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Thread: Reds outfield 2020

  1. #16
    Member Mitri's Avatar
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    Re: Reds outfield 2020

    I like Winker and am completely fine with the Reds keeping him this upcoming season, but trading him might just loosen up the OF situation as well. I'd love to see them trade da Wink, go hard for Castellanos, then find a true CF who doesn't need to be a stud at the plate (JBJ is a potentially quick and cheap example).

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  4. #17
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    Re: Reds outfield 2020

    The Reds major problems offensively are at catcher and middle infield.

    They won't fix that by replacing outfielders.

    Obviously if they move Senzel to second base that creates an opening in CF.

    But generally Reds should be working on ways to replace the starting hitters around .700 OPS (or less) with new players around .800 OPS (or thereabouts, or higher).
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-03-2019 at 11:19 PM.

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  6. #18
    Middle Class Rut TRF's Avatar
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    Re: Reds outfield 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    Just doesnít seem like Senzel in center is a great idea anymore given he had a pretty serious shoulder injury in his throwing arm.

    Iím mostly glad to hear this though. Both that Winker will get more opportunities beyond being a platoon guy, and that Aquino isnít set in stone. He really came back to earth after August, and Iíd like for him to still get playing time. But they need a sure thing out there, IMO.
    eh, not really. It was more sample size than anything else. 17 games from about Sept 1 to Sept 19 where he just was horrible. Over his last 9 games: .257 .325 .571 .896, so he made an adjustment. Got on base more, hit for better power, albeit no where near August. Over the larger sample, his entire year of 2019, not only would I write his name in pen, I'd tattoo it to David Bell's eyelids.

    This offseason and ST 2020 should not keep Aquino from the RF job. He earned it. I'm hoping he just absolutely dominates 2020.

    2019 combined stats for Aquino: .283 .339 .611 1.050 47 HR's.

    Do I think Aquino can average 7 HR's a month for 6 months? Yes. Can he get on base enough to not hurt the team? I believe he can manage a .330+ OBP.

    I'm really not worried about RF. He's the guy for 2020 even if he flames out. RF is not what the Reds need.

    CF? oh yeah... and I think LF too. I'd have no problem with Winker, Ervin and Senzel never stepping foot in the Reds OF as a player for the Cincinnati Reds. It's going to take a Brewers-esque like remaking of the OF to get the Reds to the next level. So right off the bat, the first FA I go after for the OF is Nick Castellanos. I cannot say I know a thing about him defensively, but he's posted pretty good numbers at the plate, is only 28, so you are getting his age prime years and immediately adds a third middle of the order bat to go with Suarez and Aquino. Castellanos in LF.

    Next, CF. I think you have to trade to get this. Jackie Bradley Jr. is my target. He's got the defensive chops, and has power. He's not great, or even good at getting on base, but changing leagues might help. The NL Central is friendlier for hitters. Some think he's coming off a down year. The Reds should take advantage of that.
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  7. #19
    Posting in Dynarama M2's Avatar
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    Re: Reds outfield 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    The Reds major problems offensively are at catcher and middle infield.

    They won't fix that by replacing outfielders.

    Obviously if they move Senzel to second base that creates an opening in CF.

    But generally Reds should be working on ways to replace the starting hitters around .700 OPS (or less) with players around .800 OPS (or thereabouts, or higher).
    The Reds ranked 13th in the NL with -3.1 Wins Above Average in the OF. RF (primarily Puig/Aquino) was at 0.1. CF was at -1.4 and LF was at -1.8. The OF was bad and needs to be fixed.

    They ranked dead last at 2B with -2.4 WAA, 12th at SS with -0.8 and 6th at catcher with -0.2.
    Friends don't let friends fWAR.

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  9. #20
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    Re: Reds outfield 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by TRF View Post
    eh, not really. It was more sample size than anything else. 17 games from about Sept 1 to Sept 19 where he just was horrible. Over his last 9 games: .257 .325 .571 .896, so he made an adjustment. Got on base more, hit for better power, albeit no where near August. Over the larger sample, his entire year of 2019, not only would I write his name in pen, I'd tattoo it to David Bell's eyelids.

    This offseason and ST 2020 should not keep Aquino from the RF job. He earned it. I'm hoping he just absolutely dominates 2020.

    2019 combined stats for Aquino: .283 .339 .611 1.050 47 HR's.

    Do I think Aquino can average 7 HR's a month for 6 months? Yes. Can he get on base enough to not hurt the team? I believe he can manage a .330+ OBP.

    I'm really not worried about RF. He's the guy for 2020 even if he flames out. RF is not what the Reds need.

    CF? oh yeah... and I think LF too. I'd have no problem with Winker, Ervin and Senzel never stepping foot in the Reds OF as a player for the Cincinnati Reds. It's going to take a Brewers-esque like remaking of the OF to get the Reds to the next level. So right off the bat, the first FA I go after for the OF is Nick Castellanos. I cannot say I know a thing about him defensively, but he's posted pretty good numbers at the plate, is only 28, so you are getting his age prime years and immediately adds a third middle of the order bat to go with Suarez and Aquino. Castellanos in LF.

    Next, CF. I think you have to trade to get this. Jackie Bradley Jr. is my target. He's got the defensive chops, and has power. He's not great, or even good at getting on base, but changing leagues might help. The NL Central is friendlier for hitters. Some think he's coming off a down year. The Reds should take advantage of that.
    You’re really massaging his full season numbers there. When it comes down to it, he ended the season with a .316 OBP. His slugging numbers were phenomenal, but mostly based on his eye popping August numbers. Without selective endpoints designed to make his September as good as possible, he went .196/.236/.382 for the last month. I don’t really care if he had a dead cat bounce the last 10 games, those numbers are extremely concerning.

    I don’t mind him getting playing time next season, but really the only way I’m comfortable with him starting full time is if they substantially upgrade all of catcher, shortstop, and centerfield/second base. Otherwise they need a hefty insurance policy for RF, because Aquino has major bust potential.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Sheed View Post
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  10. #21
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    Reds outfield 2020

    I agree that putting full stock in Aquino is risky, but we know he has power and he impressed more than any 2019 call up. At the same time, heís the only OF on this roster that I want to invest in. Winker needs to DH or 1B and if NLDH or Votto retirement isnít near, we need to move on.

    Question: we know Aquino needs support, so why would we supplement the OF with an anemic JB Jr? I swear I do not see the facination some of you have with this guy when he hasnít hit above .250 since 2016 and the Reds need OBP types. Heís not as anemic as Hamilton, but havenít we learned our lesson on Defense only guys?

    I sign Corey Dickerson for LF, Marte to CF and trade Winker to AL so he can DH/1B

    If Marte isnít available, the send Winker, Mahle, ++ to Royals for Whit Merrified. Could be useful in OF or 2B depending on Senzelís time table.
    Last edited by SomeCallMeTim; 10-03-2019 at 06:11 PM.

  11. #22
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    Re: Reds outfield 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Wonderful Monds View Post
    You’re really massaging his full season numbers there. When it comes down to it, he ended the season with a .316 OBP. His slugging numbers were phenomenal, but mostly based on his eye popping August numbers. Without selective endpoints designed to make his September as good as possible, he went .196/.236/.382 for the last month. I don’t really care if he had a dead cat bounce the last 10 games, those numbers are extremely concerning.

    I don’t mind him getting playing time next season, but really the only way I’m comfortable with him starting full time is if they substantially upgrade all of catcher, shortstop, and centerfield/second base. Otherwise they need a hefty insurance policy for RF, because Aquino has major bust potential.
    What massaging? Those were his numbers period. combined at two levels. You are saying he came down to earth in August. I pointed out it was really a 17 game span where he was terrible, probably trying to live up to his phenomenal start, playing in September for the first time in his career, and just teams making an adjustment. He adjusted back over his final 11 games.

    It isn't that those 17 games don't count, They do, and he was TERRIBLE. For 2.5 weeks. Its just that he had 548 PA's over 2 levels and you are saying he was brought back to earth because of 17 games.

    Why is it that 17 games at the start of September are more important than the 11 that followed or the 29 that preceded it? I'm massaging? You are ignoring the bulk of his 2019.

    He had a bad month overall. Context says he was adjusted to, and made an adjustment. Context says he faced the Cubs, Mets, Brewers and Pirates over those last 11 games, and three of those teams were in the WC hunt. Context and sample size say he played well enough to be the RF for the Reds next year without the team looking for any replacement until or if he plays his way out of the spot.
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  13. #23
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    Re: Reds outfield 2020

    I don't understand the Castellanos attraction. Isn't he basically just Winker with a bit more seasoning? How much are you paying for that 1 win upgrade over a Winker platoon?
    Games are won on run differential -- scoring more than your opponent. Runs are runs, scored or prevented they all count the same. Worry about scoring more and allowing fewer, not which positions contribute to which side of the equation or how "consistent" you are at your current level of performance.

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  15. #24
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    Re: Reds outfield 2020

    Trading Winker seems counter productive. Heís an .830 bat the last two years. Letís add to that not trade it away.

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  17. #25
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    Re: Reds outfield 2020

    IMO, 2B/ CF is one key place to add production. Senzel's ability to switch between positions makes that easier.

    C and SS are others that need fixing for next season.

    If possible, a corner OF/ backup 1B would also be nice.

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  19. #26
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    Re: Reds outfield 2020

    Remember when the Reds brought in a seasoned veteran like Scott Rowland and Kevin Mitchell? Guys that played the game the right way and knew what and how it took to win.

    That guy in the FA group is Brett Gardner. Sign him up for 2 years with an option for a 3rd, pencil him into the lineup at Left Field and bat him between Geno and the Punisher and watch what he does to the clubhouse. Our younger talented guys need a vet that will crack the whip and Joey, God love him, is too focused on himself to be that kind of a leader and he's been part of the culture of losing for over half a decade. The young guys don't know what they don't know and they need to be exposed to a winning culture.

    To help the infield sign Wilmer Flores and slot him at the top of the order and plug him in at 2nd base. Sign Iglesias or Galvis for SS and go from there.

    The offense would be in a better spot but then I push my chips to the middle of the table and sign MadBum. Failing that I concentrate on Wade Miley but adding either of those to Gray, Bauer, Castillo and Disco and I like our chances every day, even with this year's offense.

    Add a couple of bullpen arms like closer Steve Cishek and lefty Matt Albers to our other bullpen guys and we'd be cookin'.

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  21. #27
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    Re: Reds outfield 2020

    Winker/Senzel/Aquino just doesnít feel like an OF competing for a playoff spot

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  23. #28
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    Re: Reds outfield 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by M2 View Post
    The Reds ranked 13th in the NL with -3.1 Wins Above Average in the OF. RF (primarily Puig/Aquino) was at 0.1. CF was at -1.4 and LF was at -1.8. The OF was bad and needs to be fixed.

    They ranked dead last at 2B with -2.4 WAA, 12th at SS with -0.8 and 6th at catcher with -0.2.

    Winker hit .830 OPS but got injured. Ervin was wasted in the minors for too long.. Senzel was a rookie and is expected to do better. Aquino came up late. There’s plenty to work with offensively in the OF in 2020.

    Not so for middle infield or catcher. Right now, those positions have little upside offensively.

    WAR includes defensive metrics, Reds’ OF isn’t the best, but right now the issue is offense.
    Last edited by Kc61; 10-03-2019 at 11:38 PM.

  24. #29
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    Re: Reds outfield 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Kc61 View Post
    Winker hit .830 OPS but got injured. Ervin was wasted in the minors for too long.. Senzel was a rookie and is expected to do better. Aquino came up late. There’s plenty to work with offensively in the OF in 2020.

    Not so for middle infield or catcher. Right now, those positions have little upside offensively.

    WAR includes defensive metrics, Reds’ OF isn’t the best, but right now the issue is offense.
    The issue is the whole mix. The Reds have got to find ways to get better. The OF is screaming "Over here!" Seems pretty certain they're hunting for a new CF. What they do in the corners is anyone's guess.
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  26. #30
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    Re: Reds outfield 2020

    Winkerís OPS is much less impressive when you consider heís a platoon guy

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