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Thread: Time to blow it up!

  1. #16
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    Can we translate “they have the money if they’d spend it” into the Reds owners could easily afford Cole, Rendon, Grandal and Will Smith, or must we again settle for decent but modest ambitions, such as Gregorious as the high side, plus Puig and Roark if we wanted them back? I’d like to put that kind of specific pressure on the Reds owners.
    The problem is that signing those guys will involve long term commitments and we don't want to get into another Homer Bailey or Joey Votto situation contract-wise

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  3. #17
    Member wlf WV's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    The time for moving good established MLB players for multiple excellent prospects is over, so what’s next?

    Take what’s offered, or just blow up for blow up’s sake?
    May the Lord bless

  4. #18
    Haunted by walks
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    The problem is that signing those guys will involve long term commitments and we don't want to get into another Homer Bailey or Joey Votto situation contract-wise
    True, but I wonder if that too is a product of that modest mindset we’ve all been used to. Would we feel that way if the Reds owners were deploying this stash that we’re convinced they have? Top free agents almost by definition are seeking long-term contracts. If not the guys I named, then who should the Reds owners free the stash for that we don’t now allow ourselves to think they can afford?

  5. #19
    breath westofyou's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by North View Post
    Me too. Players would be in favor of it...the money in each slice of the decreasing pie goes up.

    Pro sports player's unions are not traditional unions. They are guilds; the lesser the merrier.
    Players don't say yes to things that reduce their numbers

  6. #20
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    This team is roughly .500 by runs scored and allowed (a better estimate of talent than W-L) and is among the youngest rosters the sport. Better luck in 1 run games and we'd still be talking about sneaking on in. The only "bad" contract at this point is Votto. I don't see any logic in an active teardown.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  8. #21
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    This team is roughly .500 by runs scored and allowed (a better estimate of talent than W-L) and is among the youngest rosters the sport. Better luck in 1 run games and we'd still be talking about sneaking on in. The only "bad" contract at this point is Votto. I don't see any logic in an active teardown.
    I don't buy the "ifs and buts" evaluations. It's not just luck that there are ten NL teams with a better record. Our Reds have played sub .500 ball in every month except for May when they went a whopping 15-13. That's consistency. They are consistently a sub .500 team. It's not that they stumbled into bad luck in one run games and that bad luck happened to find them every month

    As for blowing it up, I don't think I'd call it that but I would say that no player is untouchable. I'd shop offers for any player

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  10. #22
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    My biggest concern going into next year is having Bell and Ward in the dugout.

  11. #23
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by bullseye View Post
    Things are bad, let's face it. Offensively, we rely on guys that can't crack the. 270 mark. Our future spends more time on the D. L (Winker, Senzel, Greene, etc) than on the field. Our rotation has 2 quality and consistant arms. No closer. No relief corps. Line up changes by the hour. No hope from a gutted farm system. Time to blow it up
    Yet, with all those problems, they still manage to score more runs than they give up.

    Bell most be spectacular to get hat kind of production out of nothing.

  12. #24
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    I don't buy the "ifs and buts" evaluations. It's not just luck that there are ten NL teams with a better record. Our Reds have played sub .500 ball in every month except for May when they went a whopping 15-13. That's consistency. They are consistently a sub .500 team. It's not that they stumbled into bad luck in one run games and that bad luck happened to find them every month

    As for blowing it up, I don't think I'd call it that but I would say that no player is untouchable. I'd shop offers for any player
    Months an arbitrary grouping. And just as they have "consistently" been sub .500 they have "consistently" scored as many runs as they've allowed. That doesn't change the fact that past run production and prevention is a better predictor of future performance than past W-L record. That this seems to offend your instincts based on its distribution doesn't make it less true.

    In any event, the conclusion about no player being untouchable and shopping around should be the case whether you're a 60 win team, a 100 win team, or anywhere in between.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  14. #25
    Member marcshoe's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Seems obvious to me that they should blow the team up every time they lose a close game or get blown out. Sometimes when they win, that's a sign, too.
    “[Reading] is the sole means by which we slip, involuntarily, often helplessly, into another's skin, another's voice, another's soul" -- Joyce Carol Oates

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  16. #26
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    There’s obviously some kind of disconnect between the run differential and the W-L record for the Reds. Something happened that flew under Pythagoras’ radar. We can try to reverse engineer it and end up with something anecdotal, but something happened.

    Maybe it was a result of having an excellent but not-deep-into games starting staff, a bullpen prone to meltdowns, and an offense capable of turning some of those meltdowns into one-run losses, and when everyone is healthy can create a few blowouts.

    So, stabilize the bullpen, strengthen and deepen the offense, and turn the one-run losses into wins.

  17. #27
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by KronoRed View Post
    Contraction? I could see it.
    If there was a lower than 0% chance, that's what I'd pick. No team is getting contracted. Relocated? Sure.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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  19. #28
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    There’s obviously some kind of disconnect between the run differential and the W-L record for the Reds. Something happened that flew under Pythagoras’ radar. We can try to reverse engineer it and end up with something anecdotal, but something happened.

    Maybe it was a result of having an excellent but not-deep-into games starting staff, a bullpen prone to meltdowns, and an offense capable of turning some of those meltdowns into one-run losses, and when everyone is healthy can create a few blowouts.

    So, stabilize the bullpen, strengthen and deepen the offense, and turn the one-run losses into wins.
    It’s rather obvious to me.

    The Reds 7-8-9 inning guys in the pen to start the season, Hughes, Hernandez, and Iglesias, have combined 20 losses and ERA’s well above 4.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

  20. #29
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Months an arbitrary grouping. And just as they have "consistently" been sub .500 they have "consistently" scored as many runs as they've allowed. That doesn't change the fact that past run production and prevention is a better predictor of future performance than past W-L record. That this seems to offend your instincts based on its distribution doesn't make it less true.

    In any event, the conclusion about no player being untouchable and shopping around should be the case whether you're a 60 win team, a 100 win team, or anywhere in between.
    I always love the reminder that months are arbitrary. If we looked at things from the 17th of each month to the 17th of the next month things would look different (overall speaking).

  21. #30
    Goober GAC's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    I'm at the game, sitting two rows behind the visitors dugout, with my daughter who's home from Germany on leave. That defensive play by Dietrich in LF just now was one of the worst displays of defense I have seen in quite some time. That ball should have been caught. He just flung himself against the wall lol
    "In my day you had musicians who experimented with drugs. Now it's druggies experimenting with music" - Alfred G Clark (circa 1972)

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