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View Poll Results: Ending run differential

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  • +1 or better

    12 37.50%
  • -1 or worse

    18 56.25%
  • even

    2 6.25%
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Thread: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

  1. #1
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    Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    They are currently +5 in Runs for the year while being 10 games under .500. This seems like a statistical anomaly for sure. Do you think they'll finish the year with a positive differential?

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  3. #2
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    At this point what are the chances that anyone cares?

  4. #3
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    That "statistical anomaly" goes away real quick when you look at the Red's results versus 2 teams: Miami and San Diego. The Reds are 11-3 against those 2 teams. Miami and San Diego have a combined record of 118-170 - a .410 winning %. The Reds are a combined +37 against them - +30 against Miami and +7 against SD. The Reds are -33 against all other MLB teams.

    All it means is the Reds were able to beat up on a couple of bad teams.

  5. Likes:

    REDREAD (09-12-2019)

  6. #4
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Seems like the 31 1 loss games had something to with it other than beating 2 out of conference teams.

    We are +4 going in to tonight!

  7. #5
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Down to +2 now.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  8. #6
    Member RedsBrick's Avatar
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    I'll one-up this poll and ask what are the chances they finish ahead of the Pirates?

  9. #7
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    It's kind of interesting, when you sort all teams by run differential, there are five teams in the middle, that are kind of close to 0.. The Mets (+29), Reds (+2) , Phillies (-7), Brewers (-25), and Rangers (-38).
    Everyone else is either +70 or greater OR -62 or worse..
    Not many ".500-ish" teams based on run differential.
    Other than the 5 teams listed above, everyone else is either quite good or quite bad.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/_.../group/overall
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  10. #8
    Member redsrule2500's Avatar
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    If they finish positive, it's an amazing statistical anomaly. I think that it indicates the team is better than their record.

    Runs, after all, are more granular in nature, and therefore are more likely to be relevant to determining success/failure than Wins.

    Change my mind.
    redsrule2500
    Go Reds!
    Im a normal guy blessed with the ability to hit a baseball. - Sean Casey

  11. #9
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    If they finish positive, it's an amazing statistical anomaly. I think that it indicates the team is better than their record.

    Runs, after all, are more granular in nature, and therefore are more likely to be relevant to determining success/failure than Wins.

    Change my mind.
    So you're saying that you think the Reds (at +4) are a better team then the Brewers (at -25)? Even though the Brewers are 77-68 and the Reds are 67-79?

  12. #10
    Where's my chair? REDREAD's Avatar
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by redsrule2500 View Post
    If they finish positive, it's an amazing statistical anomaly. I think that it indicates the team is better than their record.

    Runs, after all, are more granular in nature, and therefore are more likely to be relevant to determining success/failure than Wins.

    Change my mind.
    Not really. As someone else pointed out +30 of the Reds run differential came from the Marlins. They are negative against everyone else.
    The fact that teams are tanking is skewing some statistical analysis.
    I think the "run differential sniff test" assumes that there is relative parity among teams. The Marlins are a joke and has artificially inflated our run differential. If there's any "luck" factor involved, that's it, IMO.
    Nov. 13, 2007: One of the greatest days in Reds history: John Allen gets the boot!

  13. #11
    Rally Onion! Chip R's Avatar
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Chances are...
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    I was wrong
    Quote Originally Posted by Raisor View Post
    Chip is right

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    REDREAD (09-13-2019),Revering4Blue (09-12-2019)

  15. #12
    Member Ron Madden's Avatar
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    I don't know that it matters but if we're gonna hold beating the Marlins against the Reds, shouldn't we consider how many runs every other team has scored vs. the Marlins?

  16. #13
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Jump to +8

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    Edd Roush (09-13-2019),REDREAD (09-13-2019)

  18. #14
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Madden View Post
    I don't know that it matters but if we're gonna hold beating the Marlins against the Reds, shouldn't we consider how many runs every other team has scored vs. the Marlins?
    If we do that it doesn’t make the Reds look as bad as possible, so no.

  19. #15
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    Re: Chances Reds finish positive in Run Differential?

    I prematurely voted over without looking at the remaining schedule. Reds have a pretty tough route the rest of the way so it's looking unlikely. But maybe they'll do it.


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