without the negative sensationalism.

And I found the the statement that the Reds record should "technically" be worse then it is to be just plain silly.

Technically, airplanes are dangerous because they crash and the engines are the cheapest ones available. Is this a responsable statement to print in an article with a headline of something like, "Airline passengers die by the thousands"?

Again, I think you took stats to your own use and got some ink out of trying to sensationalize a negative....especially one based on only a 33% sample size....

[BuckeyeRedleg]

Originally posted by westofyou
I went all the way back to 1903, no team has ever been 20-20 and had scored 50 less runs than their opponents. That's 1430 teams who have never done it.

That's a freak show.

Interesting. I guess that would be freakish then.

Great work!

[M2]

Originally posted by red-in-la
Looks like the formula needs A LOT of work.....it appears to "predict 3 out of 30.

WOY, I have no distain....and I am not bitter.

I would however be willing to pay the price of the subscirption to see you and M2 show your article to Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns, Bob Boone and JR, in quiet little room with no press and a guarentee to them that what they thought of your little write up...especially the title, wouldn't leave the room.

I just think you could have made your historical, statistical points without the negative sensationalism.

And I found the the statement that the Reds record should "technically" be worse then it is to be just plain silly.

Technically, airplanes are dangerous because they crash and the engines are the cheapest ones available. Is this a responsable statement to print in an article with a headline of something like, "Airline passengers die by the thousands"?

Again, I think you took stats to your own use and got some ink out of trying to sensationalize a negative....especially one based on only a 33% sample size....

Less caffeine perhaps.

You know what I think Adam Dunn would say?

"Who's Frank Lentini?"

"Three legs? Wow."

[TeamDunn]

Can I have ya'lls autograph?

[LvJ]

Wow, if one could get this much love for looking up some useless stats and then adding alot of negative comments about your own team, then we'd all be kings.

[Raisor]

Originally posted by red-in-la
Looks like the formula needs A LOT of work.....it appears to "predict 3 out of 30.

No one is saying that it's a perfect system, but over the last three years (all the energy I could find to put into looking), it's been accurate to within 3 games (or 2% of a 162 game season) 70% of the time.

That's not bad at predicting wins/losses. You take those odds if you go to Vegas.

[gm]

What the stats tell me is that when the Reds lose, they have a tendency to get stomped (first series against Pitts, the 3 blowouts in Chi-town, etc) and when they win it's by a small margin (record in 1-run games pretty good so far--will it last?)

The 2003 Reds have shown a tendency to comeback from deficits, so they shouldn't 'throw in the towel' and leave their starters/relievers in the game to get shelled...still, early in the season this scenario was happening at an alarming rate...hence the RS deficiency

[TeamDunn]

Originally posted by LvJ
Wow, if one could get this much love for looking up some useless stats and then adding alot of negative comments about your own team, then we'd all be kings.

Stick to the banners and I'll send you all the cyber love you want! :evilgrin: :smokin:

[Raisor]

Originally posted by LvJ
Wow, if one could get this much love for looking up some useless stats and then adding alot of negative comments about your own team, then we'd all be kings.

Yeah, Runs Scored and Runs Against are certainly "useless" stats.

[LvJ]

gm, we are a much different and better team since those blowouts, so those stats speak nothing but history IMO. How many blowouts have we lost in since the big shakeup? 1; and that was the Dempster game in Milwaukee.

[LvJ]

Originally posted by Raisor
Yeah, Runs Scored and Runs Against are certainly "useless" stats.

Not totally useless, but pretty close.

Wins are the only thing that counts.

TD,