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Thread: Time to blow it up!

  1. #61
    Marty Moose!! maniem's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Interesting article on one run losses:

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mariners-am...mes-c280909432


    Bill James states "One run games involve a huge amount of luck". Also, i found it interesting when Joe Posnanski states "As a rule, good teams lose more one-run games than normal and bad teams win more." I would have thought the exact opposite. The Giants this year have a 33-15 mark in one run games, yet are only 2 games ahead of the reds in the win column.

    BTW, record for most one run losses in a season is 44 by the 1968 White Sox. Record for most one-run wins in a season is 41 by the 1978 Giants.

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  3. #62
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    i know, it's borderline hilarious that people act like the reds have not been unlucky this year. yes, if you ignore the math, sure. but with math? the reds have been unquestionably unlucky.

    and this is without even counting the bad luck of alex wood being as healthy as current-day charlie sheen (not to be confused with rick "wild thing" vaughn).

  4. #63
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by JFLegal View Post
    i know, it's borderline hilarious that people act like the reds have not been unlucky this year. yes, if you ignore the math, sure. but with math? the reds have been unquestionably unlucky.

    and this is without even counting the bad luck of alex wood being as healthy as current-day charlie sheen (not to be confused with rick "wild thing" vaughn).
    Yet, other than Wood, they’ve been very lucky on the health front. Maybe they were unlucky or maybe they had a really bad bullpen.

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  6. #64
    Someday Never Comes mth123's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Falls City Beer View Post
    Yet, other than Wood, they’ve been very lucky on the health front. Maybe they were unlucky or maybe they had a really bad bullpen.
    Scooter? Winker? Senzel?


    I think the offense is still the number one problem. While I agree that they need 2 or 3 new relievers, the offense is the main culprit and has even contributed to the bullpen problems. A lot of close games with a lot of pitching changes and no add on runs to put games away have contributed to a lot of the bullpen problems.

    The Reds are 12th in the NL in runs scored. The teams behind them are the perennially tanking Marlins, the retooling with retreads Giants and the still growing up Padres. All three play in pitching oriented parks. Meanwhile, the Reds play in a park that almost creates runs all by itself. 12th in the NL in offense while playing in GABP isn't just bad. It's downright pitiful. No bullpen is going to hold up when every time a guy gets on base it brings the winning or tying run to the plate. It's why starters are pulled too early and why every run allowed leads to heartache. The Reds need a couple more relievers, but even if they add Chapman and Will Smith, the bullpen will still end up losing a ton of games if this offense isn't significantly improved in 2020. A team playing in GABP that isn't in the top 5 in runs scored in the NL is well below average. They should be in the top 3 or so every year playing there.
    Last edited by mth123; 09-11-2019 at 07:30 AM.
    "All I can tell them is pick a good one and sock it." --BABE RUTH

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  8. #65
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Agree on the offense being actually woeful. FO must learn not to overvalue its players offensively because of the effects of GABP. .750 hitting outfielders who have half their stats coming from GABP are not going to win for you consistently on the roads. Bill James made this point years ago about the Cubs and Wrigley: the Cubs' weakness involved systematically overrating their talent because they failed to adequately factor in hitting in Wrigley.

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  10. #66
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    S
    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Scooter? Winker? Senzel?


    I think the offense is still the number one problem. While I agree that they need 2 or 3 new relievers, the offense is the main culprit and has even contributed to the bullpen problems. A lot of close games with a lot of pitching changes and no add on runs to put games away have contributed to a lot of the bullpen problems.

    The Reds are 12th in the NL in runs scored. The teams behind them are the perennially tanking Marlins, the retooling with retreads Giants and the still growing up Padres. All three play in pitching oriented parks. Meanwhile, the Reds play in a park that almost creates runs all by itself. 12th in the NL in offense while playing in GABP isn't just bad. It's downright pitiful. No bullpen is going to hold up when every time a guy gets on base it brings the winning or tying run to the plate. It's why starters are pulled too early and why every run allowed leads to heartache. The Reds need a couple more relievers, but even if they add Chapman and Will Smith, the bullpen will still end up losing a ton of games if this offense isn't significantly improved in 2020. A team playing in GABP that isn't in the top 5 in runs scored in the NL is well below average. They should be in the top 3 or so every year playing there.
    There’s really no point in arguing which is the bigger problem. The Reds offense and bullpen need major improvement.

    This coming off-season is the moment of truth.

    Reds have been through a rebuild, they’ve traded from the farm, now they must use their cash and add high level veterans. Otherwise, I don’t see much light at the end of the tunnel.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-11-2019 at 09:45 AM.

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  12. #67
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by mth123 View Post
    Scooter? Winker? Senzel?


    I think the offense is still the number one problem. While I agree that they need 2 or 3 new relievers, the offense is the main culprit and has even contributed to the bullpen problems. A lot of close games with a lot of pitching changes and no add on runs to put games away have contributed to a lot of the bullpen problems.

    The Reds are 12th in the NL in runs scored. The teams behind them are the perennially tanking Marlins, the retooling with retreads Giants and the still growing up Padres. All three play in pitching oriented parks. Meanwhile, the Reds play in a park that almost creates runs all by itself. 12th in the NL in offense while playing in GABP isn't just bad. It's downright pitiful. No bullpen is going to hold up when every time a guy gets on base it brings the winning or tying run to the plate. It's why starters are pulled too early and why every run allowed leads to heartache. The Reds need a couple more relievers, but even if they add Chapman and Will Smith, the bullpen will still end up losing a ton of games if this offense isn't significantly improved in 2020. A team playing in GABP that isn't in the top 5 in runs scored in the NL is well below average. They should be in the top 3 or so every year playing there.
    - Ervin and Aquino have played better than Winker. The amount Winker has to hit to generate positive value ought make him a prime trade candidate. Find an AL team that will move value for a DH. Senzel hasn't missed any large chunk of time. Scooter is the one who hurt. A healthy and productive Scooter earlier this season could have made a big difference.

    - The offense has been the chief offender this season. You're right this isn't nearly good enough. It had finished 8th in the NL in scoring each of the previous three seasons. They've got to shuffle the deck on that front.

    - That said, don't take the pitching for granted. The starting pitching has been the highlight of this season, but it could go back to being a problem child next season. Hopefully it won't, because the Reds pretty much have to operate on the premise Gray-Castillo-Bauer will form a solid core. As for the IP, I think they're going to yank SPs around 100 pitches regardless of what the offense has done.

    - A big endorsement for reworking the bullpen.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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  14. #68
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    - Ervin and Aquino have played better than Winker. The amount Winker has to hit to generate positive value ought make him a prime trade candidate. Find an AL team that will move value for a DH. Senzel hasn't missed any large chunk of time. Scooter is the one who hurt. A healthy and productive Scooter earlier this season could have made a big difference.
    What is Ervin better than Winker at besides hitting LHP?
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

  15. #69
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    What is Ervin better than Winker at besides hitting LHP?
    Staying on the field?

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  17. #70
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    What is Ervin better than Winker at besides hitting LHP?
    Catching baseballs, running the bases.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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    REDREAD (09-11-2019)

  19. #71
    Member Spanky's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by maniem View Post
    Interesting article on one run losses:

    https://www.mlb.com/news/mariners-am...mes-c280909432


    Bill James states "One run games involve a huge amount of luck". Also, i found it interesting when Joe Posnanski states "As a rule, good teams lose more one-run games than normal and bad teams win more." I would have thought the exact opposite. The Giants this year have a 33-15 mark in one run games, yet are only 2 games ahead of the reds in the win column.

    BTW, record for most one run losses in a season is 44 by the 1968 White Sox. Record for most one-run wins in a season is 41 by the 1978 Giants.
    So the Reds are the greatest team of all time these past 5 years? Nice!
    The television crews left and about 10 reporters remained in the room. That's when Price took his turn doing the talking.
    What followed was a five-minute, 34-second expletive-filled tirade. The final tally was 77 uses of the "F" word or a variant and 11 uses of a vulgar term for feces (two bovine, one equine).

  20. #72
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Catching baseballs, running the bases.
    I'll give you the latter, mostly for the speed element. But Ervin is a disaster on defense (his routinely airmailed throws standing out the most), that he gets a pass for it while Winker is scrutinized over nearly every play remains a bizarre Redszone phenomenon.
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

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  22. #73
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom Servo View Post
    I'll give you the latter, mostly for the speed element. But Ervin is a disaster on defense (his routinely airmailed throws standing out the most), that he gets a pass for it while Winker is scrutinized over nearly every play remains a bizarre Redszone phenomenon.
    Winker's defense also remains an advanced stat catastrophe. If you want to argue he wouldn't be completely terrible if confined solely to LF, there's a case for that. Yet if Winker were an MC, his name would be Young DH.
    Last edited by M2; 09-11-2019 at 11:00 AM.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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    REDREAD (09-11-2019)

  24. #74
    Member Tom Servo's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Winker's defense also remains an advanced stat catastrophe. If you want to argue he wouldn't be completely terrible if confined solely to LF, there's a case for that. Yet if Winkerr were an MC, his name would be Young DH.
    I don't disagree that Winker would benefit from some regular DH time and is a potential trade candidate. I just don't see where exactly Ervin has played better than Winker. Winker is the better hitter and they are both below average defensively.
    I dont care, Votto said of passing his friend and former teammate. Hes in the past. Bye-bye, Jay.

  25. #75
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Ervin and Winker actually look like a platoon match-made-in-heaven.

    I think that combo would give the team some serious offense from LF.


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