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Thread: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

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    Moderator Kinsm's Avatar
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    2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    ---SINCE WE NEED SOMETHING OTHER THAN THE REDS RUN DIFFERENTIAL TO TALK ABOUT---

    This past winter Jax was kind enough to run the annual offseason Redszone top 40 prospects rankings. Below is a not-so in depth look at how Redszone's top 40 performed this year. (Keep in mind that 2020 draft selections were not on the list, therefore won't be discussed here!)

    TOP 40 PROSPECTS---

    1. Nick Senzel- His season is finished due to a torn labrum in his right shoulder. The former infielder hit .256 - .315 - .427 through 414 PA's in his rookie season with the Cincinnati Reds while adjusting well defensively to CF. Since the Reds waited until May to purchase/call-up Senzel, they'll control the 24 year old's contractual rights through at least the 2025 season.

    2. Taylor Trammel - His season is now over, and he's with a new ballclub since being traded midseason to the Padres. The 21 year old youngster struggled in AA this season hitting a combined .234 - .340 - .349 in 514 PA's. He's still a highly regarded prospect, as most pundits believe it's only when not if the power will show up. Although he's still clinging to a CF job, it looks more and more likely he'll move to the corners in the near future.

    3. Hunter Greene - The 19 year old starting pitcher missed the entire season after undergoing TJS in April, he'll likely miss a significant portion of the 2020 season as well. Even with the injury Fangraphs currently ranks Greene as the 71st best prospect in the minors.

    4. Jonathan India - The 22 year old infielder hit a respectable .259 - .365 - .402 in a combined 512 PA's between A+/AA. His 3B defense was a bit shaky at times, but there is currently no reason to worry a move is in store. Fangraphs currently ranks India as the 52nd best prospect in the minors.

    5. Tony Santillan - The 21 year old starting pitcher finished with a 2W-8L record and a 4.84 ERA in 102 IP at AA this year. Somewhat alarmingly his BB/9 rate climbed to 4.7 this year and more alarming he finished the season on the DL with a shoulder injury. Fangraphs currently ranks Tony as the 106th best prospect in the minors.

    6. Tyler Stephenson - The 22 year old Georgian catcher hit a very nice .285 - .372 - .410 in 363 PA's at the AA level this season. In addition he threw out 28 of 104 attempted base stealers (27%), which is a few ticks better than he fared last year in A/A+. Fangraphs currently ranks Tyler as the 54th best prospect in the minors.

    7. Jose Siri - The 23 year old outfielder's 2019 season did not go as expected. After a huge 2017 season that warranted the Reds protecting him from that year's upcoming Rule 5 Draft, Siri has now struggled two years in a row (wasting 2 of his 3 option years). In a combined 517 PA's over 2 levels this year (AA/AAA) he hit .237 - .300 - .357. Though, he may be the Reds best defensive CF option in the minors he had an ugly 32% K/PA rate this year. His 40 man roster spot may be in jeopardy this winter.

    8. Vladimir Gutierrez - The 23 year old big money Cuban starter did not fare well in the homerun friendly confines of AAA this year. Posting a 6W-11L record and a putrid 6.04 ERA in 137 innings. If there is any hope of him becoming a major leaguer he'll have to reduce his 1HR/5IP rate that he posted this season.

    9. T.J. Freidl - The 23 year old tween outfielder hit a rather pedestrian .235 - .347 - .385 in 269 AA PA's this year. However, the highest paid NDFA signing in modern baseball history did miss significant time this season due to a shoulder and ankle injury. IMHO, the most disconcerting thing with Friedl is the Reds had him behind both Siri and Fairchild on the AA CF depth chart...meaning his offense will have to improve greatly if he's relegated to the corners.

    10. Shed Long - The 23 year old 2Bman traded shortly after we completed the top 40 list is officially a major leaguer. He's hit a very respectable .284 - .357 - .466 over his first 129 major league PA's with Seattle. He also hit .274 - .335 - .460 over 250 AAA PA's this season. There's an ever increasing chance he's the Mariners starting 2Bman come opening day 2020.

    11. Mike Siani - The 19 year old outfielder hit .253 - .333 - .339 in 531 PA's in A Dayton this year, and by all accounts played solidly in CF. As one of the younger players in full season ball that's not too shabby.

    12. Jose Garcia - The 21 year old Cuban defector hit a more than respectable .280 - .343 - .436 in 452 A+ PA's this season. His defense still needs some work, but thus far it looks as though he can stick at SS. Fangraphs currently ranks Garcia as just outside their top 109 minor league prospects.

    13. Mariel Bautista - The 21 year old outfielder definitely didn't have a season worthy of his #13 ranking, posting a pedestrian .233 - .303 - .332 line in 433 PA's at A Dayton. And the Reds have moved Bautista to the corners, further hurting his stock.

    14. Stuart Fairchild - The 23 year old centerfielder put up a nice .264 - .352 - .441 line in 460 PA's spread over two levels this year (A+/AA). The fact that he can soundly play all three outfield positions is a big plus in his favor. If Siri flounders out of the gate next year in AAA don't be surprised to see Stuart leapfrog him on the depth chart.

    15. Miguel Hernandez - The 20 year old Venezuelan shortstop hit a pedestrian .245 - .284 - .337 in 484 PA's at A Dayton. Pitch recognition is going to be key to Miguel's future development. Don't be shocked if there is a move to 2B or even 3B in the near future either.

    16. Kuery Mella - The now 26 year old starting pitcher burned his final major league option this season, while producing an 8W-14L record with a 5.05 ERA in 143 AAA innings. If he makes it too 2020 opening day still on the 40 man roster his future might have to be as a short reliever. I'm sure the Reds were hoping for more from him, as he was one of the 2 pieces of the SFG Leake trade.

    17. Scott Moss - The 24 year old starting pitcher's season couldn't have gone much better than it did, Combined he posted a 10W-6L record and a 2.96 ERA in 130 AAA innings between the Reds and Indians top affiliate. The 6'6" goliath's ability to miss bats this season has been a nice thing to see. There's a chance he could see action with the Indians next year.

    18. Jimmy Herget - The 25 year old reliever made his big league debut with the Reds this season, after posting a 2.91 ERA in 59 AAA innings. He'll retain his rookie eligibility next season. His potential future success will weigh heavily on his ability or inability per say to warrant walks.

    19. Lyon Richardson - After the 19 year old starting pitcher struggled in his first taste of professional action last year he rebounded this year by posting a 3W-9L record and a 4.15 ERA over 113 IP at A Dayton. If he can prevent lefties from hitting the long ball off of him and keep his future walk rate around his 2019 figure of 2.6 he should have a bright future.

    20. Ibandel Isabel - The 24 year old 1Bman did as he always does - hit a lot of homeruns while striking out a ton. He finished the injury shortened year with 26 HR's and 153 K's in 368 AA PA's, an overall line of .243 - .307 - .518. Ibandel will qualify for free agency in about a month's time if not added to the Reds 40 man roster.

    21. Hendrik Clementina - The 22 year old Curacaon catcher took a step back with the bat this season, finishing with a .249 - .296 - .411 line in 365 A+ Daytona PA's. Much more disconcerting than the step back at the plate is the continued deficiency behind the plate, this season the big bodied catcher only managed to throw out 11 of 77 would be base stealers and was asked to DH 31 times.

    22. Jose Lopez - It was a whirlwind season for the 25 year old righthander, as he was DFA'd, claimed by SFG, then reclaimed around opening day, outrighted, and then injured. He managed to pitch in just 50 innings at AAA Louisville posting a 2W-4L record and an ugly 6.84 ERA.

    23. James Marinan - The 20 year old starting pitcher posted a disappointing 2W-9L record and a 5.56 ERA in 79 innings at A Dayton this season. He had an ugly .306 BAVG against, an equally ugly 5.5 K/9 rate, and missed the final month of the year due to injury.

    24. Rylan Thomas - Unfortunately for the 22 year old 1Bman, he missed the vast majority of the season - only playing in 7 rehab games at the rookie level. Let's hope for better health next year, as he's one of the more promising offensive prospects in the system.

    25. Michael Beltre - The 23 year old outfielder had an extremely disappointing season, he started the year in AA, was demoted to A+, and then re-promoted to AA when Siri moved to AAA and Trammell was traded. All told he hit .248 - .335 - .335 over 278 PA's at A+/AA. He'll be a minor league free agent in about a month's time.

    26. Connor Joe - It may have been a make it or break it year for the 26 year old utilityman. The Reds traded the Rule 5 pick to the Giants around opening day, and shortly afterwards he was outrighted and returned to the Dodgers. He amassed a solid .300 - .426 - .503 line in AAA, which could warrant his selection again in this winter's Rule 5 draft.

    27. Michael Byrne - The 22 year old righthanded reliever was likely ranked higher by us than he should have been simply due to his immediate full-season assignment by the Reds last season. The Reds decided to try him out as a starter this year but quickly changed course after he posted a 7.56 ERA in 6 starts. He finished the year pitching out of A+ Daytona's bullpen posting a 2.23 ERA in 40 innings of relief. He's still one of the Reds best relief prospects in their system.

    28. Fidel Castro - The 20 year old outfielder played primarily for the Reds AZL affiliate this season, posting a .290 - .363 - 515 line in 190 PA's. He did get a weeks worth of action at High RK level Greenville to finish the year. It'll be interesting to see if he starts in Dayton next year, I personally think that would be a bad idea as he had a 33% K/PA rate in the AZL this year (and 7 more K's in 17 APPY PA's).

    29. Josh Van Meter - The 24 year old secondbaseman was a borderline org filler prospect for the club just 12 months ago, but this season has been a reckoning of epic proportions for the little guy. After not having a SLG% above .454 in the minors before this year he preceded to hit .348 - .429 - .669 in 211 AAA PA's warranting a contract purchase and a big league audition. In addition to those ridiculous AAA figures he's posted a more down to earth .239 - .326 - 418 line in his first 242 MLB PA's. He could be in line to see significant playing time with the 2020 Reds.

    30. Bren Spillane - Of all the prospects on the top 40, Spillane may have put up the worst season among them. The 22 year old first baseman/outfielder posted a .207 - .302 - .324 line in 243 A Dayton PA's. His 43% K/PA rate stands out as the ugliest figure, his season was also cut short due to injury in July.

    31. Aristides Aquino - Opposite of Spillane, Aquino likely had the best season among the top 40 prospects. A little less than a year ago, Aquino lost his 40 man spot and was unable to find one from any of the other 29 ballclubs. Luckily for Reds fans, he resigned with the Reds on a new minor league contract and started the year with something to prove...and boy did he prove something. In 323 AAA PA's the 25 year old outfielder posted a .299 - .356 - .636 line and thus far he's hit .259 - .314 - .576 in 185 MLB PA's. His 14 homeruns in less than a month was mouth droolingly awe inspiring. Like VanMeter, he too could see significant playing time with the 2020 Reds.

    32. Andy Sugillo - The 22 year old outfielder had an okay year in A+ Daytona this season, posting a .294 - .331 - .360 line in 485 PA's. Next year will be the Reds final year of team control over his contract, and they will have to see more power in his bat to warrant adding him to their 40 man roster.

    33. Jacob Heatherly - The 21 year old starting pitcher had a season like #24 Rylan Thomas', he saw action in only 8 innings due to injury. Reds fans and the Reds alike would have preferred a greatly different path than the one he's had the past 2 seasons. Let's hope he starts the 2020 season healthy and is able to move quickly through the system.

    34. Packy Naughton - The 23 year old starting pitcher is trying his damnedest to get some respect from RedsZone prospect voters. Over two separate levels this season (A+/AA) Packy posted a 11W-12L record with a 3.32 ERA in 157 IP. He maintained his 7.5 K/9 rate from last year in addition to lowering his BAVG against. Very quickly the former 9th round draft pick has become one of the Reds starting pitching prospect brightspots, and is quite possibly their best left handed starting pitching prospect outside of this year's 1st round draft selection Nick Lodolo.

    35. Debby Santana - The 18 year old Dominican 3Bman saw action in only 25 RK level games due to injury, he ultimately hit .310 - .327 - .410 in 105 AZL PA's. The super young prospect will hopefully return next year healthy, he'll likely be moved to 1B or the OF full-time sooner rather than later.

    36. Ryan Hendrix - The promising 24 year old righthanded reliever battled an elbow strain this season which cost him nearly 3 months of action, he posted a 2.33 ERA in 19 AA innings and more importantly finished the season healthy. He's Rule 5 eligible this winter and is a prime candidate to have his contract purchased.

    37. Wennington Romero - Like Heatherly the 21 year old starting pitcher missed most of the season due to injury, only seeing action in 6 A+ games. The Reds will hope for better health from the Dominican next season.

    38. Joel Kuhnel - The 24 year old reliever posted a combined 5W-3L record with a 2.18 ERA over 53 minor league innings at AA/AAA. He subsequently had his contract purchased and has seen action in 9 big league games thus far. Like Herget, he'll retain his rookie eligibility. He'll enter the 2020 season with an outside shot of making the opening day 25 man roster.

    39. Reiver Sanmartin - The 23 year old posted a 4W-12L record and a 4.05 ERA in a combined 122 IP over two levels (A+/AA) this season. That's a solid year considering it's the most innings he's ever pitched in a professional season of baseball. The Colombian lefthander will be Rule 5 eligible this winter, it'll be interesting to see if the Reds protect him and/or whether or not anyone else feels he's worth the gamble.

    40. Cash Case - The 20 year old utilityman saw action in 41 RK level games, hitting .214 - .316 - .351 in 155 PA's. I think you could argue the Reds had expected more than that from their former 4th round pick. There's always next year!

    Others receiving votes (in order):

    Jesus Reyes - 26 year old, RHRP, outrighted off 40 man roster - posted a 5.03 ERA in 77 AAA IP
    Nick Hanson - 21 year old RHSP, missed the entire season recovering from TJS
    Alfredo Rodriguez - 25 year old big money SS, hit .286 - .325 - .347 in 436 AA PA's and .169 - .261 - .221 in 88 AAA PA's / 2nd best defensive SS in system behind only Trahan
    Alex Powers - 27 year old RHRP, proving he was too good for INDY ball - posted a 1.64 ERA in 49 AA/AAA IP (Rule 5 eligible)
    Jonathan Willems - 20 year old IF'er, hit .214 - .244 - .325 in 123 A Dayton PA's then hit .300 - .331 - .366 in 243 RK PA's after being demoted.
    Jared Solomon - 22 year old RHSP, pitched a 3W-11L record w/ a 3.98 ERA in 115 A/A+ IP, BB/9 rate was an issue
    Drew Mount - 23 year old OF'er, hit .253 - .290 - .335 in 297 A+ PA's after beginning the season injured, K/9 rate and lack of power are an issue
    Brian O'Grady - 27 year old OF'er, had his contract purchased after hitting .280 - .359 - .550 in 489 AAA PA's, struggled thus far in limited MLB PA's - retains rookie eligibility
    Miles Gordon - 21 year old OF'er, hit .208 - .263 - .298 in 324 PA's at A+/AA, began the season injured
    Zeek White - 22 year old OF'er, released from his minor league contract after playing in only 8 games at A Dayton
    Alexis Diaz - 22 year old RHRP, posted a 7W-4L record w/ 5.18 ERA in 57 A Dayton IP, missed a chunk of the season with injury
    Randy Ventura - 21 year old OF'er, struggled in A+ demoted to A, hit a combined .231 - .304 - .259 in 366 PA's
    Connor Bennett 22 year old RHRP, pitched splendidly across two levels, posted a combined 3W-6L record w/ 2.21 ERA in 57 A/A+ IP (Rule 5 eligible)
    Claudio Finol - 19 year old IF'er, struggled in initial A Dayton assignment - demoted - injured - promoted back to A Dayton, ultimately hit just .218 - .286 - .307 in 179 A Dayton PA's
    Edwin Yon - 20 year old OF'er, hit .287 - ,343 - .442 in 140 RK Billings PA's, 44% K/PA rate huge problem
    Juan Martinez - 20 year old 3Bman, hit .238 - .330 - .361 in 507 A Dayton PA's, highly unlikely he sticks at 3B for long
    Ryan Lillie - 23 year old RHSP, posted a 3W-8L record w/ a 3.74 ERA in 110 A+ IP then got drilled for an 8.39 ERA in 25 IP at AA Chattanooga


    ***RHRP Tanner Rainey, RHSP Josiah Gray and SS Jeter Downs were traded prior to our Top 40 was released and therefore were not on the final list.

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  4. #2
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    Re: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    Good summary. Stephenson had a really nice year and is making some top 100 lists now

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    Right now the farm consists of Lodolo, Greene, Stephenson, India and then everyone else. The everyone else has some interesting prospects (Santillian, Siri, Garcia, Hinds, Callihan, Richardson) but no one who has established a solid consistent track record as yet. The "big 4" have both pedigree and flashes of great performance. All in all, though, this has been a disappointing season both in terms of performance in the minors, and health of prospects (see Greene, and Heatherly et al). When it is time to do the RZ annual prospect rankings my interest will wane rapidly after the top 5 or 6 guys.
    99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...

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    Re: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    Quote Originally Posted by RedlegJake View Post
    Right now the farm consists of Lodolo, Greene, Stephenson, India and then everyone else. The everyone else has some interesting prospects (Santillian, Siri, Garcia, Hinds, Callihan, Richardson) but no one who has established a solid consistent track record as yet. The "big 4" have both pedigree and flashes of great performance. All in all, though, this has been a disappointing season both in terms of performance in the minors, and health of prospects (see Greene, and Heatherly et al). When it is time to do the RZ annual prospect rankings my interest will wane rapidly after the top 5 or 6 guys.
    Wait until two of those five are six are traded at the winter meetings for someone with one more year on their contract.
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

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    Re: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    Thanks to Kinsm for this helpful summary. When reviewing prospects lists, keep in mind that MLB today emphasizes certain skills, including HR power and bat missing K-oriented pitching. So a player like Aquino, who may not have been highly ranked, can be a significant player with his power. And some pitchers, who lack three effective pitchers, can be important assets as relievers. IMO there’s more room today for less highly touted prospects who can do certain things well.

    FWIW, given all the trading, I don’t think Reds are in bad shape. One more solid draft and the system should be among the better ones again.
    Last edited by Kc61; 09-21-2019 at 10:03 AM.

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    Re: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    Agree with Jake. We basically have four high end prospects, then a lot of others, some better than others (e.g. Garcia) but they're still pretty undifferentiated. We traded Trammell, Gray, Downs, and Long. What would a rating look like of our top four remaining guys and those four we dealt? I'll start:
    1. Trammell
    2. Downs
    3. Greene
    4. Lodolo
    5. Long
    6. Gray
    7. Stephenson
    8. India
    [I understand Long is no longer officially a prospect]

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    RedlegJake (09-21-2019)

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    Re: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    Quote Originally Posted by HokieRed View Post
    Agree with Jake. We basically have four high end prospects, then a lot of others, some better than others (e.g. Garcia) but they're still pretty undifferentiated.
    I have five high-end prospects, then a lot of middling question marks.

    In any order:
    1. Greene
    2. Lodolo
    3. India
    4. Garcia
    5. T. Stephenson

    The good news is that Santillan has talent and previous relative dominance. Fairchild may have turned a bit of a corner, with power, speed, and CF capability. The young guys didn't fall flat. Naughton could be sneaky too.

    The bad news is that there's little ready next year. Dayton perpetually looks like it's barren of talent. The pitching's questionable. Louisville's been bad for a decade. Almost all the AA OF struggled. There's quite a few serviceable prospects, but few difference-makers.

    They'll need another AAA resurgence, a la Aquino or VanMeter or perhaps some quality depth signings to help this year.

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    Re: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    Garcia > India
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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    Re: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Garcia > India
    No

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    Re: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    Quote Originally Posted by Rdirtypirates View Post
    No
    Garcia plays the more premium position, is a year younger and posted slightly better numbers when they played at the same level this season. I'll add that I like Garcia's bat-on-bat and doubles power profile to mature better than India's profile of taking walks while not doing much with his bat.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

    Coddle thy pitchers.

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    Re: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Garcia plays the more premium position, is a year younger and posted slightly better numbers when they played at the same level this season. I'll add that I like Garcia's bat-on-bat and doubles power profile to mature better than India's profile of taking walks while not doing much with his bat.
    Good assessment, I just think India's bat will develop. I like young players with an eye.

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    Winning the Human Race TheBigLebowski's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    Quote Originally Posted by Rdirtypirates View Post
    No
    There's something about this post that made me laugh.
    I'm just going to go find a cash machine.

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    Re: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    Quote Originally Posted by Bourgeois Zee View Post
    I have five high-end prospects, then a lot of middling question marks.

    In any order:
    1. Greene
    2. Lodolo
    3. India
    4. Garcia
    5. T. Stephenson

    The good news is that Santillan has talent and previous relative dominance. Fairchild may have turned a bit of a corner, with power, speed, and CF capability. The young guys didn't fall flat. Naughton could be sneaky too.

    The bad news is that there's little ready next year. Dayton perpetually looks like it's barren of talent. The pitching's questionable. Louisville's been bad for a decade. Almost all the AA OF struggled. There's quite a few serviceable prospects, but few difference-makers.

    They'll need another AAA resurgence, a la Aquino or VanMeter or perhaps some quality depth signings to help this year.
    Your comment about AAA being bad for a decade reminds me of a team that wins every year while at the same time their AAA team also seems to win every year. For some reason Reds fan have bought into records in the minors don't matter. Tell that to Cardinals fans.
    Tim McCarver: Baseball Quotes
    I remember one time going out to the mound to talk with Bob Gibson. He told me to get back behind the batter, that the only thing I knew about pitching was that it was hard to hit.

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    Re: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    Quote Originally Posted by paulrichjr View Post
    Your comment about AAA being bad for a decade reminds me of a team that wins every year while at the same time their AAA team also seems to win every year. For some reason Reds fan have bought into records in the minors don't matter. Tell that to Cardinals fans.
    I agree that the Cardinals are doing something right, and I agree that winning is important in the minors. However, in this case the Cardinals' farm was as bad as the Reds. Only two of their seven clubs finished above .500. Perhaps an emphasis on winning results in playing good, fundamental baseball in which the goal is not so much to have a good AB as it is to do what needs to be done to win.

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    Moderator RedlegJake's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Top 40 Prospects End of Season Rundown

    Put me down as anither who feels winning teams are an important part of development and the Reds seeming obliviousness to their farm clubs records has not helped prospects grow.
    99% of all numbers only tell 33% of the story so when looking at the numbers remember that numbers is plural...

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