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Thread: Time to blow it up!

  1. #46
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Nope. I've been quite clear that when I say ".500 team", I'm referring to their talent level, aka the record I expect them to performance at from this point forward. That is not the same thing as simply restating their cumulative record on the season as a percentage.
    Which is pretty much what they've been since April 7th

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  3. #47
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Fil3232 View Post
    Which is pretty much what they've been since April 7th
    That’s a great point. They had a new manager, lots of new players and were still figuring out who to play and where. Once they dropped Kemp and Schebler, and called up Senzel, they’ve been a .500 team.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
    “You got the pitching, now what?” - Reds fans

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  5. #48
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Nope. I've been quite clear that when I say ".500 team", I'm referring to their talent level, aka the record I expect them to performance at from this point forward. That is not the same thing as simply restating their cumulative record on the season as a percentage.
    Well there must be something else going on cause they haven't played .500 ball from any point forward

  6. #49
    Waitin til next year bucksfan2's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by RedsManRick View Post
    Regarding the 1-run performance stuff. I'm open to the argument that it's a "skill" and not just bad luck. in fact, I know that it's not JUST bad luck. Bad teams are slightly more likely to lose 1-run games than good teams are. It's a question of the size of that effect. The models which attempt to explain 1-run game performance find that team quality explains a small portion of it. Try to control for bullpen quality and you get the same result. So the more accurate version of my claim is that 1-run game variance from .500 is MOSTLY luck and that luck portion is not predictive.

    But getting back to the bigger picture, what's the claim about the size of that effect? Do we think the Reds are closer to a 75 win team or an 81 win team? And what do those two numbers tell us about the appropriate strategy moving forward? Even if you truly believe that the 1-run game performance is a function of this particular roster, I'm not sure I see the case for "blowing it up" in any sense that would differentiate it as a strategy from "Well, they should be looking for every opportunity to get better."

    For reading on 1 run games, a few articles:
    https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...inable-orioles
    https://www.baseballprospectus.com/n...good-or-lucky/
    I tend to think its more luck than anything else. I do think things like a good and deep bullpen tend to help in one run wins, but by how much? I think things like psychology tend to play in to things, especially if you are on one side of the debate more often than not. If you have won a large percentage of one run games you tend to think you will win those games. The same can be said about the losing side, you are always waiting for the next show to drop.

    I do think in short series, or in the micro, you can control the outcome more. I also think Bell was pressing early in the year which led to his pen being burned out as the season went along. I do find in somewhat alarming that it has been two managerial staffs who have struggled in one run games. Is there something more to this?

  7. #50
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Does anybody know how often the Reds offense scored while behind, to cut the lead to one, and lost?

  8. #51
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Not time to "Blow it up" At least not yet.

    2020 is going to be our best chance to contend for the next 5 years, barring a miracle. The front office has gone "all in" whether we like it or not. (Personally, I am glad they are trying).

    2021 might be another year to go for it, it is too early to tell.

    2022, we have Sonny Gray as a pending FA, along with Lorenzen, maybe some other guys, I really don't have time to check. Plus, the normal variables of guys getting older, getting hurt over 2 years, etc.. Of course, a chance we might get help from the farm in those 2 years, but honestly, no much left in the farm (maybe 1 or 2 players).. They could go into rebuild mode by trading Gray, Lorenzen, other Pending FA or expensive guys.. If they don't, the team will likely be bad in 2023 (Barring an influx of talent) and we will be back to another 5 year drought..

    So let's enjoy this while we can.. the Grim Reaper is going to return soon enough and we will be back to hoping for the next Robert Stephenson to lead us back to glory and collecting prospects.. I really don't like that phase.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

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    Revering4Blue (09-09-2019),wlf WV (09-12-2019)

  10. #52
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by bucksfan2 View Post
    I tend to think its more luck than anything else. I do think things like a good and deep bullpen tend to help in one run wins, but by how much? I think things like psychology tend to play in to things, especially if you are on one side of the debate more often than not. If you have won a large percentage of one run games you tend to think you will win those games. The same can be said about the losing side, you are always waiting for the next show to drop.

    I do think in short series, or in the micro, you can control the outcome more. I also think Bell was pressing early in the year which led to his pen being burned out as the season went along. I do find in somewhat alarming that it has been two managerial staffs who have struggled in one run games. Is there something more to this?
    I think a big issue in our 1 run losses is the lack of offense late in games. When it is tied 8th inning or later we are just waiting until the bull pen gives up a run a loses especially Iglesias in a tied game.

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    REDREAD (09-10-2019)

  12. #53
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by SteelSD View Post
    That's not accurate. The Reds have played in 24 games decided by 6 or more runs this season and have only a 13-11 record in those games with a run diff of only +16 to show for "blowout" contests. That's not skewing anything.

    What's causing the W/L record to be suppressed is that the Reds have played 75 games decided by 1 or 2 runs and have only a .386 winning percentage (with a run diff of -24) to show for it.

    In contrast, the Brewers (-33 Run Diff overall) have played 70 games finishing within 2 runs of their opponents and have posted a winning percentage of .614 across those games; pushing their total winning percentage higher than what should be expected for the season.
    Being 13 and 11 with +14 is definately skewing things not as bad as earlier in the year when we were 8-1 in these type of games and a +44 run differential. The blowouts are starting to even out and the run differential has been correcting itself to show the true level talent.

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    REDREAD (09-10-2019)

  14. #54
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    Being 13 and 11 with +14 is definately skewing things not as bad as earlier in the year when we were 8-1 in these type of games and a +44 run differential. The blowouts are starting to even out and the run differential has been correcting itself to show the true level talent.
    They're trending toward a slightly negative run differential, but they were -123 last year. This season has been a colossal leap. If we look at their final run differential as a more accurate reflection of their true talent, then they've got something to build on. I think it's going to take some inventive moves to get to the next level, but it makes for interesting possibilities.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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  16. #55
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    For the last couple of years (1-18) there were numerous articles written about how good the minor league system was. I think the FO assumed they could acquire good talent and things would work out. They either missed the development piece or the talent was over -rated. I think it was the development piece. For a couple of years - no one really improved their skills. I think that may be changing and maybe it's possible they are taking care of this piece now.

    I'm hoping the FO evaluated the system. Found out that they were not developing players and understood that it takes a while to get that piece rectified. That being the case - you trade minor league players before they lose too much value -with the knowledge that you can't develop them and need to get something for them. My memory is poor - but i think at this time last year Fangraphs had the system rated 3rd in FV. Recently, BA had the system ranked 20th. Trading minor leaguers for MLB talent (with the knowledge that you cannot develop) is a smart thing to do.

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  18. #56
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    They're trending toward a slightly negative run differential, but they were -123 last year. This season has been a colossal leap. If we look at their final run differential as a more accurate reflection of their true talent, then they've got something to build on. I think it's going to take some inventive moves to get to the next level, but it makes for interesting possibilities.
    I think they may have something to build on. I wish they were in the Indians place. You can have a much better record in the al because they have a ton of bad teams. I would love playing the Tigers Royals and white Sox 19 times a year. Look at how we did against the Marlins. Plus we would play Orioles Mariners and blue Jays another 6 games each.

    But I am not sure how we can increase the talent level. This looks to be at best a .500 team going into next year

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    REDREAD (09-10-2019)

  20. #57
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper View Post
    For the last couple of years (1-18) there were numerous articles written about how good the minor league system was. I think the FO assumed they could acquire good talent and things would work out. They either missed the development piece or the talent was over -rated. I think it was the development piece. For a couple of years - no one really improved their skills. I think that may be changing and maybe it's possible they are taking care of this piece now.

    I'm hoping the FO evaluated the system. Found out that they were not developing players and understood that it takes a while to get that piece rectified. That being the case - you trade minor league players before they lose too much value -with the knowledge that you can't develop them and need to get something for them. My memory is poor - but i think at this time last year Fangraphs had the system rated 3rd in FV. Recently, BA had the system ranked 20th. Trading minor leaguers for MLB talent (with the knowledge that you cannot develop) is a smart thing to do.
    The one reason I have been a big fan of trading hunter greene before his injury is that I am not sure the reds could get the most out of him.

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    REDREAD (09-10-2019)

  22. #58
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    They're trending toward a slightly negative run differential, but they were -123 last year. This season has been a colossal leap. If we look at their final run differential as a more accurate reflection of their true talent, then they've got something to build on. I think it's going to take some inventive moves to get to the next level, but it makes for interesting possibilities.
    Here’s an interesting look at the run differential.

    https://twitter.com/darenw/status/1171430773427073029

  23. #59
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by BCubb2003 View Post
    Here’s an interesting look at the run differential.

    https://twitter.com/darenw/status/1171430773427073029
    By looking at that the Reds should be over .500 since the 1-8 start. They haven't

  24. #60
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Time to blow it up!

    Quote Originally Posted by InsaneinthBrame View Post
    But I am not sure how we can increase the talent level. This looks to be at best a .500 team going into next year
    If they come back with the same team I wouldn't expect any notable improvement. In fact, I could see the argument that they could see their run differential dip. The case for getting better lies in the hands of a fairly small number of players.

    Yet they've got pieces to make deals. We're going to have to see who's buying and who's selling this winter. More importantly, are the Reds willing to make some unconventional moves?
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.


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