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Thread: Time to blow it up!

  1. #31
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Months an arbitrary grouping. And just as they have "consistently" been sub .500 they have "consistently" scored as many runs as they've allowed. That doesn't change the fact that past run production and prevention is a better predictor of future performance than past W-L record. That this seems to offend your instincts based on its distribution doesn't make it less true.

    In any event, the conclusion about no player being untouchable and shopping around should be the case whether you're a 60 win team, a 100 win team, or anywhere in between.
    Everything's an arbitrary grouping. If you have issues with it, fine. State why and suggest another. The Reds have had a positive run differential pretty much the whole yr and it has NOT proven to be predictive of their future record. They've stayed sub .500.

    That positive run differential may make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside but it does not move the needle for me

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  3. #32
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by GAC View Post
    I'm at the game, sitting two rows behind the visitors dugout, with my daughter who's home from Germany on leave. That defensive play by Dietrich in LF just now was one of the worst displays of defense I have seen in quite some time. That ball should have been caught. He just flung himself against the wall lol
    I saw that play too. Dietrich seems to have checked out on the 2019 season

  4. #33
    Member 757690's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Everything's an arbitrary grouping. If you have issues with it, fine. State why and suggest another. The Reds have had a positive run differential pretty much the whole yr and it has NOT proven to be predictive of their future record. They've stayed sub .500.

    That positive run differential may make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside but it does not move the needle for me
    The Reds now have won as many games this year as they did last year, and have 14 games to play. They have clearly improved, even if you only look at the number of wins.

    The team lost 94+ games for four straight seasons. It would take a miracle for them to turn that into a winning team in just one off season. They took a big step towards .500 this season, and, with the right moves, should be able to be above .500 next season. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t, but the opportunity to reach .500 is there, which is more than we could say this last off season.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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  6. #34
    Member schroomytunes's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    By blowing it up yes I agree to an extent. The Reds really need to clean out some space on the 40 man roster, some guys just need to be let go. ( Mella, Romano, Alaniz, Bowman, and Grateral) we simply need better depth in the high minors. I would like us to focus on:

    1) getting 2 solid bullpen arms

    2) getting an offensive bat for LF (MARCEL OZUNA), which improves OF depth with Winker/Ervin/Senzel/Aquino

    3) platoon 2b to team with Van Meter ( Brian Dozier, Neil Walker)

    4) Swing-man 6th starter/Long relief (Kevin Gausman)

  7. #35
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    The Reds now have won as many games this year as they did last year, and have 14 games to play. They have clearly improved, even if you only look at the number of wins.

    The team lost 94+ games for four straight seasons. It would take a miracle for them to turn that into a winning team in just one off season. They took a big step towards .500 this season, and, with the right moves, should be able to be above .500 next season. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t, but the opportunity to reach .500 is there, which is more than we could say this last off season.
    They'd better win more games considering what they gave up. Yes, they are marginally better but they also won't sniff .500, let alone be a contender.

    A lot of folks said we'd reach .500 last off season. Want me to post the RZ predictions?

  8. #36
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    This team is roughly .500 by runs scored and allowed (a better estimate of talent than W-L) and is among the youngest rosters the sport. Better luck in 1 run games and we'd still be talking about sneaking on in. The only "bad" contract at this point is Votto. I don't see any logic in an active teardown.
    The one thing that skew looking at run differential you can get an uneven amount of blow outside that skew the numbers. The reds have blow out opponents a lot more that than they have been blown out. Which to me statistic anomaly that should correct itself.
    Edit also the talent on the team has changed over the year and hopefully will change going into next year.

    If you look at the team since the all star break their 25-31 is very close to their run differential 270 for 293 given up. -23 run differential which is 25.7 - 30.3 record so the fraction did not go our way.
    Last edited by InsaneinthBrame; 09-08-2019 at 10:33 PM.

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  10. #37
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    The Reds' aggressive offseason didn't pan out in 2019, but Cincinnati has a path to contention in 2020

    We have four reasons for hope at Great American Ballpark

    1. Offensive nucleus
    2. Rotation
    3. Back-end of the bullpen
    4. Outside organization help?
    LINK

  11. #38
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    The one thing that skew looking at run differential you can get an uneven amount of blow outside that skew the numbers. The reds have blow out opponents a lot more that than they have been blown out. Which to me statistic anomaly that should correct itself.
    That's not accurate. The Reds have played in 24 games decided by 6 or more runs this season and have only a 13-11 record in those games with a run diff of only +16 to show for "blowout" contests. That's not skewing anything.

    What's causing the W/L record to be suppressed is that the Reds have played 75 games decided by 1 or 2 runs and have only a .386 winning percentage (with a run diff of -24) to show for it.

    In contrast, the Brewers (-33 Run Diff overall) have played 70 games finishing within 2 runs of their opponents and have posted a winning percentage of .614 across those games; pushing their total winning percentage higher than what should be expected for the season.
    "The problem with strikeouts isn't that they hurt your team, it's that they hurt your feelings..." --Rob Neyer

    "The single most important thing for a hitter is to get a good pitch to hit. A good hitter can hit a pitch that’s over the plate three times better than a great hitter with a ball in a tough spot.”
    --Ted Williams

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  13. #39
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    That's not accurate. The Reds have played in 24 games decided by 6 or more runs this season and have only a 13-11 record in those games with a run diff of only +16 to show for "blowout" contests. That's not skewing anything.

    What's causing the W/L record to be suppressed is that the Reds have played 75 games decided by 1 or 2 runs and have only a .386 winning percentage (with a run diff of -24) to show for it.

    In contrast, the Brewers (-33 Run Diff overall) have played 70 games finishing within 2 runs of their opponents and have posted a winning percentage of .614 across those games; pushing their total winning percentage higher than what should be expected for the season.
    Which is the logical result with good starting pitching to keep Reds in the game, but offensive and bullpen issues that make it difficult to win the close ones. They don’t pull away or come back much on offense and often lose when the bullpens match up.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-09-2019 at 08:51 AM.

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  15. #40
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    Everything's an arbitrary grouping. If you have issues with it, fine. State why and suggest another. The Reds have had a positive run differential pretty much the whole yr and it has NOT proven to be predictive of their future record. They've stayed sub .500.

    That positive run differential may make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside but it does not move the needle for me
    A team that has .500 level talent will be expected to play .500 ball moving forward. If that team with .500 talent starts below .500, we would expect them to remain under .500 in terms of cumulative record for this season.

    This isn't about feeling warm and fuzzy. It's about understanding how math works.

    The history of baseball made has made it exceedingly clear that performance in 1-run games is not a projectable "skill" at a team level. The talent on the Reds is such that we expect them to score and allow approximately the same number of runs. There's not a special distribution of that talent which makes them likely to continue doing that while consistently losing more often than they win.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  17. #41
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    This team is roughly .500 by runs scored and allowed (a better estimate of talent than W-L) and is among the youngest rosters the sport. Better luck in 1 run games and we'd still be talking about sneaking on in. The only "bad" contract at this point is Votto. I don't see any logic in an active teardown.
    I just looked, their pythag says right now they should be 73-71. What concerns me is this is the second straight season in which they have under-performed in one run games. I don't know if there is anything there, or just two years of bad luck.

    The pitching is there and that generally is the toughest thing to find. Some weird things happened with some key players this season. Votto had his worst season, Winker had an injury riddled season, and Senzel went through swing change midyear. I think the OF is there, the pitching is there, I think you have some holes in the IF that need to be addressed, but this team really isn't that far off. A quick start and better record in one run games and all of a sudden you are right in the thick of it.

  18. #42
    Will post for food BuckeyeRedleg's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I just looked, their pythag says right now they should be 73-71. What concerns me is this is the second straight season in which they have under-performed in one run games. I don't know if there is anything there, or just two years of bad luck.
    That’s the thing though. It’s not just been two years. Go back all the way to 2014. Every year (with exception of 2016) the Reds have performed worse in one-run games than their overall record. They are 106-175 (.377) in one-run games from 2014 until today.

    We hear about being unlucky and randomness, but at a certain point either there is some kind of curse or it’s an epidemic.

  19. #43
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Regarding the 1-run performance stuff. I'm open to the argument that it's a "skill" and not just bad luck. in fact, I know that it's not JUST bad luck. Bad teams are slightly more likely to lose 1-run games than good teams are. It's a question of the size of that effect. The models which attempt to explain 1-run game performance find that team quality explains a small portion of it. Try to control for bullpen quality and you get the same result. So the more accurate version of my claim is that 1-run game variance from .500 is MOSTLY luck and that luck portion is not predictive.

    But getting back to the bigger picture, what's the claim about the size of that effect? Do we think the Reds are closer to a 75 win team or an 81 win team? And what do those two numbers tell us about the appropriate strategy moving forward? Even if you truly believe that the 1-run game performance is a function of this particular roster, I'm not sure I see the case for "blowing it up" in any sense that would differentiate it as a strategy from "Well, they should be looking for every opportunity to get better."

    For reading on 1 run games, a few articles:
    https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...inable-orioles
    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...good-or-lucky/
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

  20. #44
    Member Sea Ray's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    A team that has .500 level talent will be expected to play .500 ball moving forward. If that team with .500 talent starts below .500, we would expect them to remain under .500 in terms of cumulative record for this season.

    This isn't about feeling warm and fuzzy. It's about understanding how math works.

    The history of baseball made has made it exceedingly clear that performance in 1-run games is not a projectable "skill" at a team level. The talent on the Reds is such that we expect them to score and allow approximately the same number of runs. There's not a special distribution of that talent which makes them likely to continue doing that while consistently losing more often than they win.
    And they have remained under .500 for the entire season. They're a sub .500 team. I don't see where you disagree with me. Sounds like we're on the same page

  21. #45
    Stat Wanker Hodiernus RedsManRick's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Sea Ray View Post
    And they have remained under .500 for the entire season. They're a sub .500 team. I don't see where you disagree with me. Sounds like we're on the same page
    Nope. I've been quite clear that when I say ".500 team", I'm referring to their talent level, aka the record I expect them to performance at from this point forward. That is not the same thing as simply restating their cumulative record on the season as a percentage.
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.


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