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Thread: 2019 Playoff Thread

  1. #481
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    Re: 2019 Playoff Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    That’s the problem. At least a third of those pitchers were on PED’s that we know of.
    And even more of the hitters

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  4. #482
    Viva la Rolen kaldaniels's Avatar
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    Re: 2019 Playoff Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    Innings pitches is a real factor.

    We don’t know what this year’s group’s numbers would look like if they pitched back in the 70’s and were expected to pitch a near compete games every time out.
    We can play that game but if we dropped this year’s group back in 1971 they might not pitch as many innings but they’d probably throw a no-hitter every other time out. I’m looking at this from a “compared to the rest of the league at the time” view. Note the low WAR of the pitchers from 1971...they pitched a lot of innings but but they weren’t standout innings relatively speaking, hence the low WAR. Now WAR isn’t any defining stat but it kinda shows the dominance or lack thereof of these guys.

  5. #483
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    Re: 2019 Playoff Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    We can play that game but if we dropped this year’s group back in 1971 they might not pitch as many innings but they’d probably throw a no-hitter every other time out. I’m looking at this from a “compared to the rest of the league at the time” view. Note the low WAR of the pitchers from 1971...they pitched a lot of innings but but they weren’t standout innings relatively speaking, hence the low WAR. Now WAR isn’t any defining stat but it kinda shows the dominance or lack thereof of these guys.
    Part of that can be chalked up to a lower average ERA. Sonny Gray's 2.87 ERA means a lot more in a league with an average of 4.38 than one at 3.47 (the 1971 NL ERA).
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

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  6. #484
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    Re: 2019 Playoff Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    Part of that can be chalked up to a lower average ERA. Sonny Gray's 2.87 ERA means a lot more in a league with an average of 4.38 than one at 3.47 (the 1971 NL ERA).
    Exactly. So much more separation from the rest of the league for this year’s 6 compared to the group from 1971.

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  8. #485
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    Re: 2019 Playoff Thread

    https://blogs.fangraphs.com/greatest...s-of-all-time/

    Some food for thought on my question a few posts back.

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    Re: 2019 Playoff Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    We can play that game but if we dropped this year’s group back in 1971 they might not pitch as many innings but they’d probably throw a no-hitter every other time out. I’m looking at this from a “compared to the rest of the league at the time” view. Note the low WAR of the pitchers from 1971...they pitched a lot of innings but but they weren’t standout innings relatively speaking, hence the low WAR. Now WAR isn’t any defining stat but it kinda shows the dominance or lack thereof of these guys.
    As I said, we don’t know. Comparing different era’s is difficult, messy and nearly impossible.

    But saying how they compare to their league is also problematic. There were 24 teams in 1971, and teams has 10 man pitching staffs. There were only 378 pitchers used in all of MLB that year. There were 831 pitchers used In 2019. Well over twice as many.

    It’s much easier to be well above average when there are nearly 500 more pitchers pitching would never make the majors in 1971. If you very few Tyler Mahle’s getting 25 starts, or Wandy Peralta’s even making the roster. The average ERA was lower in 1971 because everyone has to be good to stay on the team.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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  10. #487
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    Re: 2019 Playoff Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by 757690 View Post
    As I said, we don’t know. Comparing different era’s is difficult, messy and nearly impossible.

    But saying how they compare to their league is also problematic. There were 24 teams in 1971, and teams has 10 man pitching staffs. There were only 378 pitchers used in all of MLB that year. There were 831 pitchers used In 2019. Well over twice as many.

    It’s much easier to be well above average when there are nearly 500 more pitchers pitching would never make the majors in 1971. If you very few Tyler Mahle’s getting 25 starts, or Wandy Peralta’s even making the roster. The average ERA was lower in 1971 because everyone has to be good to stay on the team.
    That’s all fine.

    But do you think the 1971 pitchers hold a candle to the 2019 guys? I sure don’t, despite the differences in the game now a days. That’s all I’m saying but if you disagree just say so and it’s fine. You didn’t bring it up but I find it odd to say the 1971 guys are “absolutely” as good as the 2019 guys.

    One can say “we don’t know” but I’m fine with saying, “yeah, Zack Greinke is better than Mike Cueller.”
    Last edited by kaldaniels; 10-22-2019 at 12:46 AM.

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    Re: 2019 Playoff Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    That’s all fine.

    But do you think the 1971 pitchers hold a candle to the 2019 guys? I sure don’t, despite the differences in the game now a days. That’s all I’m saying but if you disagree just say so and it’s fine. You didn’t bring it up but I find it odd to say the 1971 guys are “absolutely” as good as the 2019 guys.

    One can say “we don’t know” but I’m fine with saying, “yeah, Zack Greinke is better than Mike Cueller.”
    I’m saying we really can’t say.

    We can’t put Grienke as he is now back into 1971 nor put Mike Cuéllar in the modern game. Greinke grew up and developed in a different society, with better science, medicine, technology, understanding of the body and health, even food. The only way to make it work is to have a Greinke born in the fifties and Cuéllar born in the eighties, and compare them after they grew up into MLB pitchers, and that is just silly.
    “We’re going to get the pitching.” -Bob Castellini
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    Re: 2019 Playoff Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    That’s all fine.

    But do you think the 1971 pitchers hold a candle to the 2019 guys? I sure don’t, despite the differences in the game now a days. That’s all I’m saying but if you disagree just say so and it’s fine. You didn’t bring it up but I find it odd to say the 1971 guys are “absolutely” as good as the 2019 guys.

    One can say “we don’t know” but I’m fine with saying, “yeah, Zack Greinke is better than Mike Cueller.”


    Yes...your gang of six would pitch lot of no hitters, as would untold numbers of bums today who can fling a pitch at 95+ Today's bums with lousy W-L would be kings in 1971. Pitch velocity is a *tad* different these days.

    Different eras...why can you not get that? Pitchers back then had to deal with hitters who actively wanted to advance base runners popping one into the field or a grounder as opposed to today's hitters who want to go for a home run or nothing else. I forget the term...natural outcome or some such. A HR, a walk or a strikeout.

    And today's pitchers are far less distracted because there is so much less base stealing and infie!d action. Much easier on the mound these days.

    Pax.
    Last edited by North; 10-22-2019 at 02:18 AM.
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  14. #490
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    Re: 2019 Playoff Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by North View Post
    Yes...your gang of six would pitch lot of no hitters, as would untold numbers of bums today who can fling a pitch at 95+ Today's bums with lousy W-L would be kings in 1971. Pitch velocity is a *tad* different these days.

    Different eras...why can you not get that? Pitchers back then had to deal with hitters who actively wanted to advance base runners popping one into the field or a grounder as opposed to today's hitters who want to go for a home run or nothing else. I forget the term...natural outcome or some such. A HR, a walk or a strikeout.

    And today's pitchers are far less distracted because there is so much less base stealing and infie!d action. Much easier on the mound these days.

    Pax.
    1971-1975 vs 2014-2018

    Code:
    YEAR  ERA     HR   H/9   BR/9  SO/9  BB/9  SO/BB   SHO     WP    IBB    HBP    BFP      BK
    TOT   3.57  13846  8.59 12.11  5.25  3.32  1.58   1246   5627   6821   3862   732911   674 
    TOT   4.08  26395  8.67 12.13  8.09  3.10  2.61    198   8919   4767   8590   922564   723
    More HR, less shutouts for today's hurlers


    Hitting same era, more IBB, more SAC's, less slugging and HBP (a by product of slugging)

    Code:
    YEAR  AVG  SLG  OBA  OPS     RC      TB       EBH  ISO  SEC  BPA   IBB     HBP   GIDP    SAC    SF
    TOT  .253 .368 .321 .689   78861   239973   43380 .115 .229 .410   6823   3861  15116   8717   5070 
    TOT  .253 .409 .319 .728  109366   338295   71993 .156 .262 .448   4767   8590  18349   5314   6127

    Any pitcher would prefer to pitch to a league with a .368 Slg% vs one with a .409

    As for SB, not that much of difference

    2014-2018 - 12,806/827663 1 SB every 64 AB

    1971-1975 - 10618/651464 1 SB every 61 AB

    Not every team stole bases in the 70's, SB bumped high in 1976 and stayed consistent for a decade and receded

    Tigers

    Code:
    STOLEN BASES                  YEAR         SB   
    1    Tigers                   1974         67   
    2    Tigers                   1975         63   
    3    Tigers                   1971         35   
    4    Tigers                   1973         28   
    5    Tigers                   1972         17   
    
    STOLEN BASES                  YEAR         SB   
    1    Cubs                     1974         78   
    2    Cubs                     1972         69   
    3    Cubs                     1975         67   
    4    Cubs                     1973         65   
    5    Cubs                     1971         44   
    
    
    STOLEN BASES                  YEAR         SB   
    1    Braves                   1973         84   
    2    Braves                   1974         72   
    3    Braves                   1971         57   
    4    Braves                   1975         55   
    5    Braves                   1972         47   
    
    STOLEN BASES                  YEAR         SB   
    1    Indians                  1975        106   
    2    Indians                  1974         79   
    3    Indians                  1973         60   
    4    Indians                  1971         57   
    5    Indians                  1972         49

    1971 -1975 for every 588 batters faced a team threw a shutout

    2014-2018 for every 4,805 batters faced a team threw a shutout
    Last edited by westofyou; 10-24-2019 at 12:31 AM.

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  16. #491
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    Re: 2019 Playoff Thread

    I just think saying the 1971 guys are at least good (or it’s inconclusive) as the 2019 guys is an odd hill to die on.

    Just my opinion but if you can’t agree to that, what can you agree to?

    No snark at all - I don’t get it.
    Last edited by kaldaniels; 10-24-2019 at 01:05 AM.

  17. #492
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    Re: 2019 Playoff Thread

    Quote Originally Posted by kaldaniels View Post
    I just think saying the 1971 guys are at least good (or it’s inconclusive) as the 2019 guys is an odd hill to die on.

    Just my opinion but if you can’t agree to that, what can you agree to?

    No snark at all - I don’t get it.
    Like we all get it, the points about diet and training regimens for historical players have been made a billion times. But you can still judge them relative to their peers and in the context of the average of the league they played in.

    In which case, yeah, I’d agree that modern list of pitchers is in fact still better.
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  19. #493
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    Re: 2019 Playoff Thread

    Homerun Howie


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